Opinion polls project Marine Le Pen winning the 2027 French presidential election despite her recent conviction for embezzling EU funds.

 

Opinion polls see France's Le Pen winning 2027 election despite guilty verdict

Opinion polls project Marine Le Pen winning the 2027 French presidential election despite her recent conviction for embezzling EU funds. Surveys conducted immediately following the court ruling indicate that her support has actually increased, cementing her frontrunner status for the upcoming national vote.

 

Current Polling Numbers

Data from major tracking firms like Ifop (for LCI and Le Figaro) and Toluna Harris Interactive (for M6 and RTL) outline her electoral strength across both voting rounds:

• First Round Dominance: Le Pen captures 36% of voting intentions, rising from her previous range of 32–34%.
• Fragmented Opposition: No rival candidate scores higher than 19% in first-round projections.
• Run-off Victories: Pollsters project Le Pen winning the decisive second-round matchups against all primary opponents.

Projected Head-to-Head Matchups

If the election goes to a second-round run-off, Le Pen is favored to win against mainstream left, center, and right candidates:

• vs. Édouard Philippe (Centre-Right): Le Pen is projected to win with 51% to 49%. This remains her narrowest margin and sits within the poll's margin of error.
• vs. Gabriel Attal (Centrist/Macronist): Le Pen is projected to win with 55% to 45%.
• vs. Jean-Luc Mélenchon (Hard-Left): Le Pen secures a comfortable, blowout victory, with Mélenchon capturing only about one-third of the vote.

Legal Context and Campaign Status

• The Verdict: A Paris appeals court upheld Le Pen's conviction for misusing EU funds to pay National Rally party staff.
• The Electoral Ban: The court reduced her initial public office ban to 45 months (with 30 months suspended). Because she appealed the decision to France's highest court, the Cour de Cassation, her sentence and eligibility ban are legally suspended. [1]
• Timeline: The high court aims to issue its final, non-appealable verdict before the first round of voting begins on April 18, 2027.
• Public Mixed Reactions: A separate Elabe poll for BFM TV shows that 70% of French voters do not believe her claims of innocence. However, her core base remains deeply loyal, with a vast majority supporting her decision to launch her campaign