Student commutes to University of London from Poland to save money on accommodation rent

Student commutes to University of London from Poland to save money on accommodation rent

Aftab Ali Student Editor Monday 28 September 2015 11:40 BST

http://www.independent.co.uk/student/student-commutes-to-university-of-london-from-poland-to-save-money-on-accommodation-rent-a6670016.html

Ever wonder why you pay so much rent for accommodation in London? Think you have a long and challenging commute in the morning on top of this too? Think again.

One student has revealed how life in The Big Smoke is so expensive that he flies 1,000 miles into his lectures at the University of London every week – from Poland.

Originally from Hampshire, anthropology major Jonathan Davey explained to The Mirror how renting a room near the university would have cost him up to £880 each month. But, after travelling throughout Europe last year, the 23-year-old now pays just £2,100 each year which includes pre-booked return flights, transport to and from the airport, and a weekly rent amount of just £35.

Leaving the port city of Gdańsk and flying into Luton at 6am every Wednesday, the student told the paper he stays in either cheap hostels or with friends until Friday before heading back to his Polish hostel at the weekend.

Describing how the cost of living for students is crippling and how he knows he is thousands of pounds better off living in Poland, Mr Davey added how the quality of life in Poland is much better than being in the UK.

Despite admitting how his parents think he is mad, he said: “I’ve shown them the figures and they can see I’m saving a fortune.”

The student’s move has only further highlights the accommodation crisis taking hold in London. Recently, the Sutton Trust published a report highlighting how bright, young people – especially those from disadvantages background – are being priced out of the city’s housing market – despite London being the top place in the country for law, medicine, media, and finance jobs.

Urging all 2016 mayoral election candidates to consider ways to address the issue, the authors of the report warned of the worrying implications for social mobility.

Câmara de Lisboa embargou obras polémicas na Quinta dos Inglesinhos em Telheiras

Câmara de Lisboa embargou obras polémicas na Quinta dos Inglesinhos em Telheiras

Altura do complexo desportivo em construção ultrapassa em 1,5 metros aquilo que foi aprovado

JOSÉ ANTÓNIO CEREJO 28/09/2015 -PÚBLICO

A montagem de uma estrutura metálica que já chegava à altura do quarto andar dos prédios circundantes, na Quinta dos Inglesinhos, em Telheiras, foi interrompida na semana passada por ordem da Câmara de Lisboa.

De acordo com a resposta enviada há dias pelo vereador do Urbanismo, Manuel Salgado, a um morador que reclamara contra as dimensões do pavilhão, o embargo deve-se ao facto de a estrutura ultrapassar em cerca de 1,5 metros a altura prevista no projecto aprovado.

O pavilhão embargado integrase num complexo que incluirá dois campos de ténis e três de padel, além de um espaço de restauração, e cuja construção começou a ser contestada há vários anos. A polémica desencadeada em torno do projecto radica no impacto, designadamente ao nível do estacionamento, que o complexo terá na zona envolvente.

Para o mesmo espaço, que é propriedade privada, apesar de Manuel Salgado ter chegado a admitir que ele pertencia ao município, a Junta de Freguesia de Carnide e os moradores que contestam a obra defenderam repetidamente, sem sucesso, a criação de um parque de estacionamento subterrâneo, recusando qualquer obra em altura. A Assembleia Municipal de Lisboa, em resposta a uma petição subscrita por 335 pessoas, aprovou por unanimidade, em Maio deste ano, uma recomendação à câmara no sentido de serem criados mais lugares de estacionamento na periferia do lote e de ser estudado o reordenamento do estacionamento em toda a zona de Telheiras.

Tanto os moradores como o presidente da junta de Carnide, Fábio Sousa (CDU), queixam-se de que a câmara nunca lhes deu qualquer informação sobre o projecto que entretanto aprovou e que prevê a construção de 25 lugares de estacionamento no interior do complexo. “Pedimos várias vezes reuniões conjuntas com o vereador do Urbanismo, a junta e os moradores, mas nunca fomos recebidos”, diz Fábio de Sousa.

De acordo com o autarca, a única coisa que se conhece sobre o projecto são os desenhos que o promotor — a empresa Racket4you — colocou no Facebook e que mostram um conjunto “sem grande impacto visual e sem qualquer construção em altura”. Agora, acrescenta, aquilo que as pessoas lá vêem não tem nada que ver com isso e “é um mamarracho que vai até à altura do 4.º andar.”

