Q: What
explains some pro-Russian sentiment in Germany?
Deborah
Cole
And,
finally, mikeatsmileend asks:
“Why
is it that the most pro Russian sentiment in Germany is found in the former DDR
which was oppressed by a Russian backed state for so long? One from which in
1989 people were desperate to escape from. Why such short memories?”
German
chancellor Angela Merkel and Russian president Vladimir Putin chat as they pose
for the media at Schloss Meseberg castle in Meseberg, northeastern Germany in
2018. Photograph: Tobias Schwarz/AFP/Getty Images
Deborah says:
“This
is such a great question (they all have been!) and the reasons are complex.
Sure,
in some quarters it’s solid pro-Russian sentiment derived from a sense that
Moscow has been an important and effective counterbalance to US power since the
second world war.
Many
who grew up in East Germany are fluent in Russian and spent time in the former
Soviet Union as teens or young adults so there can be a cultural affinity.
You
also have a deep sense among many in eastern Germany that Russia is a
geopolitical fact of life that’s not going anywhere so better to not poke the
bear.
When
it comes to Ukraine, many buy into Moscow’s narrative that it has a rightful
historical claim to determine its future, or accept its line that Nato and the
EU backed Russia into a corner after the cold war and shouldn’t be surprised it
lashed out.
The
AfD and the much smaller BSW parties very much play to this thinking.”
Share
Q: What
are we expecting from progressive parties in this weekend's state elections?
Deborah
Cole
JamesRyan
asks:
“There
is much discussion about Merz and the CDU, which is understandable given the
current political situation, however what are the potential consequences for
progressive parties arising from these elections?
If The
left prevail in Berlin and the Social Democrats win in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern
are there any lessons these parties could extrapolate to achieve success on a
federal level?
Conversely,
if they do not, particularly for the SPD, what does it reflect about its
position in contemporary German politics?”
Social
Democratic Party prime minister of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and the
party's top candidate for the upcoming state election Manuela Schwesig poses in
front of an election campaign poster reading "The Woman Against
Blue". Photograph: Jens Büttner/DPA/AP
Deborah answers:
“You’re
absolutely right that the left-leaning parties are likely to have a good night
on Sunday, relatively speaking.
But
their expected strong showings won’t really indicate momentum on the national
level.
Take Manuela
Schwesig, the Social Democratic premier of Meck-Pomm. She mounted a remarkable
comeback over the summer, in part based on her popularity in the region and in
part by demanding the national coalition, of which her SPD is a part, water
down key reforms to the pension system. It is also worth noting that her surge
from behind in the polls came entirely at the expense of the mainstream
parties; the AfD has hardly budged from first place with about 37%.
Nevertheless
Schwesig may well win re-election and then mount a leadership challenge at the
national level of the party, potentially putting her in pole position to be the
SPD’s chancellor candidate at the next general election.
But
the SPD remains at a dismal 12-13% in national polls, and left-wing Die Linke
not far behind, effectively splitting that part of the progressive vote.”
Share
Q: What
is the German media landscape and how is AfD treated?
Deborah
Cole
Wd_reader
asks:
“In
terms of election coverage, indeed political coverage in general, does the
German media have a similar landscape to the UK? For example, a UK equivalent
of the left wing Die Linke party would be vilified by most media (TV, print and
online) and an equivalent of the AfD would likely enjoy favourable coverage.”
German
Chancellor of the Social Democratic party (SPD) Olaf Scholz and his
conservative rival of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) Friedrich Merz are
seen on a monitor during their debate on Welt TV, in Berlin, Germany just
before the last parliamentary election. Photograph: Fabrizio Bensch/Reuters
Deborah says:
“The
mainstream media landscape in Germany is fairly solidly anti-AfD, albeit to
varying degrees.
This
creates obvious tensions, also because public broadcasters are required to give
it something like equal time given it holds nearly 100 seats in the Bundestag.
The
interviews of its leaders and candidates are usually sparring matches and the
best ones manage to fact-check in real time (Hut ab – respect – to those who
manage).
The
far-left Die Linke is generally treated as fringe but not a pariah like the
AfD, which not incidentally from its earliest days has sought to slash funding
for the public broadcasters.”
Share
Q: Why is
Merz seen as a very reluctant critic of the US?
Deborah
Cole
Chymist
asks:
“There
is a lot of publicity being given to Macron and his non-compliance with the
Trump world view. Why is Merz seen as a very reluctant critic of the US?”
