The world after coronavirus
POLITICO explores the impacts of the pandemic on daily
life, democracy and the EU.
By POLITICO
4/29/20, 1:20 PM CET Updated 5/4/20, 6:42 AM CET
The world
we knew before COVID-19 is gone. The one that comes after is still at least
partly up to us.
The crisis
has put entire countries under lockdown, devastated countless businesses,
killed hundreds of thousands of people and upended hundreds of millions, if not
billions, of lives.
The
question now: What comes next?
As the
world begins to look at what it will be like to live life with the coronavirus
— or the threat of future outbreaks — it’s already clear that the pandemic has
the potential to disrupt industries, accelerate cultural and economic trends,
or be used by policymakers or advocates gunning for transformative agendas.
POLITICO
journalists asked dozens of experts and policymakers what they believe the
epidemic will — or, in their view, should — change. Here are their answers.
If current
trends continue, the coronavirus crisis will...
... kill the office.
The
commercial real estate market stands to take a serious hit because of the
coronavirus crisis. Many businesses are not expected to reopen once the crisis
passes — leaving much unoccupied office space. Others may allow their employees
to continue working from home and opt to save cash by taking advantage of more
flexible co-working spaces.
Despite
occasional frustrations that come with remote working, managers in some
industries have discovered how practical videoconferencing can be. "It’s
much more effective than having hundreds of meeting[s]," said Warsaw Mayor
Rafał Trzaskowski, "only now people realize how easy it is to use them.”
Hubertus Heil, Germany's labor minister, is drafting a law to give people the
right to work from home even after the crisis.
According
to consulting firm Global Workplace Analytics, two years from now up to 30
percent of workers could be working from home multiple days per week.
The vacated
commercial spaces may be of use to cities like Madrid, Rome and Amsterdam,
which for years have struggled with a housing crisis and rising residential
rents.
Even
offices that continue to function will have to adjust in order to prepare for
the pandemics that scientists cited by the World Economic Forum predict will be
increasingly common in the future because of globalization and climate change.
Paternoster
lifts and “Shabbat elevators” — which run without anyone having to press
germ-covered buttons — could become more common, and office spaces are likely
to be more spaced out, as evidenced by examples like the Six Feet Office
developed by real estate services firm Cushman & Wakefield.
— Aitor
Hernández-Morales
...
devastate the restaurant sector.
It's hard
to imagine Europe not returning to its culture of eating out and open-air
cafés. But even when the lockdowns are over, the experience of China shows that
people are very reluctant to return to dining out.
According
to Adrian Cummins, a board member of HOTREC, a hospitality trade body, it will
take some time before the situation for restaurants returns to anywhere near
how things were before the lockdowns.
"What
we need to do in our sector now, which is the most important thing, is we need
to restore confidence," he said. "We need to make sure that consumers
are confident that going to a restaurant is a right thing."
In China,
the restaurants that have reopened have had to introduce extra safety measures:
masks for staff, sufficient spacing between tables, and temperature checks.
Similar measures could soon be introduced in Europe, which may make it hard for
restaurants that make it through the immediate crisis to operate. Spacing out
diners inevitably means fewer covers — and that could be enough to kill off
many businesses.
Even if
consumers want to eat out, they might find their favorite places are gone.
Cummins estimates that in Ireland, where he lives, 40-50 percent of restaurants
might not reopen. That is why, he says, the European Commission and national
governments should help businesses with non-refundable grant aid or
zero-percent loans.
— Zosia
Wanat
... shorten
food supply chains.
One of the
first tangible impacts of the coronavirus that most Europeans witnessed outside
hospitals was the panic-buying and empty shelves fueled by fears of shortages.
Later, national border restrictions made it hard for truckers to transport
goods across countries and for seasonal farmworkers to harvest fields.
Some argue
the crisis should prompt profound reflection on the relationship between
Europeans and our food, from what we're eating now under lockdown, to what we
should be eating when it's all over — as well as where it comes from.
The
European Agriculture Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski argues that one of the
main lessons is that Europe needs to grow its own crops, so it depends less on
outside sources and bolsters the bloc's own food security.
“We have to
have our own food, produced on our fields, by our own farmers, and we have to
take better care of local markets, shorten those supply chains,” he said in an
interview with POLITICO.
Farming is
already heavily subsidized by the Common Agricultural Policy, and the bloc is a
net food exporter. But within the EU, the food supply in some individual
countries is reliant on transportation and workers from abroad.
