French far-right leader Marine Le Pen is polling at a record high and is currently projected to win the 2027 French presidential election, according to recent survey data.

 

French far-right leader Marine Le Pen polling at record high ahead of 2027 election

French far-right leader Marine Le Pen is polling at a record high and is currently projected to win the 2027 French presidential election, according to recent survey data.

Toluna Harris Interactive Poll

A poll conducted by Toluna Harris Interactive for French broadcasters RTL and M6, published on August 24, 2026, shows Le Pen holding a commanding lead. The survey of 1,764 registered voters outlines the following projections for both election rounds:

First Round Projections

Le Pen maintains a lead of at least 16 points ahead of her closest competitors across all tested scenarios.

• Marine Le Pen (National Rally): 35% to 38% of voting intentions.
• Jean-Luc Mélenchon (La France Insoumise): 16% to 17% (up from 12% in April).
• Édouard Philippe (Horizons): 14% to 17%.
• Gabriel Attal (Renaissance): 8%.

Second Round Runoff Simulations

If no candidate secures a majority on April 18, 2027, a runoff will take place on May 2, 2027. The poll indicates Le Pen would win the presidency regardless of her opponent:

• Le Pen vs. Mélenchon: Le Pen wins with 68% against Mélenchon's 32%.
• Le Pen vs. Philippe: Le Pen wins with 55% against Philippe's 45%.

Key Factors Reshaping the Race

• The Rise of Mélenchon: Hard-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon has overtaken center-right former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe in three out of five first-round scenarios. This increases the likelihood of a runoff between two candidates who are highly skeptical of the EU and NATO.
• Crowded Moderate Field: Centrist and center-left politicians have voiced concern that a fractured moderate field is ceding ground to political extremes. For instance, center-left MEP Raphaël Glucksmann officially announced his candidacy on August 23, 2026, further dividing non-aligned voters.
• Legal Clearance for Le Pen: On July 7, 2026, the Paris Court of Appeal upheld Le Pen's conviction for embezzling European Parliament funds but reduced her political office ban, clearing her path to officially run in 2027. She faces a one-year sentence under house arrest with an electronic ankle tag, though she has appealed to the Cour de Cassation to potentially campaign without the tracking device.