Fábio Sousa garante que a junta “não se vai conformar com esta solução” e acusa a câmara de ser “condescendente com os promotores”. Já um dos sócios da Racket4you, Miguel Pragana, diz que a necessidade de aumentar a altura do bloco em que serão instalados os campos de padel é uma consequência da pressão feita pela câmara para que fossem criados 25 lugares de estacionamento no primeiro piso, por baixo dos campos. Segundo afirma, essa necessidade surgiu já no decurso da obra e por isso foi ontem entregue à câmara um projecto de alterações destinado a legalizar a construção embargada. Na opinião do empresário, o aumento da altura “não tem qualquer impacte na zona envolvente”.

The Death Of Bees Explained – Parasites, Poison and Humans

In 2015 the bees are still dying in masses. Which at first seems not very important until you realize that one third of all food humans consume would disappear with them. Millions could starve. The foes bees face are truly horrifying – some are a direct consequence of human greed. We need to help our small buzzing friends or we will face extremely unpleasant consequences.

Why some scientists are worried about a surprisingly cold ‘blob’ in the North Atlantic Ocean

Why some scientists are worried about a surprisingly cold ‘blob’ in the North Atlantic Ocean

By Chris Mooney September 24 / http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/09/24/why-some-scientists-are-worried-about-a-surprisingly-cold-blob-in-the-north-atlantic-ocean/?postshare=1461443200380733

“Global warming is now slowing down the circulation of the oceans — with potentially dire consequences”

It is, for our home planet, an extremely warm year.

Indeed, last week we learned from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration that the first eight months of 2015 were the hottest such stretch yet recorded for the globe’s surface land and oceans, based on temperature records going to 1880. It’s just the latest evidence that we are, indeed, on course for a record-breaking warm year in 2015.

Yet, if you look closely, there’s one part of the planet that is bucking the trend. In the North Atlantic Ocean south of Greenland and Iceland, the ocean surface has seen very cold temperatures for the past eight months. What’s up with that?

First of all, it’s no error. I checked with Deke Arndt, chief of the climate monitoring branch at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, who confirmed what the map above suggests — some parts of the North Atlantic Ocean saw record cold in the past eight months. As Arndt put it by email:

For the grid boxes in darkest blue, they had their coldest Jan-Aug on record, and in order for a grid box to be “eligible” for that map, it needs at least 80 years of Jan-Aug values on the record.

Those grid boxes encompass the region from “20W to 40W and from 55N to 60N,” Arndt explained.

And there’s not much reason to doubt the measurements — the region is very well sampled. “It’s pretty densely populated by buoys, and at least parts of that region are really active shipping lanes, so there’s quite a lot of observations in the area,” Arndt said. “So I think it’s pretty robust analysis.”

Thus, the record seems to be a meaningful one — and there is a much larger surrounding area that, although not absolutely the coldest it has been on record, is also unusually cold.

At this point, it’s time to ask what the heck is going on here. And while there may not yet be any scientific consensus on the matter, at least some scientists suspect that the cooling seen in these maps is no fluke but, rather, part of a process that has been long feared by climate researchers — the slowing of Atlantic Ocean circulation.

In March, several top climate scientists, including Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Michael Mann of Penn State, published a paper in Nature Climate Change suggesting that the gigantic ocean current known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC, is weakening. It’s sometimes confused with the “Gulf Stream,” but, in fact, that’s just a southern branch of it.

The current is driven by differences in the temperature and salinity of ocean water (for a more thorough explanation, see here). In essence, cold salty water in the North Atlantic sinks because it is more dense, and warmer water from farther south moves northward to take its place, carrying tremendous heat energy along the way. But a large injection of cold, fresh water can, theoretically, mess it all up — preventing the sinking that would otherwise occur and, thus, weakening the circulation.

In the Nature Climate Change paper, the researchers suggested that this source of freshwater is the melting of Greenland, which is now losing more than a hundred billion tons of ice each year.

I asked Mann and Rahmstorf to comment on the blue spot on the map above by e-mail. Here’s what Mann had to say:

I was formerly somewhat skeptical about the notion that the ocean “conveyor belt” circulation pattern could weaken abruptly in response to global warming. Yet this now appears to be underway, as we showed in a recent article, and as we now appear to be witnessing before our very eyes in the form of an anomalous blob of cold water in the sup-polar North Atlantic.