“There’s
absolutely no doubt in my mind that there’ll be more and more calls for
re-localized, 're-territorialized' food systems,” said Olivier De Schutter,
co-chair of the International Panel of Experts on Sustainable Food Systems.
"Never before has there been such an incredible interest in short supply
chains,” he added.
De Schutter
said the EU could improve some of its policies — on public procurement,
competition, the CAP scheme and its nascent Farm to Fork strategy to improve
sustainability — to give advantages to local, smaller and organic farmers.
— Zosia
Wanat
...
encourage people to eat better.
The crisis
has also changed consumers' relationship with their food. National lockdowns
and restaurant closures have nudged Europeans into their kitchens to bake bread
and banana cake and more interesting evening meals. Many are also choosing the
closest grocer to them, instead of opting for shopping at big supermarkets.
According
to a YouGov survey conducted at the beginning of April, 42 percent of British
people said they value food more than they did before the crisis, 38 percent
reported cooking more often from scratch, and 33 percent said they throw away
less food.
The poll
also showed a clear majority wanted to see at least some of the personal or
social changes they have experienced over the last month continue.
"Our
expectation is that hopefully the consumers are going to regain some of the
respect for food that previous generations had," said Mette Lykke, the CEO
of Too Good To Go, an app that aims to reduce food waste. "For a long
time, we haven’t really appreciated the true value of our food; we’ve just
taken it for granted.
"[Most
people] have actually realized that we can live in a quite different way and
still be pretty well off," Lykke said, adding that consumers might turn to
better-quality food. "A lot of this stuff we used to buy, we might not
necessarily be interested in anymore."
The
pandemic has led to a surge in demand for organic and sustainable foods,
according to Ecovia Intelligence, a research company. In France, for example,
some organic food shops are reporting sales increases of over 40 percent.
— Zosia
Wanat
... expand
protections for gig workers.
The
coronavirus crisis has divided workers into two classes: those who can work
from home, and those forced to risk infection. While online platforms such as
Uber and Deliveroo argue that their model offers people flexibility and control
over their earnings, the crisis has shown how little freedom workers really
have.
The digital
proletariat — those working for food-delivery, ride-hailing and e-commerce
platforms — have little choice but to show up in order to serve remote
customers. “The myth of the empowered gig economy worker has been fatally
wounded by the COVID-19 crisis,” said Nicola Countouris, professor of labor law
at University College London.
Governments
will have to rethink social protections and labor rights for new kinds of work,
especially as the newly laid-off turn to platforms for income. “There is going
to be an increase of online work, but it won’t all be of good quality and with
enough protection, especially not in times of shock,” said Anna Thomas,
director of the Institute for the Future of Work.
As the
number of precarious workers grows, policy debates will heat up around how gig
worker should be classified and support for policies like a universal basic
income may gain traction, Thomas said. Spain has announced it is rolling out
universal basic income permanently. If it succeeds, others may follow.
Gig economy
companies have been adamant that their workers should not be classed as
"employees." That means that many are not entitled to employee
protection from the state, nor to bailouts for businesses offered to help them
weather the crisis. Once COVID-19 subsides, that will be harder to sustain.
— Melissa
Heikkilä
... move
grocery shopping online.
With
consumers too scared to leave their homes to shop for groceries, retailers have
had no choice but to go online. Some of them, like Britain's Tesco or Belgium's
Delhaize, already had online platforms, while others have had to get creative.
France's
Carrefour teamed up with UberEats to boost its delivery service, while Poland's
biggest retailer Biedronka started to partner with the Spanish startup Glovo to
deliver food to customers' doorsteps. Some smaller stores, such as the Parisian
organic shop Kilogramme, built their own e-commerce services within 24 hours.
This trend
will continue when the crisis is over, said Christian Verschueren, director
general of EuroCommerce, a trade body. "If we learned one thing through
this [crisis, it] is that digital transformation has been accelerated and will
be accelerated," he said.
"People
who have never gone online for their groceries have now started to go online
for groceries,” he added. “I think all food retailers have seen an increase in
e-commerce, and I think that will definitely not go away."
Could that
mean supermarkets as we know them will disappear, or will be run by machines?
In the U.S., Amazon's technology for cashier-free shops is becoming
increasingly popular, but in Europe the change might not come that fast.
Verschueren
said the robotization of retail on the Continent will continue — think more
contactless payment options and self-checkouts to reduce opportunities to
transmit the virus — but the technology can't totally replace human workers,
especially in times of crisis.
