Declassified government documents released on September 9, 2026, reveal that Spain’s National Intelligence Center (CNI) warned local authorities, Madrid, and Moroccan intelligence a day before the massive July 30–31 border crisis.

 

Spanish intelligence warned of Ceuta mass crossing plans before surge

Declassified government documents released on September 9, 2026, reveal that Spain’s National Intelligence Center (CNI) warned local authorities, Madrid, and Moroccan intelligence a day before the massive July 30–31 border crisis.

The trove of 40 declassified files directly contradicts assertions by Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, who previously insisted the scale of the influx was entirely impossible to predict.

The Intelligence Warnings

• Social Media Monitoring: On July 29, the CNI flagged organized online campaigns calling for mass entries. Declassified WhatsApp alerts sent to Madrid's representative in Ceuta noted two distinct social media groups coordinating the border rush with a combined 180,000 followers.
• Exploiting the Holiday: Intelligence memos warned that migrants planned to scale fences or swim into the enclave by taking advantage of Morocco’s Throne Day holiday.
• Pre-Existing Chaos: A Spanish Defense Ministry report on July 30 noted that 1,700 migrants had already arrived by sea since July 25, officially describing the nearby Moroccan coastline as being in "migratory chaos".

Scale of the Breach & Political Fallout

During the full-scale surge on July 30 and 31, more than 72,000 people crossed into the Spanish territory. Human rights groups estimate that at least 140 migrants died during the crossing, primarily from drowning.

The publication of these documents by Reuters and other global media has escalated immense pressure on the Spanish government. Opposition parties claim the files prove the administration misled the public regarding its preparedness.

The files also document operational friction with Rabat. While Prime Minister Sánchez continues to maintain there is no evidence the Moroccan government orchestrated the rush, declassified internal logs from Spain's Interior Ministry explicitly highlighted "passivity among the Moroccan border police" on the day of the breach, stating that local Moroccan forces failed to implement a proactive response.

To help handle the aftermath, the European Commission announced an emergency grant of €114.7 million ($133.6 million) to Spain to bolster external borders and facilitate returns. Meanwhile, between 5,000 and 10,000 migrants remain stuck in makeshift camps in Ceuta, triggering near-daily protests from local residents