Brexit’s game of chicken increases chances of no
deal
Third round of talks about the UK’s future
relationship with the EU ends with hostile words and no progress.
By BARBARA
MOENS AND CRISTINA GALLARDO 5/15/20, 6:38 PM CET Updated 5/16/20, 11:46 AM CET
Post-Brexit
talks (once again) are a game of chicken — and no one wants to blink.
On Friday,
the third round of talks between the EU and the U.K. on their future
relationship ended again with “very little progress made,” according to both
sides, and plenty of hostile rhetorical flourishes.
But unlike
at many crunch points since the 2016 referendum, everybody has bigger problems
as they respond to a global pandemic, leaving drastically less political focus
to force through a compromise and avoid a crash.
Having
agreed a divorce package last year that allowed the U.K. to continue to trade
with the EU, the two sides remain at an impasse on various issues, the
thorniest being so-called level playing field rules, designed to prevent the
U.K. undercutting the EU in future.
Britain’s
chief negotiator David Frost said the “major obstacle” remains the bloc’s
“insistence” on the U.K. abiding by EU laws and standards in exchange for
access to its single market. The U.K. continues to oppose this demand, arguing
Brussels does not require this of other countries it has signed free-trade
deals with, such as Canada.
With the
coronavirus crisis consuming so much political energy, Brexit negotiators are
once again speeding toward a cliff edge while many key political figures aren't
looking.
Brussels is
not budging, and sees this as key to avoiding a race-to-the bottom competitor
on the EU's doorstep. “We are not going to bargain away our European values to
the benefit of the British economy,” the EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier
said. “Economic and trade fair play is not for sale. It is not a ‘nice to
have,’ it is a ‘must have.’"
The EU27
also underlined its intention to follow what Brussels sees as the letter of the
law by on Thursday launching disciplinary proceedings against the U.K. for
violating the EU’s freedom of movement requirements.
The Brexit
timetable now looks more difficult than ever.
The EU
seems to have accepted that the U.K. won't seek an extension of the transition
period, which ends December 31. That means June — the original deadline for an
extension request — is no longer an important cut-off date, and leaves just a
couple of months to negotiate a deal which has to be ready by October in order
for both sides to ratify it in time.
With the coronavirus crisis consuming so much
political energy, Brexit negotiators are once again speeding toward a cliff
edge while many key political figures aren't looking.
You blink
first
Both sides
insist progress can only be made if the other side gives up its core demands.
While Barnier urged the U.K. “to change its strategy,” Frost said: “We very
much need a change in EU approach.”
At the same
time, both sides spin that the other is slowly giving in. Barnier mentioned the
U.K. is moving away from its “maximalist position” on fisheries in other to
work on all sort of provisions. “That same spirit might be extended to level
playing field provisions and governance.”
A senior
U.K. official close to the negotiations dismissed that suggestion, saying “I’d
hesitate to call it progress to be honest.”
The same
U.K. official acknowledged “this round was a little tetchier” in some areas,
but said there was some sign of “the beginning of a process where they’re
beginning to accept [that the U.K. won’t shift].”
Those small
signs of compromise might provide a light at the end of the Brexit tunnel. The
U.K. also said it intends to publish all of its draft legal texts next week.
The talks can still go both ways, Barnier said. “The two rounds ahead of us will
lead the direction of travel.”
But if
neither side is willing to move, the chicken game risks leading to a car crash
— a no-deal exit from the Brexit transition period.
London has
always stressed it's willing to take that risk. The U.K. still exhibits certain
coolness about the possibility of a no-deal crash or — in the words of the U.K.
senior negotiating official — “Australia terms.”
“We’ve
always made clear that if an agreement can’t be reached then trading on what we
call Australia terms is perfectly doable and satisfactory. We’ve always made
clear that we want to try and get to a deal and that’s what we’re working hard
to do.”
More and
more this looks like a risk the EU is also more willing to take than to give in
on its core issues. “The single market is our biggest plus point and won't
sacrifice it for the sake of these negotiations," Barnier said. “The U.K.
cannot pick and choose the most attractive elements of the single market
without meeting obligations even EU members must meet.”
“The probability of a no-deal Brexit is
increasing." — EU diplomat
The bloc
even seems ready to move to the side of the road and watch the U.K. drive
itself off the cliff.
The EU has
repeatedly stressed that the U.K. has much more to lose in a no-deal scenario
then the EU, even though a disorderly Brexit at the end of the year would be a
major blow for the EU economy as well, especially when it coincides with the
recovery from the corona crisis. The EU, too, would then be unable to do
anything to tame the competitor on its doorstep, should the U.K. wish to
undercut the bloc.
But at his
press conference, Barnier said the EU is ready for a no deal and will step up
preparations. According to one EU diplomat, that’s not just bluff. “The
probability of a no-deal Brexit is increasing. That once seemed like our worst
nightmare. But with this corona crisis, it’s just not on top of the political
agenda anymore.”
Charlie Cooper contributed reporting.
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