Latest
poll shows 0.3-point gap between left and right blocs, with country’s
reputation as global champion of human rights said to be at stake
Miranda
Bryant Nordic correspondent
Sat 12
Sep 2026 06.00 BST
Sweden
goes to the polls on Sunday in an extremely close election that could see the
far right enter government for the first time if the country’s rightwing
parties can form a majority.
Opinion
polls show the centre-left opposition alliance ahead, with Magdalena Andersson of the Social Democrats the favourite to
become prime minister again after four years in opposition, but her bloc’s lead has narrowed considerably in
the final days of the campaign.
In 2022,
the current prime minister, Ulf Kristersson, the leader of the centre-right
Moderates, broke a longstanding taboo to make a deal with the far-right Sweden
Democrats (SD), so that his minority coalition could form a government.
That
agreement gave the SD outsized influence over government policy, especially on
crime and immigration, and Kristersson has now gone further, promising
ministerial posts for the SD if he is returned to power.
The
election comes days after Germany’s nativist Alternative für Deutschland (AfD)
seized first place in key state elections, and as Marine Le Pen leads the polls
for next year’s presidential vote in France.
Legal and
civil rights experts have warned that such a result could further undermine
Sweden’s long-held reputation as a global champion of human rights, which has
significantly deteriorated under the current government.
“What we
have seen in the past four years is huge changes when it comes to policies on
crime and immigration,” said John Stauffer, legal director at Civil Rights
Defenders.
“That is
also the concern moving forward into the next mandate period: that this
government will continue with a clear aim to further decrease the number of
people coming to Sweden, the number of people who can get protection, and also
that as many people as possible with migrant backgrounds leave Sweden – either
by force or voluntarily.”
SD’s
manifesto includes pledges to introduce “anti-Swedish sentiment in legislation
on incitement against ethnic groups”, revoke permanent resident permits and
further cut immigration.
One of
its slogans is a promise to “make Sweden Sweden again”.
Despite
recent changes – including the deportation of teenagers, lowering the age of
criminal responsibility and sending 14-year-olds to adult prisons – many voters
and politicians continued to see Sweden as a “champion of human rights and a
champion of the rules-based world order where human rights is an important
part”, Stauffer said.
“But it
is quite clear that the Sweden Democrats do not have that ambition. They don’t
see Sweden as an important player on these issues on human rights. So there
will be less focus on this and Sweden contributing to developing the judicial
framework around human rights.”
He added:
“It’s a fair guess that the negative trend will continue with SD in government,
the view from abroad of Sweden will continue to deteriorate, less and less will
be seen as a champion of human rights, but as any other country maybe. For some
time Sweden has been seen as the exception.”
In an
attempt to win back voters, Andersson’s Social Democrats have also moved to the
right on crime, immigration and integration, meaning that a win for the left
was unlikely to mean a reform of current hardline policies, said Stauffer.
“With a
Social Democrats-led government, many of the things we see as problematic are
not going to be rolled back. But maybe negative development will not continue
in the same way,” he said.
With
polls so tight and record early voting expected, the performance of smaller
parties could prove critical.
The
Liberals, who are tiny but part of the governing coalition and whose leader,
Simona Mohamsson, has controversially cosied up to the SD’s leader, Jimmie
Åkesson, in recent months, could be crucial for the right’s ability to form a
coalition. And, on the left, turnout for the Centre party could also prove
significant.
The small
leftwing party has made some headway in the polls, which it hopes could be sign
of a surge. In Stockholm municipality, in particular, it is gaining ground on
the Moderates and hopes to become the second biggest party.
The SD
had already won the immigration argument among mainstream Swedish political
parties, said Bo Petersson, a political science professor at Malmö University,
who argued that the election could become a test of whether the far-right party
had any further appeal to Swedish voters. “The mainstream parties have taken
the restrictive immigration politics and then there isn’t so much for SD to say
‘we are unique and stand for this’,” he said. “They have been a very clear part
of the establishment.”
Fredrik
Furtenbach, a senior political correspondent for Sveriges Radio, (Sweden’s
public broadcaster, said that if the rightwing parties won, the SD was likely
to get several ministerial posts which would be a “big breakthrough for them”.
If the
rightwing coalition loses, he expects there to be a post-election debate within
the centre-right parties about “whether they allowed the Sweden Democrats to
get too close”.
The
biggest issues among voters are healthcare, law and order, immigration and
Sweden’s economy.
After
heated television debates between leaders, the last of which was held on Friday
night, election results are expected on Sunday night, but it could take weeks
or even months of talks to form a government.
The
latest polls show an extremely tight race, with a Dagens Nyheter/Ipsos poll
showing on Friday just 0.3 percentage points between the left and right blocs,
which would leave Andersson’s left-leaning side with 175 seats and 174 for
Kristersson’s right-leaning side.
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