US
president Donald Trump holds up a jersey with the number 47 on it as German
chancellor Friedrich Merz look on during a working session at the G7 summit in
Evian-les-Bains, France in June. Photograph: Thibault Camus/Reuters
Deborah
replies:
“Transatlanticism
has historically run much deeper in Germany than in France, and Merz’s CDU is
its traditional champion.
The
West German CDU paid a decades-long debt of gratitude to America for the
country’s economic and moral reconstruction after the second world war while
Christian Democrats raised in East Germany (such as a certain Angela Merkel)
credited Washington with marshalling support for German national reunification
after the fall of the Berlin Wall.
Trump
of course has upset the apple cart in countless ways and made a mockery of
attempts to contain him with charm offensives – dinner atop the Eiffel Tower
and a military parade on the Champs-Élysées, anyone?
Merz
at first tried as well to find a kind of businessman-to-businessman rapport
with Trump and “strike a deal” on trade and Ukraine support. But the scales
seem to have fallen from his eyes too.”
Share
Q: Is AfD
going to get electoral success again in near future and what options Merz has
to resist?
Deborah
Cole
GrumpyOldFool
(what a nickname, by the way) is asking:
“Is
the electoral success of the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt likely to be repeated
elsewhere in the near future, and if so, what options does Chancellor Merz have
to resist? Is he being blamed for AfD’s success by his partner parties, and is
his Chancellorship in doubt as a result?”
Several
thousand people gather at the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin a day after the state
elections in Saxony-Anhalt to protest against the right-wing extremist party
Alternative for Germany (AfD). Photograph: snapshot-photography/T
Seeliger/Shutterstock
Deborah says:
“There
is a general sense of helplessness in the German political establishment about
the seemingly inexorable rise of the AfD, which has been rocked by scandals,
infighting and serious doubts about the legal and fiscal viability of most of
its programme.
In the
two state elections being held on Sunday, the AfD is expected to make gains
again. But it is worth mentioning that if the polls are correct it stands no
chance of gaining an absolute majority in either region (it came VERY close in
Saxony-Anhalt two weeks ago).
The
much-mentioned Brandmauer (firewall) will hold in both states, keeping the far
right out of power.
But as
we see in election after election, the bigger the portion of seats for the AfD,
the harder it is to form a coherent coalition among the remaining parties.
Merz
has certainly borne a big part of the blame among Germans for the AfD’s
continued success, largely because he for years said that he alone could stop
it by a) using constitutional means to curb irregular immigration and b)
getting the economy moving again. He’s had more success on the former than the
latter so far, suggesting the reasons for AfD support go deeper.”
Top
candidate Ulrich Siegmund speaks at an election party of the “Alternative for
Germany” (AfD) after winning the Saxony-Anhalt state elections in Magdeburg,
eastern Germany. Photograph: Matthias Schräder/APShare
Q: Is
there anything that could stop AfD winning power in 2029?
Deborah
Cole
And with
AfD now polling nationally at around 30% for the first time, is there anything
you can think of that could stop them winning in 2029? Are the various
de-legalisation processes still ongoing?
A
demonstrator carries items signalling opposition to the far-right Alternative
for Germany (AfD) party, during a protest the day after the party’s victory in
state elections in Saxony-Anhalt at the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin, Germany.
Photograph: Maryam Majd/Reuters
Deborah says:
“Three
years is such a long time in (German) politics!
But
the direction of travel is worrying, particularly as the mainstream parties
look incapable of delivering the dramatic change that large parts of the
electorate appear to be craving.
This
is especially true with the kind of loveless coalitions that can be formed
after the AfD takes a big share of the pie. Something that’s striking – and
concerning – is how Teflon-proofed the AfD seems to be when it comes to
scandal: corruption allegations and dubious ties with Russia and China don’t
leave a mark.
This
is in a country where plagiarism in a decades-old university thesis or misuse
of air miles were once enough to end a political career.
What
seems clear is that simply labelling the AfD and its voters deplorable and
extremist isn’t an answer.
Which
brings me to a quick word on the calls to ban the party: the temptation is
strong to try to remove the far-right threat with the stroke of a pen. But its
supporters are clearly not going anywhere and the constitutional bar is
incredibly, probably prohibitively, high.”
Share
Q: Will
Merz deliver on reforms he promised before 2025 election?
Deborah
Cole
ColinDerek
asks:
“Germany’s
embattled chancellor Friedrich Merz was elected in 2025 despite having no prior
leadership experience.
