segunda-feira, 30 de novembro de 2020

Boris Johnson will get a deal: but it will be a betrayal of the Brexiters // 5 signs this is the real Brexit crunch (and 4 that it isn’t)

 



Boris Johnson will get a deal: but it will be a betrayal of the Brexiters

Polly Toynbee

This is the moment when he’ll have to accept that no-deal is a disaster – and break all those fairy-dust promises

 

Mon 30 Nov 2020 17.40 GMT

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/nov/30/boris-johnson-deal-betrayal-brexiters-no-deal

 

Ignore the blustering brinkmanship: there will be a deal between Britain and the EU. This week, next week or in the final second before the clock strikes 12, this Brexit-crazed government will sign on the line.

 

It needs no crystal ball to foresee a deal. Though this government is disgraceful and dishonest, it is not certifiably insane. It will not kill off the car industry, manufacturing, farming, finance and fishing. It will not cut off security and police relations with Europe. Nor will it want a hard border in Ireland, breaking the Good Friday agreement. And nor will it freeze friendship with the new US president, nor leave relations with our nearest neighbours and traders irreparably rancorous.

 

The Faragists, and the hardcore MPs in the European Research Group, want that door-slam, still seeking the forever unattainable sovereignty phantasm. But for Boris Johnson’s Brexit cabinet, this is the moment of truth. Finally ministers have to face up to the futility of what they have done: they will struggle to deny their Brexit idea was a lie, never available. For the Brexiteers, Johnson’s deal will fail miserably. That’s because any deal would always trade some of that sovereignty fairy dust for something more tangible – such as no massive tariff on British beef.

 

However hard he bluffs and fibs to disguise the inconvenient truth, Johnson will sign a deal that agrees to align with EU standards on working rights, animal welfare, the environment and much else. For any future divergences there will be an adjudications body, which may or may not be the European court of justice.

 

Fish will be reapportioned, with complexity and transitions that try to shield the hard fact: we took back control of our waters in theory, but gave it up in the same breath because there is no fishing industry without that vital EU market to buy more than 70% of our catch. Our 12,000 fisher folk were shamefully exploited as Brexit visual aids; everyone knew they were destined to be sold down the Channel. This is the last bitter cod-liver oil pill that UK negotiators are struggling to swallow, but they will.

 

Lawbreaking clauses in the internal markets bill repudiating last year’s EU withdrawal agreement will be abandoned. The Northern Ireland protocol will stand – so there will be a border down the Irish Sea, with customs posts. That’s despite Johnson pledging, “There’s no question of there being checks on goods going from Northern Ireland to Great Britain or Great Britain to Northern Ireland.”

 

Those who shout betrayal will be dead right. Everyone who voted Brexit, or for Johnson, believing his magical cake-and-eat-it deal was oven-ready will be betrayed. His party’s manifesto read: “Boris Johnson’s new deal takes the whole country out of the EU as one United Kingdom.” No, Northern Ireland is left out. And watch another crack in the union open under an SNP victory in next May’s Holyrood elections. Betrayed are any who believed last year’s Tory manifesto unicorn: “Get Brexit done – and we will see a pent-up tidal wave of investment into our country.”

 

A deal was always inevitable because the rules laid out by Margaret Thatcher’s single market are crystal clear: the more you want to trade with the market, the more you must conform to it. Johnson will attempt whoops of Waterloo triumph as he tries to smear lipstick on his pig of a deal. The EU will politely suck lemons, though Emmanuel Macron may spit back.

 

Here’s the verdict from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) on the deal, hidden in annexes and unearthed by Jill Rutter for UK in a Changing Europe. The deal will cause a 4% drop in GDP. Even the pandemic won’t hide the Brexit hit to manufacturing and finance, as mountainous red tape includes 270m customs declarations (as opposed to 55m now) and 50,000 new customs agents. New customs IT will only go live on 23 December; road hauliers have no handbooks; lorry parks are unfinished. No wonder the chancellor, Rishi Sunak, was silent on Brexit in his spending review last week.

