The threat of a no-deal Brexit was nothing more than a
hoax
Tom Kibasi
The imaginary doomsday scenario was never credible to
the EU but was a powerful force to shape UK domestic politics
Wed 30 Dec
2020 14.30 GMT
The threat
of a no-deal Brexit has always been a hoax – and it has been one of the most
successful deceptions in British political history. It was never a real option
but has systematically lowered domestic expectations for a deal and allowed the
government to avoid any serious scrutiny. Boris Johnson played the role of
no-deal madman with aplomb, as if he had been born for it. Which of course he
believes he was.
The idea
that no deal was a plausible option never made any sense. When Theresa May
first threatened that “no deal is better than a bad deal”, in her January 2017
Lancaster House speech, it was a bluff. It was an attempt to act as if Britain
– by far the weaker party in the negotiations – had some leverage. It didn’t.
No deal was
always the worst possible option: it would have been an act of colossal
self-harm, disrupting food and medical supplies and undermining global
financial stability. Even without the pandemic, it would have knocked the UK
and European economies into recession. It would have been bad for the EU but
far worse for Britain. No prime minister – or government – would have ever
survived the fallout. It was never a real option.
The obvious
alternative to a deal was never some imaginary doomsday after 31 December but
the continuation of the status quo. Despite the rhetoric, transitionary
agreements that kept everything the same for “as short as possible, as long as
necessary” have been the revealed preference of both the EU and the British
government as Brexit deadlines have come and gone. It would have been no
different this time.
No deal was
never a credible threat to the EU, but rather a powerful force to shape
domestic politics. The strategic geniuses in the Tory party briefed the British
press that to secure a good deal, the EU had to believe that Britain would walk
away. When Dominic Raab was Brexit secretary, the government produced a series
of “no-deal notices” that only served to highlight the idiocy of such a policy.
But the threat never carried real credibility in Brussels because the
asymmetrical impact was so blindingly obvious.
The real
policy of the government has been that any deal is better than no deal. The
deal that has been struck is a lopsided agreement that secures the EU’s
economic interests while undermining ours. In many respects, it offers poorer
market access than recent deals between the EU and Japan, and the EU and
Canada, while imposing much tougher obligations to ensure a “level playing
field”. The most generous description is that it is a “thin deal”.
Yet the
pro-Brexit British press is triumphant, hailing Johnson as some kind of hero.
There is no reflection of reality in much reporting: the stronger party has
secured most of its objectives, while the weaker party has accepted what it
must. Even serious analysts pull their punches by prefacing their analysis with
various formulations of “while it is better than no deal”. After a terrible
year, most of the public simply feel relieved.
The fact
that so many played along speaks volumes about our political class and media
elite. It reveals a lack of critical thinking and remoteness from the real
economy, from manufacturers to farmers to financiers. It also shows a
predilection for political drama and titillation at wanton destruction rather
than for sober and serious analysis. And with the official opposition not
offering any opposition whatsoever, it has exempted the government from any
serious scrutiny.
Misguided
politicians think that voting through the deal will bring closure. But it
simply reveals how disconnected Westminster is from reality. The deal will be
costly for business and inconvenient and undignified for Britons travelling to
the continent. It will create new tensions with Northern Ireland. And, with a
“review” set for 1 January 2025, it will feature in the next general election,
because Johnson wants it to. You may think Britain is done with Brexit. But
Brexit isn’t done with Britain.
Tom Kibasi
is a writer and researcher on politics and economics
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