Rahmstorf also commented as follows:

The fact that a record-hot planet Earth coincides with a record-cold northern Atlantic is quite stunning. There is strong evidence — not just from our study — that this is a consequence of the long-term decline of the Gulf Stream System, i.e. the Atlantic ocean’s overturning circulation AMOC, in response to global warming.

I also asked Rahmstorf whether, if his thinking is right, we should expect this cold patch to become a permanent feature of temperature maps, even as the world continues to warm. His answer was complex, but not anything that gives you much reassurance:

The short term variations will at some point also go the other way again, so I don’t expect the subpolar Atlantic to remain at record cold permanently. But I do expect the AMOC to decline further in the coming decades. The accelerated melting of the Greenland ice sheet will continue to contribute to this decline by diluting the ocean waters.

Granted, it’s not clear that all climate scientists agree with this interpretation of what’s happening in the North Atlantic — but clearly some important ones do, and they have published their conclusions in an influential journal.

The longer the situation continues, the more it is likely to attract attention. But it has already been around for a while. “It’s been really persistent over the last year and a half or so,” NOAA’s Arndt says.

Indeed, I spoke with Rahmstorf previously about the cold patch in the North Atlantic in March, when his study came out — and when a NOAA temperature chart for December 2014 through February 2015 also showed record cold in this area. As Rahmstorf wrote back then, “The North Atlantic between Newfoundland and Ireland is practically the only region of the world that has defied global warming and even cooled.” Since then, the trend appears to have only continued.

So in sum, if Mann and Rahmstorf are right, a slowing of Atlantic Ocean circulation could be beginning, and even leaving a temperature signature for all to see.

This won’t lead to anything remotely like The Day After Tomorrow (which was indeed based — quite loosely — on precisely this climate scenario). But if the trend continues, there could be many consequences, including rising seas for the U.S. East Coast and, possibly, a difference in temperature overall in the North Atlantic and Europe.

So on future climate maps, even as we rack up more hot months and years, we’d better watch the North Atlantic closely.

9 faces to watch in Portugal’s election

9 faces to watch in Portugal’s election

An interesting array of candidates for prime minister.

By PAUL AMES 9/28/15, 5:30 AM CET / http://www.politico.eu/article/portugal-elections-2015-campaign-nine-faces-to-watch/

LISBON — The issues may not be sexy, but the candidates for prime minister of Portugal are turning heads here.

On October 4, the Portuguese cast their ballots among 16 parties whose leaders include Europe’s “hottest” prime minister, a former avant-guard theater actress and a pregnant psychologist with a tendency for appearing naked in magazines.

Polls predict a close race but most put the governing center-right coalition ahead with around 38 percent of the vote, while the Socialists are expected to garner 33 percent, according to a survey late last week by Intercampus for the daily Público newspaper, TVI television and TSF radio.

If the polls are right, neither side is expected to win an outright majority.

That is raising fears of a weak government unable to push through reforms need to bolster the economy that has only recently begun to recover from years of recession.

Even more scary for international creditors: the Socialists could be tempted to share power with smaller parties further to the left who advocate rebellion from economic mores of the European Union.

Here are the candidates putting some pep into Portugal’s vote:

Pedro Passos Coelho

Pedro Passos Coelho has been Portugal’s prime minister since 2011. He is Europe’s hottest (as in looking) elected leader, according to hottestheadsofstate.com.

The smooth-talking head of the Social Democratic Party (PSD) — which is center-right despite the name — was once married to a singer from a girl’s band dubbed Portugal’s answer to the Spice Girls.

A 51-year-old economist, Passos Coelho is reportedly a tuneful crooner himself who likes to serenade house guests with renditions of Lisbon’s bluesy fado music.

His second wife is a physiotherapist from the West African nation of Guinea Bissau, currently battling cancer.

Passos Coelho has a cautious, low-key approach to politics. He’s kept the country on an austerity course, winning plaudits from Brussels for bringing down budget deficits and reforms that have led the country into modest growth after a long recession. He is loathed by the left for public spending cuts, tax hikes and privatizations.

Still, polls give him a chance of becoming the second leader of a bailed out euro-zone country to secure re-election, following Greece’s Alexis Tsipras last week.

