Projections for the local elections on Thursday, May 7, 2026, suggest that Reform UK is poised for historic gains that could fundamentally reshape British local government.

 

Will Reform win a lot in the next local elections?

Projections for the local elections on Thursday, May 7, 2026, suggest that Reform UK is poised for historic gains that could fundamentally reshape British local government.

Building on their "sweeping victory" in 2025, where they gained 677 councillors and took control of 10 councils, Nigel Farage's party is entering these elections as a leading force in national polls.

Key Projections for Reform UK in 2026

• Seat Gains: Analysts predict Reform could gain between 1,000 and 2,260 additional council seats across England. This would more than triple their current local representation.
• Council Control: The party is specifically targeting traditionally Conservative county councils in the East of England. Projections indicate they may take outright control of Essex, Norfolk, and Suffolk.
• Breakthrough in "Red Wall" Areas: Reform is expected to challenge Labour’s dominance in northern metropolitan boroughs. They are projected to take control of, or become the largest party in, councils like Sunderland, Wakefield, Barnsley, and Thurrock.
• London Presence: While traditionally weaker in the capital, Reform is competitive in outer London boroughs like Bexley, Bromley, Havering, and Hillingdon, where they are pressuring Conservative majorities.

Context of the Surge

The anticipated Reform "romp" is driven by several factors:

• Widespread Dissatisfaction: Both Labour and the Conservatives are polling at historic lows (around 17–20% each), with voters citing the cost of living and immigration as top priorities.
• Full Slate of Candidates: Reform is contesting roughly 99.9% of all available wards, a massive logistical shift from 2022 when they had near-zero local presence.
• National Elections: For the first time, Reform is also projected to make major inroads in the Senedd (Welsh Parliament) and the Scottish Parliament, with some polls in Wales even placing them in a tight race with Plaid Cymru for first place.

Potential Obstacles

• Tactical Voting: Polling suggests that strong anti-Reform tactical voting—where Labour supporters vote Conservative (or vice-versa) to block Reform—could cost the party dozens of seats.
• London Demographics: Reform's vote share in London (projected at ~9–15%) remains significantly lower than its national average (~24–31%), which may limit their total seat count in the capital.