Sweden election forecast says vote too close to call

 

Sweden election forecast says vote too close to call

A shock analysis contradicts exit polls and holds out hope to PM Ulf Kristersson that he could cling to power with help from the far right.

 

September 13, 2026 10:29 pm CET

By Tim Ross

https://www.politico.eu/article/sweden-election-too-close-to-call-ulf-kristersson-magdalena-andersson/

 

STOCKHOLM — Sweden’s high-stakes general election is too close to call, according to an analysis of early results that suggests a late surge in support for the right.

 

Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s right-wing alliance had been adrift in the polls for most of the past year, only narrowing the gap with the leftwing opposition in the final two weeks of a sometimes bitter and bad-tempered campaign.

 

If he manages to defy the polls and hold onto power, Kristersson has promised to give ministerial posts to politicians from the Sweden Democrats, a populist-nationalist anti-migrant party, in a first for a country that for decades shunned the far right.

 

Two exit polls published when voting ended at 8 p.m. local time on Sunday gave the leftwing bloc a clear lead, putting ex-PM Magdalena Andersson on track to return to office.

 

But public broadcaster SVT’s later analysis of results declared so far suggested the race was far closer, projecting that Kristersson’s right-wing alliance will win 174 seats in the 349-seat parliament, one fewer than the left bloc’s 175 seats.

 

Swedish broadcaster TV4 produced a separate forecast confirming that the results so far point to a nearly even split: 176 seats for Andersson’s left bloc and 173 for Kristersson’s alliance on the right.

 

For Andersson, such a close result would be a bitter disappointment. After being ejected from power four years ago, she had been seen as a virtual lock to regain office. But her side’s double-digit poll lead evaporated in the final days of the race.

 

“Swedish elections are always close,” Andersson told POLITICO earlier on Sunday as she toured the suburbs of Stockholm in her campaign bus. “When I’ve been around Sweden, a lot of people I’ve spoken to said they see things that the government has done that they like but there are also lots of things that they don’t like.”

 

With the fate of the far right in the balance, the vote is a watershed moment for Sweden and will be watched closely elsewhere in Europe, where other nationalist parties are gaining ground.

 

Even Andersson accepts that a victory for her leftwing bloc would not consign the Sweden Democrats to history, especially if the final result is a narrow one.

 

“The hate that they have spread through this election, and if they would become ministers and use their platforms as ministers to spread hate? Well, we’ll see if the Swedish people are very tempted on that,” she said.

 

For his part, conservative Moderate party leader Kristersson would almost certainly stay on and fight for his job as PM if the SVT forecast proves accurate.

 

Kristersson insists that the Sweden Democrats can be trusted, having propped up his coalition from the country’s parliament for the past four years, helping drive through hardline policies on immigration and violent crime.

 

He told POLITICO on Friday that potential ministers from the Sweden Democrats would have limited room to go rogue — because he would remain in charge.

 

“Since I will be the person that is forming that government, and the person that will appoint every one of them, I can guarantee you that it will only be very skilled and experienced and people with good judgment that would be part of my government,” he said.