Navalny and
Nord Stream 2
Germany Unable to Reach Agreement on Sanctions
against Russia
The German government wants to stand up to Moscow
following the attempted murder of opposition activist Alexei Navalny. But
suspending construction of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline is a step too far for
many. What will Berlin do?
By Maik
Baumgärtner, Frank Dohmen, Andreas Flammang, Florian Gathmann, Matthias
Gebauer, Valerie Höhne, Martin Knobbe, Timo Lehmann, Ann-Katrin Müller, Peter
Müller, Lydia Rosenfelder, Christoph Schult, Christian Teevs, Gerald Traufetter
und Sabrina Winter
15.09.2020,
11.20 Uhr
It's not
easy to agitate Germany's usually serene Foreign Minister Heiko Maas, but it
happened last Wednesday afternoon. The European Affairs Committee of the
Bundestag, Germany’s federal parliament, was meeting to discuss the crisis in
Belarus and what Germany's stance should be toward Russia, given his protection
of Belarusian strongman Alexander Lukashenko. Maas was fiercely attacked from
several sides.
Maas, a
member of the center-left Social Democrats (SPD), the junior coalition partner
to Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU), first had to listen to
a speech by far-left Left Party parliamentarian Diether Dehm, who defended
Russia across the board. Then, he was attacked by Green Party lawmaker Manuel
Sarrazin, for doing too little on the issue of Belarus. He accused Maas of "selling
Belarus out" and giving Russia free hand, according to participants.
Furious,
Maas blasted the Greens for their "smugness." But the foreign
minister nevertheless seemed uncertain, and crucial questions remain
unanswered: How does Germany intend to position itself on Belarus and Russia?
What might sanctions look like? And what is the future of the German-Russian
Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project?
The only
thing the government seems to agree on is that Germany needs to take a much
harder line with Moscow. Not just because of Belarus: There is growing evidence
that the Kremlin was involved in the poison attack on Russian opposition
politician Alexei Navalny.
Scientists
at the Institute of Pharmacology and Toxicology of the German Armed Forces have
analyzed various samples from Navalny. Using fine diagnostics, they searched
his blood and urine for any form of poison. Traces on a bottle that Navalny had
with him were also examined intensively.
The
institute claims that the substance administered is a further developed version
of previously known Novichok compounds. The new poison is even "more
severe" than previous forms, Bruno Kahl, the president of Germany’s
foreign intelligence service, the BND, said in a confidential meeting.
The
Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) is also involved in
the investigations, and a delegation of the OPCW reportedly visited Charité
University Hospital in Berlin, where Navalny is being treated, the weekend
before last.
The
composition of the poison is the most important indication for the German
government that Russian President Vladimir Putin could be involved. The more
complex, newer and uncommon the chemical composition of the poison, the more
likely it is that it can only be obtained with the help of the Russian state
apparatus.
As such,
the current assumption in Berlin is that Navalny must have been poisoned by a
Russian secret service - either on his way to the airport in Tomsk for his
flight to Moscow or once he arrived at the airport. Since it has been proven
that the opposition politician was closely monitored by the domestic secret
service, the FSB, there doesn’t appear to be any other possibility.
German
security authorities suspect that the perpetrators planned for Navalny to die
on board the plane. The pilot's rapid emergency landing in Omsk along with the
antidote administered in the hospital saved his life. The Kremlin has
vehemently denied multiple times having had anything to do with the attempted
murder. Last Wednesday, the German Ambassador to Moscow, Géza Andreas von Geyr,
was summoned by the Russian government for a "discussion.”
A New Tone
In recent
days, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has ratcheted up her tone against Moscow.
"We expect the Russian government to explain what happened in this case,”
Merkel said. It was essentially her way of putting the ball back in Moscow's
court and buying time. But what happens if Moscow doesn’t provide a
satisfactory explanation? Would Berlin have to terminate the billion-euro Nord
Stream 2 project shortly before its completion? In recent days, neither the
foreign minister nor the chancellor has been willing to rule out that
possibility. But they have very little support within their parties for taking
such a step.
Even before
the heated debate in the European Affairs Committee, Maas found himself faced
with significant pushback for his unwillingness to rule out a suspension of the
pipeline. And the criticism came from his own party group in parliament.
Florian
Post, an SPD parliamentarian from Munich, spoke out against possible sanctions.
He lamented a lack of proof that Russian authorities had ordered the poisoning
of Navalny with Putin’s knowledge. "We would be shooting ourselves in the
foot,” Post said. "Suspending Nord Stream 2 is not an option."
Although he
is not opposed to sanctions as such, SPD party co-leader Norbert Walter-Borjans
said he, too, is opposed to suspending construction on the pipeline. "We
cannot simply stand by and watch this blatant violation of human rights. We
need to show a strong European response," the SPD leader told DER SPIEGEL,
and sanctions could be part of that response. "But Nord Stream 2 is
something else. It's like a bridge with only the final stone missing. You don't
leave it in ruins just because you have problems with each other now."
Carsten
Schneider, a senior member of the parliamentary group, also called Nord Stream
2 the "wrong item.” Germany, he said, obtains its energy almost
exclusively from "countries that are not entirely kosher.”
Within
Chancellor Merkel’s center-right Christian Democrats (CDU), foreign policy
pointman and candidate for party chair Norbert Röttgen has publicly called for
the end of Nord Stream 2. But when the CDU parliamentary group met last week in
a meeting also attended by the Christian Social Union (CSU), it’s Bavarian
sister party, no one voiced support for his position.