 

All ministers have been forced to look over the no-deal abyss. That’s why they know they face the worst of all worlds: they will eat their words and betray fellow Brexiters, yet still carpet-bomb the country’s economy.

 

Labour must hose down victory cheers for this deal with an icy shower of contempt. Naturally, Labour says it will examine the deal first. But then Keir Starmer must forensically shred its several-hundred pages. Those arguing that voting for it might bring back “red wall” seats are fighting the last war: voting for it is to own it, and its effects will be painfully clear by the next election. David Cameron backed the Iraq war and it hamstrung his later attacks on its calamitous consequences.

 

As shadow Brexit secretary, Starmer laid out six tests. The key demand was to meet the Tories’ pledge to deliver the “exact same benefits” we get from the single market and customs union.

 

The upcoming deal will spectacularly fail that test: voting for it risks Starmer’s reputation for straight-dealing. The border chaos, shortages on shelves, even medicines delayed may last for months, but the OBR and Bank of England have exposed deeper damage to come. Looking back, it will seem clear that an opposition should have opposed it. Abstention is not pusillanimous, but the only honourable option.

 

And there’s also the possibility that Johnson’s delays might mean a deal comes too late for parliament to vote on it. So at the very least, Labour should not decide how to vote until it sees the bill.

 

Of course, Labour could be obliged to vote for it and save the nation if a humiliated Johnson can’t stop his MPs voting it down. But that’s unlikely; and to vote for this atrocious deal in any other circumstance would be Starmer’s first serious mistake.

 

Polly Toynbee is a Guardian columnist


5 signs this is the real Brexit crunch (and 4 that it isn’t)

 

After weeks of false hope an EU-UK trade deal was imminent, this week finally could be the week.

 


BY EMILIO CASALICCHIO AND BARBARA MOENS

November 30, 2020 9:50 pm

https://www.politico.eu/article/five-signs-this-is-the-real-brexit-crunch-and-four-that-it-isnt/

 

LONDON — Brexit-watchers are used to "crunch" weeks coming to nothing.

 

Most weeks since the European Council summit in October — which the U.K. insisted was a deadline, before it wasn't — have been tipped as the week a deal could be done. But still negotiations continue.

 

This week, however, could be different. There are numerous signs suggesting a deal could come together in the next few days, and a feeling among observers that things are finally getting serious.

 

POLITICO has rounded up some of the indications that this could be the week ... plus a few that suggest this saga will roll on once again.

 

1. Both sides are pointing to this week

Politicians and officials on both sides say things are coming to a head. "I do think that this is a very significant week," Dominic Raab told the BBC at the weekend. "The last real major week subject to any further postponement, in terms of the timing."

 

Numerous EU figures have flagged this week as the one to watch, arguing the ratification process becomes complicated otherwise. Getting a deal approved by national and regional parliaments — which would be needed if the EU determines the final deal is a so-called "mixed agreement" — is no longer possible. But even ratification by the U.K. and European Parliaments plus sign-off by EU countries — the process if its scope is judged to only cover competences assigned to Brussels — is becoming increasingly difficult.

 

2. An actual deadline looms

There's just one month to go until the Brexit transition period ends. The deadline for the end of talks can be put off but cannot end up in 2021 without the two sides falling off a cliff edge and tariffs kicking in.

 

Britain will be out of the single market and customs union on January 1 and negotiations after its departure could be a different ball game. Both sides want to avoid the imposition of tariffs. So ratification claims aside, something needs to happen before December 31, and time is running short.

 

3. The timetable has gone out the window

Talks are at such a crunch stage that the formal agenda for what will be discussed has been scrapped, with both sides taking each day as it comes, a U.K. official told POLITICO's London Playbook.

 

When formal negotiating rounds began, timetables were made public, showing exactly what would be discussed and when. That feels like a long time ago now. Talks also stretched late into the night on Sunday, Downing Street confirmed.

 

4. An offer on fish

The row over fish is finally getting a little more light as well as heat. Last week, RTE's Tony Connelly reported that the EU was offering that up to 18 percent of the fish quota in U.K. waters currently allocated to EU27 fleets be restored to the U.K.

