Opinion
Brexit
UK-French rivalry puts the west at risk
The problem is not fish, or Northern Ireland — it’s
Brexit. And it’s time for the US to stage an intervention
GIDEON
RACHMAN
© James Ferguson
This is the
week that Boris Johnson is meant to rally the world against climate change. But
the British prime minister goes into COP26 distracted by an acrimonious row
with France about fish.
Sniping and
rivalry between Britain and France is becoming a serious international problem.
The G7 summit in June took place against the backdrop of another Franco-British
dispute — on that occasion about Northern Ireland.
Every minor
disagreement between the two countries seems to escalate into an exchange of
threats and insults. The underlying problem is not fish, or Northern Ireland.
It is Brexit. Put simply, Johnson needs it to succeed and Emmanuel Macron,
France’s president, needs it to fail.
A leaked
letter from Jean Castex, France’s prime minister, to the European Commission
suggested that it is important to demonstrate to European public opinion that
the costs of leaving the EU are greater than remaining. The British have seized
upon this as evidence that Paris is seeking to punish Britain for Brexit. The
French claim that this is a wilful misinterpretation.
The UK
government’s eagerness to put the worst possible gloss on the letter is
telling. Although Johnson is riding high after a successful Conservative party
conference, opinion polls suggest that the British public are coming to the
view that Brexit was a mistake. In response to the question, “In hindsight do
you think Britain was right or wrong to leave the EU”, 49 per cent replied
wrong and 38 per cent right. Another recent poll showed 53 per cent believe
that Brexit has led to higher prices.
These shifts
in public opinion could spell trouble for Johnson, particularly if inflation
and shortages worsen over the winter. That makes a clash with Macron all too
tempting. If the French carry out a threat to slow the traffic of British goods
through Channel ports, any subsequent shortages could be blamed on French
bloody-mindedness rather than the inherent defects of Brexit.
The British
government also seems to be preparing to make unilateral changes to the
Northern Ireland protocol that was part of the Brexit deal. A row with France
could allow Johnson to claim those changes are a response to French
intransigence, rather than an act of bad faith by Britain.
Macron,
like Johnson, is under intense political pressure. He faces a presidential
election in April. Eric Zemmour, the rising star of the far right, has
repeatedly insisted “the English won the battle of Brexit”. Macron needs to
squash that idea.
The
conclusion of Aukus — a secretly-negotiated security pact between Australia,
the UK and the US — came as a severe blow to France. One US official says:
“France believed Brexit had made Britain irrelevant and that we would bypass
London. Then they discovered we had done a secret deal with the Brits, behind
their backs.” France’s anger was compounded by the loss of a valuable defence
contract with Australia.
Britain
after Brexit newsletter
Keep up to
date with the latest developments, post-Brexit, with original weekly insights
from our public policy editor Peter Foster and senior FT writers. Sign up here.
The pressure
the Macron government is under is reflected in the slightly hysterical tone of
some recent communications. Clément Beaune, France’s Europe minister, asserted
that the only language the British understand is force.
Something
clearly needs to be done to wind down these tensions in a manner that lasts
longer than a few weeks. Ben Judah of the Atlantic Council think-tank, who is a
dual French-British national, makes the creative suggestion that the two
countries should form a joint committee of grandees to work on a plan for
cross-channel reconciliation. In an ideal world, such an initiative could pave
the way for a new “Entente Cordiale” — the 1904 deal that defused a previous
round of British-French rivalry.
But neither
London nor Paris seems ready to patch things up. Peter Ricketts, a former
British ambassador to Paris, predicts that there will be several more years of
sniping before relations eventually improve.
The western
alliance cannot afford that. The poison between the UK and France is liable to
spread and infect Nato, the G7 and international negotiations on everything
from climate change to trade.
UK-French
frictions will also make it harder to form common western positions in disputes
with China and Russia. Thomas Wright of the Brookings Institution worries that
Britain and France risk turning into “the Japan and South Korea of Europe” —
two close American allies that are also bitter rivals.
In Asia,
the US has tried to build bridges between Tokyo and Seoul. It may now be time
for Washington to perform the same role between London and Paris. The Americans
need to squash illusions on both sides. The British need to understand that the
US sees the EU as a crucial partner and will not snub Brussels in favour of
“the Anglosphere”. The French need to accept that the US needs Brexit Britain
to succeed and will not treat the UK as a rogue state.
America’s
ability to play the role of honest broker is complicated by Aukus. But Biden
seems genuinely contrite about blindsiding France and has moved quickly to
patch things up.
The fact
that both Macron and Johnson clearly value their close relationship with Biden
gives the US an opportunity. To use the language of counselling, the Americans
need to “stage an intervention”. They should try to persuade the British and
French to drop their most outlandish threats and to work together in their own
interests and those of the wider west.
gideon.rachman@ft.com
.jpeg)
Sem comentários:
Enviar um comentário