Boris Johnson angers everyone but Brexit talks
limp on
The EU presents the UK government with an ultimatum
but doesn’t torpedo trade talks.
By CHARLIE
COOPER 9/10/20, 10:37 PM CET Updated 9/10/20, 10:45 PM CET
https://www.politico.eu/article/boris-johnson-angers-everyone-but-brexit-talks-limp-on/
LONDON —
Boris Johnson's latest Brexit gambit has seriously upset a whole lot of people
— but not enough to blow up the trade talks (yet).
The EU on
Thursday issued a furious and firm condemnation of the U.K.'s decision to give
itself powers — via domestic legislation — to unpick key elements of the Brexit
deal struck between London and Brussels less than a year ago.
After
meeting Johnson's Cabinet Office Minister Michael Gove to express the EU's
"serious concerns" about the plan — which would see the U.K. override
sensitive parts of the agreement governing trade between Northern Ireland and
the rest of the U.K. — European Commission Vice President Maroš Šefčovič said
if the U.K. followed through it would amount to an "extremely serious
violation of the Withdrawal Agreement and of international law."
He gave
London an end-of-September deadline to change course or else risk legal action,
but Gove insisted the U.K. would be doing no such thing. “I made it perfectly
clear to Vice President Šefčovič that we would not be withdrawing this
legislation. He understood that," Gove said.
"Of
course, he regretted it," he added.
Divisions
exist in more areas than is often acknowledged on the U.K. side, according to
Barnier's account.
Johnson
also faced a backlash at home, where several Conservative grandees (including
one Brexiteer former leader) voiced their dismay at the government's willful
and unabashed willingness to breach an international treaty. In the U.S.,
meanwhile, Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi — the country’s
top Democratic elected official — rammed home her warning to the U.K. that
doing anything to undermine the Good Friday Agreement (as the EU says the
British plan would) would mean "they should not even think about"
winning a U.S. trade deal. "What were they thinking?" she said.
"In
more than 30 years as a diplomat I have not experienced such a fast,
intentional and profound deterioration of a negotiation," said Germany's
ambassador to the U.K., capturing the general mood.
And yet,
despite the dramatic diplomatic blow-up, trade talks between teams led by
Michel Barnier and David Frost go on. Theories abound as to why Johnson has
picked this moment to make such a bold move — one that appears to repudiate a
deal he himself agreed. Some in the EU think it may be a negotiating ploy to
force concessions from Brussels. If that is the case, the EU is determined not
to take the bait.
"The
U.K. would have probably preferred if we walked out of the negotiations until
the bill is adjusted so that they could blame us for a no deal. But we’re not
playing along with the blame game," said one EU official.
“By setting
a deadline and publishing such a clear statement we have made very clear that
this crosses a line. If they don’t respect that deadline, the EU can escalate
via a wide range of legal measures, such as an infringement procedure. We won’t
link it with the negotiations on the future relationship, because that’s
exactly what they want.”
So it was
that Barnier emerged from the eighth formal round of future relationship
negotiations — the final day of which coincided with Gove and Šefčovič's meeting
— with a pledge to carry on talking, and a pointed reminder that "mutual
trust" was a necessary foundation for future ties.
Frost was
if anything more upbeat, calling this week's round of talks "useful"
and not even mentioning the elephant in the room. “We remain committed to
working hard to reach agreement by the middle of October, as the prime minister
set out earlier this week," he said.
Pushback on
all sides
Divisions
exist in more areas than is often acknowledged on the U.K. side, according to
Barnier's account. Not just the question of the U.K.'s state aid regime, but a
range of concerns remain; particularly that the British might — if granted
access to the EU's market on the terms they want — undercut EU environmental
and labor standards. The battles over fisheries access and the dispute
mechanisms that would govern a trade agreement also continue.
Nonetheless,
Barnier said, the two teams would remain in touch.
For the EU,
the mood was more of exasperation than despair. Whatever the ultimate goal or
goals of Johnson’s government, EU officials said the threat of breaching the
Withdrawal Agreement was only poisoning the process.
“Simply, we
will not be put under pressure,” a senior EU official said. “This bill might
well be part of tactical moves to review Barnier’s mandate, which no member
state wants to do, or put even more pressure on the ongoing negotiations where
the U.K. is not ready to give in on level playing field [issues]. Our
assessment is clear. We will not be put under pressure and [will] stay cool.”
The
official said there was also no inclination for EU27 heads of state and
government to spend any significant amount of time on Brexit at their European
Council summit later this month, where the main discussion will focus on Turkey
and the Mediterranean.
The
reaction in the U.S. has reinforced a perception that the U.K. is risking not
just the economic damage of a no-trade deal Brexit by taking the stance it has,
but also reputational damage, said another EU official. But there's a downside
for the EU as well, they added, with the bloc now at loggerheads with all its
major neighbors: Turkey, Russia — and the U.K.
On the home
front, the government's action has prompted growing disquiet within the
Conservative Party itself, with former leader (and Brexiteer) Michael Howard
saying he "never thought" he would hear a British minister admit — as
Northern Ireland Secretary Brandon Lewis did this week — that the U.K.'s plan
to breaks international law (in a "specific and limited way").
Further
measures that the EU fear could undermine the Withdrawal Agreement are expected
in the forthcoming Finance Bill.
A rebellion
is forming against the legislation in question, the Internal Market Bill, which
will be fast-tracked through parliament over the next two weeks, with veteran
Tory MP (and lawyer) Bob Neil putting forward an amendment that would put a
parliamentary block on the plans. "I hope it's at least an indication as a
government that really, you need to think very hard and carefully about going
down this route," he told Times Radio. "For heaven's sake, try and
find some other way."
The House
of Lords is also likely to resist the bill and even if it does pass into law,
it will not be the end of the matter, as amending legislation could be
introduced later should the U.K. decide to change tack. Further measures that
the EU fear could undermine the Withdrawal Agreement are expected in the
forthcoming Finance Bill.
But the EU
is trying to keep calm and carry on. "There is still time, not all hope is
lost and everyone needs to be calm and measured," said one EU diplomat.
"But the U.K. needs to change course."
David
Herszehhorn, Barbara Moens, Cristina Gallardo and Jacopo Barigazzi contributed
reporting.
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