António Costa

Hoping to unseat him is Socialist Party (PS) leader António Costa.

The two men have contrasting styles. Costa is a bullish, in-your-face politician who thrives on the stump, sleeves rolled up, thumping the tub.

His headstrong approach can lead him into trouble: He recently fired off an insulting and vaguely threatening late-night text to a critical journalist.

Costa easily won the only head-to-head TV debate with a number-crunching Passos Coelho, but the party’s poll rating has been slipping as the election approaches.

If Costa can turn the ratings around, the 54-year-old lawyer could be considered Europe’s first prime minister of color — his father was a writer from India. Yet race is not a factor in the campaign and is rarely mentioned in the media.

Costa is an experienced administrator, serving as justice minister and for seven years as a popular mayor of Lisbon.

Since taking the party leadership last year, he’s shifted the Socialists to the left, but Costa is firmly rooted in Europe’s center-left mainstream — more likely to ally with French President François Hollande and Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi than launch a solo act à la Tsipras.

Traditional PS moderation would be tested, however, if Costa teams up with the far left to secure a parliamentary majority.

Catarina Martins and Mariana Mortágua

Among his options would be a deal with the Left Bloc (BE), a radical party in the mold of Syriza and Spain’s Podemos.

The party’s run by a six-member committee rather than a single leader, but 41-year-old actress Catarina Martins serves as spokesperson. She’s had a good campaign pushing polls ratings up to 8 percent — perhaps enough to give it a kingmaker role.

Martins shares the limelight with 29-year-old lawmaker Mariana Mortágua who rose to prominence by making Portugal’s financial elite squirm under her questioning during a parliamentary inquiry into last year’s collapse of the Espírito Santo banking empire. Mortágua has revolutionary pedigree; her father was a bank-robbing, hijacking opponent of Portugal’s dictatorship in the 1960s.

Behind their jeans-and-sneakers image, Martins and Mortágua are tough political operators with a mission to overturn the economic order.

The Bloc has youthful appeal, but it’s been weakened by high-profile splits and its association with Syriza’s flirtation with Grexit this summer.

Jerónimo de Sousa

The other significant player on the left is Jerónimo de Sousa, general secretary of the Portuguese Communist Party (PCP).

At 68, he’s the oldest lead candidate and his class-struggle rhetoric harks back to a bygone age.

Still, de Sousa knows what he’s talking about when he denounces poverty in a country where the minimum wage is just €505 a month. Like many from poor families during Portugal’s dark days of dictatorship he toiled as a child laborer, starting in a steel mill at 14.

With piercing eyes and craggy features, de Sousa personifies Portugal’s determinedly old school Communists, a party that proudly flies the hammer-and-sickle flag and advocates nationalization of much of the economy.

The PCP commands wide respect even from opponents thanks to its political consistency and its lead role resisting Portugal’s 48-year dictatorship, which fell in 1974.

Still it’s been unable to expand support beyond a loyal core. Running in a coalition with the Green party, which they long ago co-opted, the Communists are polling below 10 percent and are struggling to keep third place.

Paulo Portas

Passos Coelho’s partner in the right-of-center coalition is Paulo Portas, perhaps Portugal’s canniest politician.

The 52-year-old bachelor heads the conservative Social and Democratic Center-Popular Party (CDS-PP) and is Portugal’s longest-serving party leader.

Portas has been dogged for years by murky rumors linking his name to a series of scandals. The most notable involves dodgy dealings during the navy’s purchase of German submarines when he was defense minister in 2004. But the dirt has never stuck.

In 2013, Portas was widely ridiculed when he announced his “irrevocable” decision to resign from the government over economic differences, only to change his mind three days later. A satirical song entailed “The irrevocable submarine,” was a modest hit last year for pop singer Rogério Charraz.

Portas’ teflon qualities are boosted by consummate political skills. The urbane former newspaper director is a master of the TV soundbite, but also has a knack for turning on the common touch. He works tirelessly hugging, kissing and charming his way through markets and rural fairs up and down the country.

José Sócrates

José Sócrates is not a candidate in the election, but he’s the politician everybody in Portugal is talking about.

The former prime minister was released this month after spending nine months behind bars while investigators probed tax fraud, corruption and money-laundering allegations. He remains under house arrest.

Voted out of power in 2011, the one-time-Socialist leader denies everything and claims he’s the victim of a political conspiracy. His release introduces a wild card into the election campaign.