"Even
with the best artificial intelligence and the best robotization, I don’t think
the sector would have been able to deal better with the supply, because at the
end of the day, it’s actually the human invention and the human resilience that
was able to cope with an increasing demand," he said.
— Zosia
Wanat
... make
the bicycle king.
Will
bicycles rule the post-corona city? Campaigners and local officials hope so.
From Berlin
to Bogotá, and Vancouver to Milan, cities are already taking steps to broaden
bike lanes to allow people to cycle while keeping a safe social distance from
others. City residents are also enjoying the cleaner air from a massive drop in
city traffic — a feature of lockdown life they may want to retain after
restrictions begin to ease.
“Moving
around on bike or on foot is … the only real pandemic-resilient mobility there
is,” a coalition of activists wrote in an open letter to German Transport
Minister Andreas Scheuer earlier this month.
Urban
mobility is a zero-sum game: The more space is given to cyclists, the more
restrictions need to be imposed on cars. With vehicle traffic suppressed,
campaigners see an opportunity to make a shift to two-wheeled transport,
although it remains to be seen whether commuters will stay out of their cars once
confinement restrictions are lifted — particularly if they are nervous about
public transport.
In
Brussels, authorities are moving to impose a 20-kilometer-per-hour speed limit
on motor vehicles within the congested center to give more space to cyclists
and pedestrians.
“The
changes have to be permanent to be an improvement,” said Morten Kabell, a
former mayor for environmental affairs in Copenhagen and co-CEO of the European
Cyclists’ Federation. “Wider and more bicycle lanes can transport more people
than car lanes can … and it’s cheaper to build bike infrastructure.”
Spain’s
environment minister, Teresa Ribera, has backed efforts to shift transport
infrastructure, while France’s environment minister, Élisabeth Borne, has said
she’s making cash available for cities to extend cycling paths during the
pandemic. Campaigners across Germany are calling for wider bike lanes, strict
speed limits and “larger, car-free shared spaces.” They also want to turn
entire neighborhoods into bike-only zones.
In an effort
to create more public space for people to walk around without being crammed on
narrow sidewalks, Vienna has banned cars on some streets to create new “meeting
zones” instead.
— Kalina
Oroschakoff and Josh Posaner
... redraw
city maps.
"Think
global, act local" has long been the mantra of the environmental and
social justice movements. The coronavirus crisis might help trigger its broader
adoption, and change cities in the process.
The ongoing
lockdown has expanded our digital and local lives while contracting physical
and global ones. Mark Carney, the former governor of the Bank of England,
argued in the Economist that the trend will continue. "Even afterward,
local resilience will be prized over global efficiency," he wrote.
City
officials and campaigners are already pushing for a rethink of urban planning,
to reclaim public space and improve local living. Months before the appearance
of the coronavirus, Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo made the concept of the “15-minute
city” a pillar of her reelection campaign.
The
Socialist proposed turning the French capital into a collective of
self-sufficient communities with everything — groceries, parks, gyms, health
centers, schools and workplaces — just a 15-minute walk away from every
resident’s doorstep.
COVID-19-related
restrictions have inadvertently turned Hidalgo’s plan — which was meant to
reduce the pollution and stress created by daily commutes — into a reality,
with Parisians forbidden under most circumstances to stray more than 1
kilometer from their homes.
It would
not be the first time that a crisis was used to revolutionize urban planning in
Europe: Lisbon’s utilitarian grid layout was developed as the Marquis of Pombal
sought to rebuild the Portuguese capital after a devastating 1755 earthquake.
Fathers of
the “Red Vienna” city sought to address the housing crisis created by post-WWI
urban migration by building grand self-sufficient living communities,
exemplified by Karl-Marx Hof, a massive, housing complex that contains schools,
health clinics, athletic infrastructure, gardens, beauty salons and shops.
— Kalina
Oroschakoff and Aitor Hernández-Morales
... push
public transport into the red.
The global
health crisis is accelerating a shift away from cash payments for public transport.
Bus drivers in Berlin and London, for example, are now sealed in their cabins,
and tickets can no longer be bought on board.
That's
accelerated the shift to app-based ticketing systems. And where physical ticket
controls have vanished completely, some travelers are enjoying (effectively)
free transit.
Even once
things start to gradually return to normal, decreased use of public transport
will mean services will run way beneath profitability. Local authorities will
have to provide major subsidies to maintain transport links, or risk the
mothballing of tram and subway routes.
Even before
the pandemic, authorities in places such as Luxembourg and Vienna had already
moved to make public transport free (or heavily discounted to €1 per day) as
part of efforts to get cars off the road.
