Sweden Election on Knife Edge as Migrant Vote Could Deliver Left Bloc Victory

 

Sweden’s parliamentary election remained too close to call late Sunday, with the two blocs effectively tied at around 49.2 per cent as counting moved deeper into the night. SVT projected a 175–174 left-wing opposition bloc majority against the Tidö-coalition, while its exit poll showed voters of non-European background leaning heavily left—an imbalance that could matter greatly in a race this close.

Joakim Scheffer

— 14.09.2026

https://www.hungarianconservative.com/articles/current/sweden-election-tido-left-bloc-immigration/

 

Sweden Election on Knife Edge as Migrant Vote Could Deliver Left Bloc Victory

 

Sweden’s parliamentary election remained too close to call late on Sunday, with the two blocs effectively tied as the count moved deeper into the night. With 5,340 of 6,626 districts reported and nearly 5.4 million votes counted, both the Social Democrat-led opposition and the Tidö parties stood at about 49.2 per cent on the rounded party totals. The latest preliminary seat projection still gave the opposition the narrowest possible 175–174 majority in the 349-seat Riksdag

What initially looked like a clear opposition victory according to SVT’s 8pm exit poll—with 183 projected seats for the left-wing bloc against 166 for Tidö—soon became a rare nail-biter as Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s right-wing coalition erased much of the difference as the count progressed.

The remaining geography, however, appears somewhat more favourable to the opposition, with votes still outstanding in northern Sweden and left-leaning urban areas, although Tidö-leaning parts of southern Sweden and the Stockholm suburbs provide a counterweight.

The internal balance on the right is equally striking. The Moderates were running at 19.9 per cent, up 0.7 points from 2022, while the Sweden Democrats stood at 17.7 per cent, down 2.8, reversing final polls that had generally put SD ahead. SVT said SD was losing ground in at least 250 municipalities where results had started arriving, including traditional strongholds in Skåne.

Party officials were treating the outcome cautiously. Moderate ministers Elisabeth Svantesson and Gunnar Strömmer described the race as ‘insanely exciting’, while SD’s Linus Bylund conceded the party’s disappointing exit-poll showing and warned that Sweden might have to wait several days for clarity. On the opposition side, the mood at the Social Democratic election-night gathering was described by SVT as subdued as its initially comfortable advantage disappeared.

SVT’s VALU exit poll also exposed just how heavily Sweden’s immigrant-origin electorate leans left. Among voters of non-European background, the Social Democrats took 38 per cent and the Left Party 21 per cent, vastly outperforming their national results, showing precisely why mass immigration can never be declared electorally neutral. Decades of high immigration have expanded a voter base that disproportionately supports the parties that defended the old migration model, which was revised precisely by the Tidö administration over the past four years.

That is also why a final right-wing victory is especially important. Kristersson has pledged to bring SD formally into government for the first time in history, allowing the right to continue and deepen Sweden’s hard-line migration reforms after four years in which asylum numbers were sharply reduced.

 

The final outcome could still hinge on late advance and overseas ballots, which are not fully counted until Wednesday or Thursday, while the definitive county-level count takes about a week.

Sweden’s parliamentary election remained too close to call late Sunday, with the two blocs effectively tied at around 49.2 per cent as counting moved deeper into the night. SVT projected a 175–174 left-wing opposition bloc majority against the Tidö-coalition, while its exit poll showed voters of non-European background leaning heavily left—an imbalance that could matter greatly in a race this close.

Joakim Scheffer graduated from the University of Szeged with a Master’s degree in International Relations. Before joining Hungarian Conservative, he worked as an editor at the foreign policy desk of Hungarian daily Magyar Nemzet. In addition to his role at Hungarian Conservative, he serves as the editor of Eurasia magazine.