Brexit: What would no deal mean?
Published3
days ago
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48511379
Talks
are continuing between the UK and the European Union about a deal on their
future relationship.
But both
sides say the conditions for an agreement are still "not there" - so,
the discussions could end with no deal.
What would change?
It would
mean significant differences in the way we live and work.
Prices
could go up for the goods the UK buys and sells from and to the EU. That's
because the UK and EU would trade on World Trade Organization (WTO) terms - the
basic rules for countries without trade deals.
The EU
would impose taxes (known as tariffs) on goods coming from the UK. The average
is about 2.8% for non-agricultural products, but 10% for cars and more than 35%
for dairy products. That would put some industries under pressure.
With the
UK imposing tariffs on some EU goods - they could become more expensive. But
the price of some things imported from the rest of the world could fall because
their tariffs are being cut.
Food
standards for UK exports could also be a problem. Without agreement that UK
rules are acceptable in the EU, produce being sold by the UK could be stopped
at the border, causing delays.
Steak and chips
Long
queues for lorries are possible because there would be more border checks. The
UK is delaying having full checks for goods arriving from the EU until 1 July.
But it is feared EU lorry drivers might want to avoid the UK altogether if
there are long delays.
Less
choice of food is a danger, according to some supermarket chains, who have said
fresh food will be particularly affected. They might try to fly replacements in
from elsewhere, but that would increase costs.
Northern
Ireland is the subject of separate talks on how an agreement to avoid a hard
border would work, but a free trade deal would have made them much easier.
It's not
just trade that would be affected by no deal, as further details were expected
in other areas.
Fishing
has been particularly important during the trade talks. Without a deal, non-UK
fishing boats would lose access to UK waters and vice versa. It is feared there
could be confrontations if boats try to continue to fish where they have
traditionally done so. There are also concerns UK fish exports to the EU would
be badly hit by tariffs.
Co-operation
on security and data-sharing will become more difficult, causing problems for
cross-border investigations. The UK would immediately lose access to databases
of things like fingerprints, criminal records and wanted persons.
There
are big questions about services. The UK has been waiting for a decision about
whether the EU will recognise UK rules for financial services. Without that it
will be difficult for UK firms to operate in the EU. Some banks have already
moved offices and staff to EU countries.
The
supply of medicines could be vulnerable to disruption at Channel ports, with
particular worries about those with a short shelf life. There are plans in
place to ensure coronavirus vaccines reach the UK.
Other deals were also possible
Talks
separate to the main trade deal were also being worked on. They cover areas
including:
Healthcare:
The government was in talks for a healthcare arrangement that would replace
EHIC, which helps people in need of treatment in EU countries.
Education:
It was also in talks about the possibility of continuing to participate in
Erasmus, which helps students study in other countries.
Driving:
Talks are still going on about whether UK nationals will need International
Driving Permits for short visits to EU countries. And the European Commission
is understood to be considering whether green cards to prove people have valid
insurance are required.
Pensions:
There has not yet been an agreement for people claiming their UK state pensions
in an EU country that would mean their pensions increase every year.
Pets: We
do not yet know whether the UK will be a listed country for a new type of pet
passports. It could mean you need to get your pet examined by a vet each time
you travel.
What happens next if there is no trade deal?
If the
UK gets to the end of the year without a trade deal with the EU, that does not
mean there will never be one.
It has
been suggested all the problems it would cause for both sides would focus minds
on reaching a deal as soon as possible.
But
there are those on both sides who say it could be many months into 2021 before
talks were to resume in this scenario.
Some things have been decided.
Whether
or not there is a trade deal, several things will change on 1 January.
For
trips to Europe, you'll have to make sure there is at least six months left on
your passport and wait in a different queue at the border.
Duty
free shopping will return, but there will be limits on the amount of alcohol
and tobacco you can bring into the UK from the EU without paying extra duty.
The
right to live and work in the EU will no longer be automatic for UK nationals,
unless they already live in an EU country by the end of 2020.
A new
immigration system will come into force in the UK, involving a points-based
system for people wanting to work.
Trade
with the EU for UK companies will involve customs declarations, certificates,
licences and special labelling for some types of foods, plants and live
animals.
Correction
8 December: A previous version of this story said UK nationals would not need
International Driving Permits in EU countries from 1 January next year. In
fact, talks are still ongoing on this issue.
Trump: Farage should negotiate Brexit and 'walk
away' without a deal
By Alastair
Jamieson & Reuters • last
updated: 03/06/2019
On the eve
of his state visit to the UK, Donald Trump said Britain should send Nigel
Farage to negotiate Brexit with the European Union and “walk away” if it
doesn't offer a deal.
The U.S.
President and First Lady, Melania Trump, are due to arrive in London on Monday
for a full state visit.
Their trip
comes at the most fragile time in Britain, which is hopelessly divided over
Brexit, and as the ruling Conservative party chooses a successor for Prime
Minister Theresa May.
In an
interview with the Sunday Times, Trump said Britain should refuse to pay the
€50 billion divorce bill if Brussels does not give ground and should send
arch-Brexiteer Farage to conduct talks.
“If they
don’t get what they want, I would walk away,” he said. “If you don’t get a fair
deal, you walk away.”
The
candidates already in the Conservative leadership race are split between those
willing to accept a “no-deal” and those opposed.
In the “no
deal” camp are former foreign secretary Boris Johnson, whom Trump praised in an
interview with The Sun newspaper on Friday, along with former Brexit minister
Dominic Raab and home secretary Sajid Javid.
Trump said
it was a mistake to ignore Farage after his success last month in the European
Parliament elections.
“I like
Nigel a lot. He has a lot to offer – he is a very smart person,” Trump said.
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