The PS has been divided between diehard supporters who proclaim his innocence and flocked to visit him in jail, and those embarrassed by his high-flying, pre-jail lifestyle and uneasy over the graft allegations.

Sócrates’ presence during the TV debate between Costa and Passos Coelho was such that several Lisbon twitterites got drunk after knocking back shots every time his name was mentioned.

During his time in power, Sócrates was another regular on international “hottest politician” lists. His fans were relieved that the 58-year-old’s silver fox looks that once drew comparisons with George Clooney appeared unblemished by his months of incarceration.

Joana Amaral Dias

Joana Amaral Dias, is a psychologist, TV personality and former lawmaker, who split from the Left Bloc to form her own party called Act.

It’s one of a dozen parties struggling to get more than 1 percent of the vote, but despite the lack of voter interest she’s generated high-profile media coverage by displaying her heavily pregnant body naked in a couple of glossy magazine shoots.

Elsewhere on the fringe is another Left Bloc offshoot with the snappy name of Free-Time to Move Forward; a Maoist faction who launched its campaign with the slogan “Death to the Traitors,” and a pensioners’ party running under the acronym PURP. There’s a group demanding equal rights for animals and another advocating the restoration of the monarchy which fell in 1910.

If the election fails to produce a clear winner, Portugal’s President Aníbal Cavaco Silva will be thrown into the spotlight.

The 76-year-old head of state, whose role is usually ceremonial, will have to invite one of the candidates to form a government.

Cavaco Silva is a former leader of the PSD, but has annoyed Passos Coelho’s government with his habit of sending controversial laws to the Constitutional Court, where most were rejected.

His role could be further complicated by quirks in the voting system which mean the party with the most votes, may not necessarily win most seats.

Little wonder then, that Cavaco Silva has been calling on voters to choose a stable majority government.

Authors:

Paul Ames  

Catalan separatists win election and claim it as yes vote for breakaway

Catalan separatists win election and claim it as yes vote for breakaway

Spain set for political crisis as regional government election result spurs coalition on with plans for independence

Catalonian head votes in de facto independence election

Ashifa Kassam in Barcelona

Monday 28 September 2015 00.26 BST Last modified on Monday 28 September 2015 08.40 BST

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/28/catalan-separatists-win-election-and-claim-it-as-yes-vote-for-breakaway

Separatists took control of Catalonia’s regional government in an election result that could plunge Spain into one of its deepest political crises of recent years, by forcing Madrid to confront an openly secessionist government at the helm of one of its wealthiest regions.

A record-breaking number of Catalans cast their vote in Sunday’s election, billed as a de facto referendum on independence. With more than 98% of the votes counted, the nationalist coalition Junts pel Sí (Together for Yes) were projected to win 62 seats, while far-left pro-independence Popular Unity Candidacy, known in Spain as CUP, were set to gain 10 seats, meaning an alliance of the two parties could give secessionists an absolute majority in the region’s 135-seat parliament.

“We won,” said Catalan leaderArtur Mas i Gavarró, as a jubilant crowd waved estelada flags at a rally in Barcelona. “Today was a double victory – the yes side won, as did democracy.”

After attempts by Catalan leaders to hold a referendum on independence were blocked by the central government in Madrid, Mas sought to turn the elections into a de facto referendum, pledging to begin the process of breaking away from Spain if Junts pel Sí won a majority of seats.

His party fell six seats short of a majority on Sunday. But Mas vowed to push forward with independence. “We ask that the world recognise the victory of Catalonia and the victory of the yes,” he said. “We have won and that gives us an enormous strength to push this project forward.”

Junts pel Sí, representing parties from the left and right, as well as grassroots independence activists, captured 39.7% of the vote, while CUP received 8.2%. The result leaves the separatists with 47.9% of the vote, shy of the 50%, plus one seat, that they would have needed if Sunday’s vote had been a real referendum.

It’s a result that will leave the movement struggling to gain legitimacy on the world stage, said political analyst Josep Ramoneda, while setting Madrid and Barcelona on course for a collision. “The government in Catalonia will try to move forward with independence, but this result won’t allow them to take irreversible steps,” he said, pointing to a declaration of independence as an example. “I mean, nobody will recognise that.”