Other
transit changes will be more subtle, but are likely to stick. For example,
carriage doors now open automatically on many subway systems, with messages for
commuters to avoid regular touch points such as handles that could spread the
infection.
To counter
fears of contagion, Transport for London, the authority that manages and
regulates the U.K. capital’s transport network, has promised to deploy
long-lasting anti-viral cleaning fluids.
— Josh
Posaner
... ground
the airline industry.
Videoconferencing
has taken the place of face-to-face meetings (and air miles that come with
them) as big companies like Facebook, Rio Tinto and BP froze travel even before
government lockdowns shuttered their employees at home.
The longer
that continues, the less likely that the old corporate travel bonanza is to
return. Companies will be able to evaluate closely how productivity under
lockdown compares — and whether the millions spent on corporate travel are
really worth it.
With the
future uncertain, Facebook has ruled out holding events with more than 50
people until at least June 2021 and has banned business travel until at least
June this year. Others may follow suit.
Airlines
are noticing. The airline lobby IATA is generally bullish when it comes to
travel demand, but even its chief economist, Brian Pearce, admitted the forced
break from air travel could change habits.
"If we
see a bigger increase in videoconferencing technology as a substitute for
business meetings, there is a possibility people might shun long-haul," he
said. Airlines who had built their brand around adding "a personal
touch" might have to rethink that too.
Once the
crisis subsides, leisure travel may not be the same either. Under lockdown,
people are staying closer to home, and it’s unclear whether holidaymakers —
nervous about what they might catch — will be itching to get on a plane once
restrictions are lifted.
Nearby
locations tend to be cheaper, and getting somewhere by car is less risky, at
least from an infectious disease point of view, than being packed in a plane.
Ryanair CEO
Michael O’Leary says he will counter that thinking with a blitz of low ticket
prices. He predicts that families cooped up in their homes will be desperate to
fly once the shackles are off.
His
competitors have taken a more conservative line. Many have deferred plane
deliveries, believing it will take years before air travel returns to
pre-pandemic levels.
— Saim
Saeed
... change
the airport experience.
Airports
have long been countries' gatekeepers, but the pandemic may require them to be
de facto doctors too. Since the pandemic hit, numerous countries have installed
facilities including temperature checks and COVID-19 testing equipment in
terminals to screen passengers.
Fears of a
second wave of the disease or some future pathogen mean those facilities might
remain for longer than the outbreak itself. In some cases, airlines themselves
are testing passengers for the disease.
The need
for social distancing will also present challenges. Maintaining that in lines
at security and immigration will require more space and different layouts.
Passengers
are also likely to find that they will encounter fewer staff while passing
through security and into their plane, so as to minimize infection risk.
Design
changes will also mean fewer opportunities to pick up an infection by touching
surfaces. That means more cleaning, no check-in screens and more contactless
security and identification checks.
The
development of facial recognition technologies, long in the works, could be
expedited to track passengers through the airport and reduce the need for
physical checks — though such measures would come with privacy and surveillance
concerns.
With a
predicted recession and demand in free fall, companies and policymakers are
also considering shelving airport expansion plans.
"Returning
as quickly as possible to full operational capabilities under a 'new normal'
... will involve new requirements for our staff, facilities, services and
processes," said lobby group ACI-Europe's Director General Olivier
Jankovec.
"Understanding
what these requirements will be and shaping them is of crucial importance, as
well as addressing longer-term impacts on a full range of issues — from airport
layout and equipment to our economic and business models."
— Saim
Saeed
... expose
tech giants as public utilities.
In times of
crisis, people typically turn to government authorities for help. With
COVID-19, they've also turned to Big Tech.
Facebook
has teamed up with national public health agencies to keep people informed;
Google has peppered search results with the latest updates on how to keep safe;
Amazon has become an arm of many countries' postal services, as people rely on
the e-commerce giant for everything from groceries to toilet paper.
That trend
— of treating some of Silicon Valley's biggest names as de facto public
utilities — will not ebb as the number of global fatalities linked to the
coronavirus eventually subsides.
By
providing up-to-the-minute advice, guidance and logistics, these companies have
cemented themselves in public life even more so than they had done
pre-COVID-19. Pulling back from that will be difficult, if not impossible.
The
consequences are likely to be felt across society. Regular interactions with
government agencies and other public bodies will often also involve Big Tech.
Think a national tax authority providing updates on WhatsApp, or Amazon
delivering medical supplies to the elderly on behalf of a public heath agency.