On the
contrary: Michael Kretschmer, the CDU governor of Saxony, had previously warned
against focusing on the pipeline project, and he was supported by members of
the CSU. CDU party leader Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer merely said that the
pipeline was "not a project of the heart."
Either way,
it would be difficult to implement a government-ordered halt to the project.
Some 94 percent of the approximately 2,460-kilometer (1,529 mile) pipeline has
already been completed and permits have been issued by all the countries whose
waters it travels through. Experts believe it would be necessary to create a
special law banning the completion of construction that would have to be passed
by German parliament.
"We
would be shooting ourselves in the foot. Stopping Nord Stream 2 is not an
option."
Florian
Post of the SPD
At best,
the Federal Network Agency could delay the start of operations. The agency has
to grant a permit to the company that is to take over operation of the pipeline
in German and European Union territory. The agency could postpone permit
issuance, but the authority is formally independent of the government.
Potential
Damage Claims
Should
construction be stopped, the German government could face potentially expensive
lawsuits. So far, the Russians and the Europeans have been sharing the total
costs of almost 10 billion euros. Russian gas giant Gazprom is covering one
half of the construction costs, while five European companies - Wintershall,
Uniper, OMV, Royal Dutch Shell and Engie - are footing the other half of the
bill. Sources with links to Nord Stream 2 say that those companies are now
looking into the possibility of compensation if the government moves to halt
construction.
The demands
could go even beyond that, however. Additional pipelines and compressor
stations have already been built in Europe in anticipation of the new gas
supplies. The gas arriving at the Baltic Sea coast is to be transported to
Eastern and Southern Europe through these installations - and their operators
could also make claims.
Against
that backdrop, other sanctions – against individuals, institutions or certain
sectors of the economy - seem more likely. Merkel is pushing for the sanctions
to come from the EU level, with the bloc having plenty of experience with the
tool.
EU
sanctions programs are currently in place against 30 countries or against
individuals from those countries. Between 1980 and 2014, 36 percent of all
sanctions worldwide were imposed by the Europeans. With the exception of the
United States, nobody has used sanctions as frequently as the EU.
After the
occupation of Crimea in violation of international law, the EU moved to impose
sanctions on Russia, imposing travel bans on 175 people and 44 institutions.
The EU also froze assets. Furthermore, trade with Russia was restricted in
several sectors of the economy and access to EU capital markets was closed off
for certain Russian banks and companies. Brussels imposed bans on arms exports
and imports and excluded Russia from sensitive technologies.
So far,
though, there has been no ban on imports of Russian gas or oil. Given that this
would increase prices for EU consumers, there would be little support for such
measures within the EU. "An import stop for Russian gas would also hit
Ukraine financially hard as a transit country,” Germany’s Economics Ministry
has warned.
Most EU
countries have agreed to impose travel bans and account bans soon for around 40
members of the regime in Belarus, including the country’s interior minister.
Diplomats in Brussels fear that even more far-reaching measures, such as
sanctions against Lukashenko himself, would only ensure that the ranks of those
loyal to the dictator would close even tighter.
However,
neither officials in Berlin nor in Brussels are in agreement on how effective
sanctions can be. Speaking on a popular political talk show, German Economics
Minister Peter Altmaier of the CDU said he knows of no case where sanctions
"against states like Russia” have made a difference.
Demonstration
of Unity
"Sanctions
are a necessary part of the international policy toolbox for countries that
seriously violate basic rules," says Johann Wadephul, deputy head of the
CDU parliamentary group. He says Germany and the EU use them "as a clear
sign of extreme political opposition.”
Officials
within Germany’s Foreign Ministry,, though, are skeptical of punitive measures.
Sanctions should not become standard nor should their use be increased, says a
top German diplomat. The danger, he says, is that countries thus penalized
could develop "resistance,” as to an antibiotic. Russia, for example, is
trying to divert its trade flows and get high-tech goods from China that it is
no longer able to obtain from the U.S. or Europe.
"With
joint sanctions against Russia, the EU at least demonstrates unity,” says
Sascha Lohmann, a political scientist at the German Institute for International
and Security Affairs (SWP) in Berlin. When governments impose sanctions, they
also protect themselves from complicity. "The European Union can’t simply
stand by and watch events unfold in Belarus,” Lohmann says.
Julia
Grauvogel, of the German Institute for Global and Area Studies, considers
punitive measures against autocracies to be less effective than they can be
against democracies. In the worst-case scenario, they can even stabilize the
regime. "The sanctions reinforce the national sentiment of the population,
and the population shows solidarity with the ruling classes,” the researcher
says. She also see this danger in introducing further sanctions against Russia.
A 2018
study conducted for the European Parliament’s Subcommittee on Human Rights
seems to support such skepticism. It found that individualized sanctions led
"only in a few cases” to the desired result - i.e. a change in behavior.
Even as politicians
in Brussels and Berlin seek the appropriate response to Russia’s actions, daily
business is still continuing at the diplomatic level. On Friday, the
Chancellery in Berlin invited representatives of Russia and Ukraine to a
meeting of the "Normandy Format,” where the negotiations over the Minsk
peace treaty for the Donbass region of Ukraine are ongoing. The meeting began
at 1 p.m., with an evening snack at 9:30 p.m. Diplomatic sources said the
Navalny case cannot be allowed to derail the possible ceasefire.
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