Historic
far-right victory deepens German political crisis
A
dominant showing in state elections has the German far right on the cusp of
governing for the first time since World War II.
Dave Braneck /
September 8, 2026
https://www.courthousenews.com/historic-far-right-victory-deepens-german-political-crisis/
MAGDEBURG,
Germany (CN) — The far-right Alternative for Germany’s triumphant result in
state elections Sunday has further shaken a rocky, and deeply
unpopular, German political establishment.
The
Alternative for Germany, or AfD, won 43.8% of the vote in the state of
Saxony-Anhalt, making postwar history for the far right. It was the party’s
best result in its 13-year history, and though a few seats shy of an outright
majority, put the far right within grasp of governing at the state level for
the first time since 1945.
“We’re
all deeply shocked,” said embattled German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in
response to the result. His incumbent Christian Democrats only mustered 17.2%,
down a whopping 19% from the previous result. The only potential majority
without the AfD would require literally all five other parties in Parliament
banding together.
Though
the AfD’s growth — especially in the former east — has continued unchecked
in the last decade, and the state party classified as “right-wing
extremist” by German domestic intelligence has long topped polls, its
election-night performance still surpassed expectations.
With the
vast majority of the political spectrum aligned against it, the AfD will begin
a potentially lengthy process of trying to assemble an actual governing
majority. Meanwhile, the rest of the country will once again have to decide
between simply sounding the alarm bells or actually shifting course
significantly enough to dissuade voters from drifting to the right.
On the
cusp of power
“The
coming days will show how serious the AfD is about governing — and what price
it is willing to pay,” Roger Stöcker, political scientist at Magdeburg’s Otto
von Guericke University, told Courthouse News.
The AfD’s
lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund says the returns gave him a “clear mandate to
govern.” He’ll have to lure defectors away from rival parties to actually
become Saxony-Anhalt’s minister president. While open to collaboration,
Siegmund is unlikely to compromise too widely.
Even if
he were ready to, most of the other parties elected into Parliament are still —
for now — committed to the “firewall,”
a commitment against collaborating with the AfD that has long been under
strain, and may finally be broken in the wake of this election. Only the BSW,
or Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, has signaled it’s open to working with, or at
least not completely blocking, a new AfD government.
“A
majority without the AfD is extremely unlikely. Everyone else — Christian
Democrats, Social Democrats, Greens, the Left, BSW — could in theory team up to
keep Siegmund out, but that’s a lot of very different parties who’d have to
agree with each other,” said Stöcker.
Siegmund
has vowed to use the state of 2.1 million as a laboratory
for far-right policies, like ramping up “remigration,” instituting a
“patriotic cultural policy” and cutting funding to public broadcasters.
“As a
non-EU person there are worries about the AfD majority, though who knows if
they can really form a government,” Sasi, an Indian student studying chemical
engineering in Magdeburg, told Courthouse News. “Many of my friends are scared,
but personally I am not too worried because I think Germany has a strong
democratic system and I think things can be fought in court if they get out of
hand.”
If the
AfD can find the three votes it needs to govern, it will put its policies — and
the strength
of Germany’s democratic institutions — to the test.
Rejecting
a stale status quo
Germany’s struggling
economy, strained
infrastructure, difficulty
integrating waves of refugees and a static political system featuring
shared governments between the center-right Christian
Democrats and their ostensible rival Social Democrats have all fueled
the AfD’s rise.
In
Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD has proven adept at winning over both dissatisfied
supporters of other parties and nonvoters.
“These
are people who had already turned their backs on politics. The AfD has brought
them back in droves. About 157,000 former nonvoters cast their ballot for the
AfD this time, way more than any other party,” said Roger Stöcker.
Exit
polling indicates immigration and security were AfD voters’ top concerns.
Justin, a 25-year-old warehouse worker who believes the AfD can “make Germany
great again” also cited immigration as his most important issue.
“Germany
is on a crash course right now, and if we can’t make some hard decisions and
really make changes the entire country will collapse,” he told Courthouse News.
Justin
notes while most parties are only visible in Saxony-Anhalt in the immediate
run-up to elections, the AfD have a real, regular presence on the ground.
Siegmund has even cultivated a celebrity status among supporters.
“He’s a
really strong leader. He’s the only politician that truly goes to the people,
and stands right next to us and talks with us. No other politicians are like
that in this country.”
The AfD
also won over nearly 60% of working class voters, highlighting frustration with
the economic prospects in a state with higher unemployment and significantly
lower incomes than the national average.
“I think
the election was about the economy and jobs in Saxony-Anhalt. That’s a topic in
all of Germany but it’s even more pertinent here,” Markus, a 43-year-old
working in the insurance industry, told Courthouse News.
Reshaping
German politics from Saxony-Anhalt?
Whether
or not the AfD could actually improve Saxony-Anhalt’s outlook is an open
debate.
Gisela, a
pensioner who was hoping “anyone but the AfD” would win the election, is
skeptical. “I’ve read their platform and I think it will bring Saxony-Anhalt to
the ground. I’m worried unemployment will rise and even more people will leave
the region,” she said.
Though
state power in Germany is relatively limited, the AfD governing would put state
and federal institutions to the test. And the election result alone could be
enough to shift federal politics.
The
result heaps pressure onto an already beleaguered Merz government. “The
election was a historic turning point, and the Christian Democrats will not be
able to shift its focus to day-to-day politics,” said Stöcker.
Merz has
said the election “must have consequences,” but what precisely that entails is
undetermined. His preferred tactic had previously been trying to ape AfD
policies — like a controversial
failed push for immigration reform before his government was
officially instated, or engaging in right-leaning
culture war talking points — to slow their ascent.
Germany’s
chancellor cannot change course on his own, and coalition partner Social
Democrats are facing
their own crisis of confidence. Leaders from all of Germany’s major parties
have highlighted the AfD as the biggest threat to German democracy for years,
but they appear to still be struggling to offer their own coherent alternative
to the status quo. If they can’t, Saxony-Anhalt could be just the beginning.
Courthouse
News reporter Dave Braneck is based in Germany.
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