The lines between public bodies and these private companies will become
blurred.
The effects
of labeling Big Tech as public utilities could go two ways. It may cement their
position in society, driving off competitors and making them quasi-equals to
government agencies.
Or it may
force regulators to clamp down on their activities, limiting their revenue
sources as is done with other public utilities. Much will depend on how these
companies perform during the crisis — and how governments react in the
aftermath.
— Mark Scott
... strip
away privacy rights.
"Many
short-term emergency measures will become a fixture of life. That is the nature
of emergencies. They fast-forward historical processes," wrote Israeli
philosopher Yuval Noah Harari in late March, as the West woke up to the fact
that it too would have to deal with a deadly disease that many thought would
remain far away.
For
democracies that hold fundamental rights dear, that has meant some painful
soul-searching as governments have turned to phone tracking and other
surveillance measures to tame the outbreak.
Officials
have trotted out reassurances — that these are extraordinary times, and that
intrusive technology deployed now will be wound down once the crisis is over —
but many fear the genie is now out of the bottle.
As the EU's
data protection supervisor Wojciech Wiewiórowski said at a webinar recently:
“If we create the system of tracking … it will stay here."
Even if we
decide we want to "come back to the world without the contact tracing,
without the location tracking, the weapons, the tools will be around
anyway," he added.
— Vincent
Manancourt
... empower
the EU in public health.
Europe's
initial response to the coronavirus looked chaotic and uncoordinated: flight
bans, border closures and blocks on exports of protective gear by national
capitals that weren't talking to each other.
Brussels
was a sideshow because it does not have much power over health matters. “The
truth is that when it comes to public health, the Union has done what its
member nations wanted it to do: not much,” public health expert Scott Greer
wrote in the New York Times.
But what if
the EU could lay down the law — literally?
The crisis
has convinced many that the current setup doesn't work. More than 6,000 people,
including former prime ministers, commissioners and a Parliament president,
signed a petition arguing that it is time to make health a shared EU
competence, and give the bloc the ability to act as a federal state in health
emergencies.
Providing
Brussels with more health competence — in some form at least — has also been
backed by French President Emmanuel Macron and some current commissioners.
Under the
health federalists’ vision, Brussels could have acted earlier and more
decisively by activating an EU-wide plan to harmonize testing and unify
lockdown strategies.
It would
have been able to purchase masses of protective gear from the outset. (It took
weeks after a health ministers meeting before the EU launched its first
procurement effort.)
Brussels
could have played air-traffic controller: moving medical staff to countries
harder hit, and patients to countries with a greater capacity to treat them.
Such
measures would mean a massive increase in power, which in turn would mean
reopening EU treaties — an idea that strikes fear into the heart of even the
most committed Europhile. But with scientists predicting the arrival of future
pandemics, it could prove essential.
— Jillian Deutsch
… digitally
transform the European Parliament.
The idea of
an entirely digital European Parliament now doesn't looks so crazy.
“This
crisis is showing everybody that the digital world has arrived,” said Esteban
González Pons, a Spanish MEP and vice president of the conservative European
People’s Party. “We are at the beginning of the digital Parliament.”
In March,
Parliament President David Sassoli canceled all plenary sessions in Strasbourg
until July, advised MEPs to work remotely and later introduced online voting
and virtual committee meetings. The measures were unprecedented.
González
Pons said that the need for MEPs to spend money on travel could be re-examined
in the future, although scrapping trips to Strasbourg is “another issue,"
he said, as “we are obliged by the treaties.”
Other MEPs
saw the experience of going entirely digital as a way to improve their
relationship with the outside world.
Nathalie
Loiseau, a French MEP from the centrist Renew Europe group, said she will
participate in a videoconference with MPs in France, “something we had
struggled to put in place in normal times.”
Daniel
Freund, a Green MEP from Germany, said he had organized webinars on EU-related
themes “almost every day” since the lockdown started.
But for
many, tech solutions are no substitute for face-to-face business. “Technical
solutions do by no means replace physical meetings and social interaction,”
said German Socialist MEP Gabriele Bischoff.
Loiseau,
who is also the chairwoman of the Parliament's Defense and Security
Subcommittee, agrees. “Clearly, the work conditions were not optimal.
Everything took twice more time, we had to call each other before a meeting to
prepare, and after the meeting to debrief. It’s much less interactive.”
— Maïa de
La Baume
… turn the European Union inward.