He
made many promises: to revive the stagnant economy, cut red tape, lower energy
costs for homeowners, and return to nuclear energy. He also pledged “zero
tolerance” on irregular migration, to reform or replace Bürgergeld, overhaul
pensions and healthcare, and provide more assertive leadership within the EU.
Merz declared that “Germany can be relied on again” and proposed establishing a
national security council.
The
reality today looks very different. The economy remains stagnant, and massive
energy costs have forced the government to introduce new taxes, including CO₂
surcharges on fuel and heating. The social system appears out of control, and
the government seems to lack the skill and capacity for broader reforms.
Germany faces a worsening housing crisis, with high rents and too little new
construction.
Herr
Merz’s political style is often described as abrasive and lacking empathy. He
frequently fails to read the German public mood or understand the economic
pressures facing ordinary citizens.
My
question is: with the upcoming elections, do you think Herr Merz will change
direction, put Germany first, and stay true to the original reform promises he
made in 2025?”
Things
looked very different for Friedrich Merz when he won last year’s parliamentary
election… Photograph: Volker Hartmann/AFP/Getty Images
Deborah
responds:
“There
are strong doubts as to whether the 70-year-old Merz can fundamentally change
his spots at this point.
The
rank-and-file of the party picked him for his swagger and for his promises of
“durchregieren,” meaning a CEO-style of governance with clear decisions and
follow-through.
His
lack of experience in political office has been evident, particularly at the
top of a coalition that requires finesse, diplomacy and a deep understanding of
the complex levers of power in Germany.
That
said, the in-tray you cite would be daunting for even the most skilled, popular
and experienced leader.
If I
had to wager, I’d say the coalition government with the Social Democrats will
continue to make incremental progress on most of the fronts you mention. But a
sense of real renewal and optimism will be very hard to come by, compounding
the frustrations of voters who thought they had cast a ballot for change.”
German
chancellor Friedrich Merz and his coalition co-leader, SPD party leader and
finance minister, Lars Klingbeil attend a cabinet meeting at the chancellery in
Berlin, Germany. Photograph: Liesa Johannssen/ReutersShare
Q: Who
could replace Friedrich Merz and what would it mean for Germany's international
commitments?
Deborah
Cole
And if
Merz was ousted, who could replace him as the chancellor and what would it mean
for Germany’s international commitments, particularly on Ukraine and Nato?
Deborah says:
“If
Merz is replaced against his will, something that is relatively complex under
Germany’s Basic Law, or if he steps aside of his own accord under the pressure,
the name that keeps coming up is Hendrik Wüst, the premier of the most populous
state, North Rhine-Westphalia.
Hendrik
Wüst, Minister President of North Rhine-Westphalia, speaks onstage an event
earlier this month. Photograph: Thomas Lohnes/Getty Images
He’s a
relative moderate, governs in a coalition with the ecologist Greens, at 51 is a
generation younger than Merz and has a sunnier disposition. He seems quite
happy however to bide his time, at least until after he, as is expected, wins
re-election as state premier next April, which would strengthen his hand.
He
could also wait until the next scheduled general election in 2029, in which
hardly a soul at this point expects Merz to run again.
The
CDU is solidly pro-Ukrainian and despite all his bad press, Merz generally gets
high marks for remaining resolute on arms supplies to Kyiv. There is no reason
to doubt at this point that any CDU successor would waver.”
German
chancellor Friedrich Merz welcomes Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at
the Chancellery in Berlin in April. Photograph: Odd Andersen/AFP/Getty
ImagesShare
Q: Could
Friedrich Merz be out of job after this weekend?
Using my
position as the host of this live blog, let me kick us off with one of my own
questions to Deborah:
How
possible do you think is that Merz could be out of his job after this weekend?
What are the expectations and the worst case scenario for him for the two
upcoming state elections?
Berlin
correspondent Deborah Cole says:
I
think the odds are that Merz will still be in his job for some time to come but
the fact we’re even discussing the possibility underscores the stakes of the
two regional elections on Sunday and the general state of German politics.
Merz’s
incumbent CDU risks coming in second place behind the far-left Linke in Berlin
but it’s unlikely to be a humiliating rout.
In
Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (from here on Meck-Pomm to save everyone’s eyes
and my fingers) the situation looks much dicier for the conservatives.
If
polls are correct they could get their first single-digit result in a state
election in 75 years and even risk falling below the 5-% threshold to
representation.
That
would massively increase the pressure on Merz.
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