 

Brussels quickly insisted it was one of a number of ideas floating around and a U.K. official dismissed it as "derisory." The British fishing industry agreed that the alleged offer was nowhere near good enough, but saw hope in the move. "The gesture, if true, is significant because it indicates a movement away from the very inflexible negotiating mandate they set for themselves," said Barrie Deas, chief executive of the National Federation of Fishermen's Organizations.

 

Meanwhile, Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney on Monday began debating who should have right of access to fish based on where they originate and live — a public indication that the EU might be willing to base quota decisions on so-called "zonal attachment." That's a core demand from the U.K., which allocates quotas based on where fish stocks live instead of starting from baselines set out in historical agreements. EU officials have accepted this position behind the scenes for months, but the public comments suggest the rubber is hitting the road in the negotiating room.

 

The EU dismisses the suggestion, alluded to in London, that fish is the real sticking point, and instead insists the so-called "level playing field" rules designed to ensure British business can't undercut the bloc while retaining access to the EU market are the crucial element. This difference in emphasis between the two sides on the real sticking points suggests both sides may be preparing to compromise.

 

5. Business pressure

Firms on both sides are getting extra nervous and piling the pressure on politicians to come up with solutions. The less time there is between a deal and the end of the transition, the less time companies have to prepare for changes.

 

BusinessEurope last week issued a cry for help, arguing in a statement that, after the coronavirus shock, nations "cannot afford another major disruption caused by a no-deal situation," and adding: "It is time to conclude an agreement."

 

On the U.K. side, firms have been tearing their hair out about the lack of information about the future, while business leaders have urged the EU to phase in its border controls to ease the end of the transition.

 

Meanwhile, the war of words between the U.K. and the haulage industry appears to have been put aside, as all involved knuckle down to make the necessary preparations for January. One haulage representative said Cabinet Office Minister Michael Gove was listening to concerns more than in recent months.

 

But but but ...

We've been here so many times before and there is a fair chance this week will turn out like all the others and not produce a deal. Here are four arguments for another dead-end.

 

1. A no-deal could shake things up

If the two sides fail to reach a deal, World Trade Organization rules kick in and tariffs are required for goods crossing borders. But trade talks could continue in the hope a better solution could be found.

 

Some on the Brussels side think a rupture might focus minds in London. “When they gather the size of the disruption, they will start knocking on our door soon enough,” one EU official said. “The logic of international trade negotiations is relatively simple: size matters.”

 

London has suggested in the past that it won't return to talks immediately after a no-deal exit.

 

2. No-one wants to blink first

Both sides think running the clock down will put greater pressure on the other to cave first — but neither wants to be the one to walk away from the table.

 

Taken to its limits, that could mean a no-deal exit almost by accident. “We might end up sleepwalking toward the end of the transition period,” the same EU official said.

 

3. EU countries want to step up no-deal preparations

EU countries are increasing pressure on the European Commission to boost its no-deal preparation by publishing contingency measures.

 

“We’re staying at the table as long as meaningful, but we should really allow no-deal preparations in parallel,” an EU diplomat said. Cautious of being seen to undermine the trade talks, the Commission continues to hold off on those plans but it remains to be seen how long they can ignore the pressure coming from different capitals.

 

However, German Chancellor Angel Merkel cautioned against contingency planning. "I would wait with it as long as it is possible," she told a videoconference with European affairs lawmakers from different national parliaments and the European Parliament. "Instead, we should put all our energy into the final stage of the negotiations.”

 

 4. There is still a month to go.

A month is still a month. While the EU is mulling its options to get around the ratification issue, talks could go down to the wire. One EU diplomat said there could be a "tricky, technical" solution found to allow the bloc to ratify the deal after the transition ends.

 

If that's possible, the clock can continue to tick down. All parties lie about the deadlines in trade deals, and the talks have already gone on longer than the two sides said they could. Surely they could be squeezed a little further.

 

Hans Joachim Von Der Burchard and Shawn Pogatchnik contributed reporting.


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