Instead, Catalonia will be left to face Madrid alone, who will seek to stymie any attempts to move forward with independence. The Spanish prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, has vowed to use the full power of the country’s judiciary to block any move towards independence.

In recent years, Rajoy and his governing conservative People’s party (PP) have refused to address underlying grievances over Catalonia’s language and identity, as well as concerns that the region pays more in taxes than it receives in investments and transfers from Madrid. Instead, his party repeatedly turned to the country’s constitutional court to shut down the process, backed by the Spanish constitution, which does not allow regions to unilaterally decide on sovereignty.

On Sunday, Catalans rebuffed the PP strategy in the region, giving them 11 seats, down from 19 seats in the previous elections and one of the party’s poorest showings ever in the Catalan regional parliament. “These are not the results we expected or wanted,” Xavier García Albiol, the PP leader in Catalonia said on Sunday.

The PP emerged as one of the election’s biggest losers, said Emilio Sáenz-Francés, a professor of history and international relations at Madrid’s Comillas Pontifical University. “This is a disastrous result for the PP.” The result is a continuation of a downward trend for the PP, he added, pointing to May’s regional and municipal elections, which saw them lose 2.5m votes.

More than a club: FC Barcelona and Catalonia’s road to independence

Many Catalans opposed to independence instead turned to centre-right Ciutadans, the regional arm of Ciudadanos. The party more than doubled its number of elected officials from 2012, from 9 to 25, making them the second-strongest party in the new Catalan parliament. “They are constitutionalists with ideas that are much clearer than the PP,” said Sáenz-Francés. “And above all, they have something that is extremely important right now in Spain, and that is new faces.”

Rather than giving the separatists a strong mandate, Sunday’s election simply reinforced that Spain has a problem, said Sáenz-Francés. “While the headline is not ‘Catalonia votes in favour of independence and Spain breaks apart’, it’s rather ‘Spain has to face the problem of Catalonia’s integration’.”

Whether or not Catalonia’s newest parliament will be able to successfully address this issue may depend on whether Junts pel Sí, made up of forces from the left and right of the political spectrum, can find common ground with the far-left CUP.

CUP has said it favours moving forward with independence if separatists win a majority of seats and votes. They have also taken aim at the idea of Mas leading the transitional government, pointing to the austerity measures implemented by his centre-right government and hinting at the string of corruption scandals that have plagued his party, Democratic Convergence, in recent years.

On Sunday evening, CUP member Anna Gabriel said the independence project would continue, but noted that “Artur Mas isn’t essential”. CUP has also lobbied for a more immediate break with Spain, rather than the 18-month timeline charted by Junts pel Sí.

Any alliance with CUP may also modify the route to independence envisioned by Junts pel Sí. Mas has said the transitional government’s first step would be a declaration, made within days of taking office, proclaiming the beginning of the process to break away from Spain. From there, the priority of the government would be to sit down with Madrid and European institutions to address issues such as the management of shared borders, the energy grid and the Ebro river basin.

The creation of state structures will also begin – from a diplomatic service to a central bank – to be ready in time for the proclamation of a new Catalan state. Plans for the first of these new state structures, a regional tax agency modelled on that of Sweden and Australia, was halted by Spain’s constitutional court earlier this month after the court agreed to hear a challenge lodged by the central government in Madrid.

The same fate could befall many of the state structures envisioned by Mas. Last week, the Spanish prime minister said Madrid would continue to use the courts to block any move towards Catalan independence. “We would go to the constitutional court. And that’s the way it is. Full stop,” Rajoy told broadcaster Onda Cero.

7 takeaways from the Catalonia election

7 takeaways from the Catalonia election

Goodbye Madrid: Catalans vote for an ‘adios’ to Spain.

By JAN MAROT 9/28/15, 12:20 AM CET Updated 9/28/15, 10:14 AM CET http://www.politico.eu/article/7-takeaways-from-the-catalonia-election-spain-eu-brussels/

BARCELONA — Only hours after the polls closed in Catalonia on September 27, it is clear that we are feeling the rumble of tectonic change. This promises to rock not just Spain, but to throw the European Union into a state of ferment at a time when Brussels has, to put it mildly, much too much on its plate already.

