As of May 2026, Friedrich Merz faces a critical turning point in his chancellorship as the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has overtaken his conservative CDU/CSU alliance to become the most popular party in Germany.

 

Merz and the growing of the AFD in the polls

As of May 2026, Friedrich Merz faces a critical turning point in his chancellorship as the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has overtaken his conservative CDU/CSU alliance to become the most popular party in Germany.

Current Polling Trends (May 2026)

The AfD has reached record highs in nationwide polls, while Merz’s approval and his governing coalition's support have plummeted.

• National Rankings: Recent INSA and Forsa polls place the AfD at 27%–28%, with the CDU/CSU trailing at 22%–24%.
• Government Dissatisfaction: Approximately 75% of voters are reportedly dissatisfied with the Merz government, which has been plagued by internal infighting and a stagnant economy.
• Regional Dominance: The AfD is currently polling around 40% in eastern German states like Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, where state elections are scheduled for September 2026.

Merz’s Strategy and the "Firewall"

Merz initially took office in May 2025 vowing to weaken the AfD by providing "effective governance" and shifting the CDU to a tougher stance on immigration. However, this strategy has struggled:

• The "Firewall": Merz remains strictly committed to the Brandmauer (firewall), ruling out any coalition or formal cooperation with the AfD, labeling them anti-democratic and "friends of Russia".
• Failed Outflanking: Despite implementing tighter immigration rules that decreased arrivals, Merz has not seen a corresponding boost in poll numbers. Political analysts suggest his "impulsive" style and public squabbles with coalition partners (the SPD) have instead driven voters toward the AfD.
• Economic Impact: Germany's fragile economic recovery, further strained by international trade tensions and energy shocks from the war in the Middle East, has fueled public discontent, benefiting the AfD's anti-establishment rhetoric.

Future Outlook

The remainder of 2026 is viewed as a "super election year" for Germany. The AfD's current momentum creates a high probability that they could lead a state government for the first time or become a permanent disruptive force in the Bundesrat (upper legislative chamber)