The EU's
geopolitical ambitions look increasingly likely to be a casualty of the crisis
— at least in the short term.
To bolster
the EU's nascent military capabilities — and hence diplomatic clout — the
Commission originally proposed that the next long-term EU budget include a
European Defense Fund of €13 billion, to promote military cooperation, plus a
separate off-budget European Peace Facility of €10.5 billion for military
operations.
But with
economic survival now the priority — the International Monetary Fund expects
the eurozone to contract by 7.5 percent this year — there will be urgent calls to
put the bloc's money to other uses, diplomats say. "In the short term ...
in a moment of economic reconstruction, the last priority will be the military
one,” said Nathalie Tocci, director of the Istituto Affari Internazionali, a
Rome-based think tank, and a special adviser to European High Representative
for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell.
Geopolitical
considerations will not be off the agenda forever though, she said. "In
the longer term, the theme will bounce back as the U.S. and China are on a
[conflicting] path ... and it’s increasingly clear that [it] is very expensive
for us to be simply the battleground between the two superpowers,” said Tocci.
EU leaders
stressed the bloc's "strategic autonomy" in a joint statement
following their first virtual meeting in March shortly after lockdowns were
imposed across Europe. That means the EU's ability to protect key assets and
the goal of becoming less economically dependent on external actors such as
China.
“What we
have understood is that first we need to be less dependent and to have our
economy back on track, then we can really play a role as a geopolitical actor,”
argued a senior EU diplomat. Others are less optimistic and say that with 27
different interests to reconcile, the goal of strategic autonomy "could
take decades to become real” according to a second senior EU diplomat.
— Jacopo
Barigazzi
... break
the euro — or make it stronger.
Since
creating the euro, European leaders have dreamed that their shared currency
will one day rival the almighty dollar.
The
previous European Commission drew up a battle plan to use the euro as a counter
to the U.S., whose stranglehold over dollar-denominated trade in commodities
like oil lets it run unilateral policies such as sanctions on Iran — and impose
fines on EU banks for violating them.
Commission
President Ursula von der Leyen has also taken up the challenge, mandating
Executive Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis to make the euro a “strategic asset
for our Union.”
“This will
include increasing the global use of the euro for payments, as a reserve
currency and for debt issuance,” she wrote in his mission letter.
For that to
happen, however, Europe will need strong economic growth, said Guntram Wolf,
the director of the Brussels think tank Bruegel. Instead, the Continent is on
course for its biggest decline since the Great Depression.
“No one
wants to invest in your economy if there’s no growth,” Wolf said, stressing the
importance of the EU crafting an economic recovery fund. “The growth story is
really, really important.”
Even if
growth comes back strong, the euro club is lacking a safe asset for investors
to buy, equivalent to U.S. Treasury securities. Northern European countries
have repeatedly spurned the idea of shared euro bonds for fear that their
taxpayers would be on the hook for the debt of supposedly profligate southern
countries.
If the
crisis doesn't end up breaking the euro, then there is hope, said Wolf. “If we
can pick out a proper growth strategy and issue some joint debt, which would be
sustainable on the side of stronger and weaker countries, then the EU can get
out of the crisis strengthened — not weakened."
— Bjarke
Smith-Meyer
... make
experts great again.
One of the
shared characteristics of the populist movements that, in their various
incarnations, came to prominence in the past decade was a deliberate fostering
of mistrust in established, academic, informed opinion.
Who needs
people who have studied a subject for years when you have a “very stable
genius” in the White House? Or when the U.K. public has “had enough of
experts”?
The
coronavirus may have changed that.
It’s not
just the sight of some those same populist figureheads now being flanked by
their expert officials at daily press conferences. Scientists warned for years
that a pandemic like this was not only possible but probable. Politicians
concerned with the daily cut and thrust did not pay enough attention. They will
now.
“After the
COVID crisis, it’s reasonable,” wrote former Bank of England Governor Mark
Carney in the Economist, “to expect people to demand … more heed to be given to
the advice of scientific experts.”
In Carney’s
view, “the great test” of whether a new attitude really prevails will be
climate change — governments either mitigate in advance or people will suffer
down the line. There is no social distancing from a heating climate.
Frank
Snowden, a history of medicine professor who specializes in how epidemics
change society, agrees. “It seems to me essential, desirable and good
economics, politics and morals to go about stimulating the economy in ways that
are sustainable in the long term; a green economy,” he said. “That would
protect our planet and protect our health — and put people back to work.”
Who needs
experts? Turns out we all do.
— Charlie
Cooper
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