Friedrich
Merz’s endgame: All the scenarios, rated
Germany’s
chancellor is on the brink. We map out what happens next.
Friedrich
Merz participates in a press statement in Berlin on July 29, 2026. | Ralf
Hirschberger/AFP via Getty Images
September
17, 2026 4:00 am CET
https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-friedrich-merz-scenarios-elections-cdu/
BERLIN —
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz faces the threat of being ousted as soon as
this weekend, just 16 months after entering office promising an ambitious
reform agenda and vowing to bring back German leadership in Europe.
Ahead of
two key state elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin this
Sunday, where Merz’s center-right Christian Democratic Union risks painful
defeats, senior party members are privately discussing whether Germany needs a
so-called Kanzlertausch — a change of chancellor — to arrest a rapidly
accelerating decline in support for the government.
Merz’s
national popularity plummeted to just 14% this week, while a new poll shows his CDU/CSU
conservative party alliance falling to an unprecedented low of just 18%.
That same
poll shows the far-right Alternative for Germany leading with 29%. The AfD also
finished first in a recent state election in Saxony-Anhalt, coming close to
winning an absolute majority, while Merz’s CDU lost more than half of its voter
support.
European
and international allies are watching with bewilderment as Germany — once a
bastion of stability during the 16 years of Angela Merkel’s leadership —
potentially faces its second quick-fire change of leadership (Merz’s
predecessor Olaf Scholz saw his ruling coalition collapse in November 2024).
Merz
canceling his trip to
the U.N. General Assembly next week threw the scale of his domestic crisis
into sharp focus. “His presence is required in Berlin,” said a senior German
official, as the chancellor fights for his political survival.
POLITICO
analyzed five scenarios for how the German leadership tumult could unfold — and
rated their likelihood.
1. Merz
resigns lacking party support
The
chancellor has convened a high-stakes meeting of his party’s leadership on
Sunday at 5 p.m., which will coincide with the state election exit polls at 6
p.m. At that meeting, Merz reportedly wants to ask his party allies whether they still
back him and his reform plans. If not, he wants to urge them to put forward the
name of a potential successor.
By
seeking the confrontation, Merz will try to exploit a weakness of his critics:
There is no clear consensus on who should take over.
North
Rhine-Westphalia’s Minister-President Hendrik Wüst (CDU) is frequently
mentioned, but he has elections in his populous home state coming up in April —
so the timing isn’t great for him. An alternative would be Markus Söder of the
Christian-Social Union, the CDU’s Bavarian sister party, but he isn’t short of
critics. Other, less probable potential candidates are Hesse’s Minister
President Boris Rhein (CDU) and Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt (CSU).
However,
should the elections Sunday be a total disaster for Merz’ conservatives — the
party could even miss the 5% hurdle to enter parliament in Mecklenburg-Western
Pomerania, for the first time in any state election — frustration within the
CDU/CSU could boil over and lead to broad calls for Merz to resign.
The
showdown does not necessarily have to happen Sunday but could follow within the
next days or weeks. Should Merz accept that fate, he could inform German
President Frank-Walter Steinmeier of his intention to step down. Steinmeier
would then most likely ask him to remain in office in a caretaker function
until a new chancellor is elected by parliament.
However,
this ain’t easy: Any successor for Merz would need the votes of the CDU/CSU’s
coalition partner, the Social Democrats, who would likely ask concessions in
return — triggering a time-consuming renegotiation of the coalition treaty. It
also means Merz could still remain in power for months and represent Germany on
the international stage, for example in EU budget talks.
Adding to
the complications, the coalition’s majority in the Bundestag is thin: There’s
always a risk of defectors during the secret ballot, as happened to Merz
himself during the first election round last year.
Likelihood:
2.
No-confidence vote forces Merz out
Pressure
from within the party cannot actually force Merz to resign. For historical
reasons, the German constitution provides elected chancellors with a very
stable position.
Given
that, the only possibility to forcibly oust him would be through a
no-confidence vote. However, the German constitution requires that such a vote
must be “constructive,” meaning an opposing candidate must at the same time
receive a majority to replace Merz.
This
makes such a scenario very unlikely. Apart from the negative public image that
the CDU/CSU would display by openly seeking to topple their chancellor in
parliament, it seems unlikely that any candidate could immediately get the
required votes amid the thin majority of the coalition and the negotiations
that would likely have to happen first with the SPD.
Likelihood:
3. Merz
seeks a confidence vote
Merz
could also call for a vote of confidence himself, seeking to show that he still
has sufficient support within the coalition — or otherwise open the door to
snap elections. It’s a scenario that has happened in the past, most recently
with Scholz in December 2024.
Should
Merz lose the vote, Steinmeier could decide to dissolve the Bundestag within 21
days — but only if Merz proposes it to him. However, given the strong position
of the AfD in current polls, neither the CDU nor SPD has an interest in new
elections at this stage.
It would
also be possible to elect a new chancellor within those 21 days, if there is a
quick majority for a successor.
All in
all, not too likely.
Likelihood:
4.
Far-right support against Merz
Theoretically,
it would be possible for a Merz successor to get the necessary majority in
parliament by receiving indirect backing from the AfD (minority government) or
even form a coalition with the far-right party.
CDU/CSU
and AfD would enjoy a comfortable majority in parliament, but it would mean
breaking with Germany’s anti-far-right “firewall.”
However,
it’s an idea that is unacceptable for many in the party leadership. Merz
himself has also ruled out staying in power with far-right support.
Advertisement
Advertisement
Likelihood
5. Merz
clings to power
Contrary
to the Saxony-Anhalt election aftermath, where the chancellor seemed
discouraged and delivered an unconvincing speech in the Bundestag, he now
appears to want to fight for his leadership.
Merz’s
position was bolstered by
a letter Wednesday from eight center-right state premiers — including Wüst
and Rhein, but not Söder — in which they wrote that “Germany needs reliability
and action” instead of “discussions about personnel.” The letter also refers to
elections in France, Italy, Poland, Spain and Greece next year, noting that “a
stable and strong Germany” is now needed in Europe.
The
letter is far from an unwavering support for Merz; in fact, it doesn’t even
mention his name and may also be an attempt to quell internal debates ahead of
the important elections on Sunday. However, it may also mean that there isn’t
sufficient appetite among senior party leaders to oust Merz at this point.
Instead, the party may seek to close ranks and regain popularity by urging the
SPD to pursue even more vigorous social reforms.
Likelihood:
.jpeg)
.jpeg)
Sem comentários:
Enviar um comentário