Here are seven takeaways from the vote in Catalonia

1 This is a vote for secession from Spain.

Catalonians have made a clear choice in their regional elections. With a level of participation so historically huge that they even ran out of ballots, 77.4 percent of the electorate voted. This is a record in democratic, post-Franco Spain. The secessionist coalition “Together for Yes” — Junts Pel Si —obtained 39.6 percent of the vote and thus 62 seats in the Catalan regional parliament. Together with the pro-independence leftist CUP (10 seats) they can form a government with a clear absolute majority of 72 seats (in a house of 135), but not in votes (48.1 percent). It’s also a huge strategic victory for President Artur Mas, who could now lead the Catalans to independence with little scope for compromise: After all, independence was the cornerstone of his manifesto. A new autonomous status within Spain will not be enough.

2 The Roadmap for an express-divorce says (at most) “18 months to go.”

This is what Mas and his coalition for secession have set as their deadline for Catalan independence. Immediately, they will start to write a Catalan constitution — “the most glorious pages of Catalan history,” promised Junts Pel Si candidates celebrating their victory. “It was a clear plebiscite,” added Mas, the proud winner. But euphoria apart, since Barcelona and Madrid have no common denominator, mediation is needed. Swiss Members of Parliament have proposed that neutral Switzerland play midwife. Brussels, as well as fellow EU member states, will have to put Catalonian independence on the agenda.

3 A decisive and bitter defeat for Madrid

This is a massive jolt for Spain, and, foremost, for Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy and his People’s Party (Partido Popular), who obtained only eleven seats in the Catalan parliament. Their strategy of spreading fear of the consequences of secession among Catalan citizens failed, as the results indicate. Madrid is running out of options, and should now allow a formal referendum in Catalonia, letting the Catalonians themselves decide on the language of the question. Rupture may not necessarily be the final outcome, as we have seen in Scotland. Nevertheless negotiation, and real dialogue, is key, beyond populism and stubbornness. But when and by whom? Rajoy, it would appear, has disqualified himself in the eyes of the Catalan public; and he could be replaced soon after Spain’s general elections in December.

4 The European Union is formally bound to exclude Catalonia

Since there is no EU roadmap for the independence of regions within member states, a swift secession of Catalonia would automatically exclude the new nation from the European Union and the euro. However, looking at the economic strength of Catalonia, as well as its democratic, hugely pro-European society, it is likely that neither Brussels, nor many EU-member-states, would have the appetite to punish a Catalan Republic. There will be vigorous pressure for compromise, and creative solutions. As far as nationality is concerned, Spain’s constitution highlights that citizens “living abroad” can keep their Spanish passport. Thus, it is likely that the citizens of a Catalan Republic — even without membership of the EU — would still keep their EU-citizenship in an unprecedented anomaly.

What will happen to Spain’s soccer Liga? Will soccer fans be bored to death in upcoming seasons by an all-dominant Barça in a Catalan league? More importantly, FC Barcelona would lose a lot of income from La Liga broadcasting rights, as the president of Spain’s Sports Council Miguel Cardenal has indicated. Barça’s mainly pro-independence presidency and players would still like to keep playing in La Liga. Maybe a compromise is possible — and desirable, too, for the sake of Barça’s fans, and soccer fans the world over.

6 Legal options against Catalan secession are few

For Madrid to challenge the Catalan elections or President Mas via the Constitutional court would not be a fruitful strategy. But Rajoy changed national security law just weeks ahead of the Catalan elections, allowing for central government intervention in regional policy. Madrid has the “nuclear” option to relieve regional presidents from office. Another option would be a “third way”: A reform of the Spanish state into a federal nation of hugely autonomous regions, with equal rights and obligations for all regions — and not as now, with Basques and Catalans enjoying more autonomy than others.

7 New emerging political forces are here to stay

The free-market, populist Ciudadanos, with 18 percent of the vote, won a healthy 25 seats. In 2012 they had nine. They finished in second place, with the most convincing pro-unity-with-Spain campaign. But the established parties of the left and right — the Socialists and the People’s Party, respectively — are facing severe losses in voter support and confidence. The pro-Spain Catalan Socialists (PSC) managed to stave off collapse with 16 seats, down from 20 in 2012. But not Rajoy’s People’s Party, which is licking its wounds with just 11 seats, down from 19. The future looks grim for Rajoy and his party. It’s hugely difficult to win a Spanish general election without achieving at least a decent result in Catalonia.

Jan Marot is a freelance correspondent for Spain, Portugal, and Northern Africa.

Authors:

Jan Marot