Biden turns to familiar faces to grapple with a
changed world
The next president's national security team will
contain a wealth of experience, but few surprises.
By NAHAL
TOOSI
11/23/2020
05:13 PM EST
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/23/biden-national-security-picks-familiar-439774
If
President-elect Joe Biden’s emerging national security team looks awfully
familiar, that’s because it is — with most of the names announced so far those
of people who held senior jobs in the Barack Obama administration.
But the
world they’ll inherit has changed significantly, often for the worse, since
they were last in power. President Donald Trump and his aides are making
last-minute moves designed to reduced their successors’ room to maneuver. And
the incoming Biden team’s hands may be tied further if Republicans keep control
of the Senate, assuming they can even get confirmed.
So although
much of the foreign policy establishment is expressing relief that Biden has
picked a group of pros with deep experience, many also wonder how much and what
exactly the new crew can really get done once it’s back in charge.
“You have
people who are competent, but from competence to policy there’s always a leap,”
said Gérard Araud, a former French ambassador to the United States. “Are they
going to simply manage the status quo? Are they going to go back — to rewind?
Or are they going to be creative — to have an America that’s more cooperative,
less imperial?”
On Monday,
the Biden transition team unveiled the names of several key members of the
president-elect’s national security roster, with few surprises.
For
secretary of State, Biden has selected Antony Blinken, a longtime aide who held
senior foreign policy posts during the Barack Obama years. Another Obama-era
pick close to Biden, Jake Sullivan, will be national security adviser, a job
that does not require Senate confirmation. Linda Thomas-Greenfield, a veteran
diplomat who was an assistant secretary of State in the Obama years, will be
nominated as ambassador to the United Nations.
Other
former Obama vets named on Monday: Avril Haines as director of national
intelligence; Alejandro Mayorkas as Homeland Security secretary; and John Kerry
as a special envoy focused on climate change.
Trump has
yet to concede the Nov. 3 election, but he and his aides already are taking
steps to entrench their policy decisions in ways that could be tough if not impossible
for the new team to reverse.
Trump is
reducing U.S. troop levels in Afghanistan, even as the Taliban and the Afghan
government are still engaged in peace talks. He is imposing new sanctions on
Iran, which could make it more complicated for Biden to fulfill his promise to
the rejoin the nuclear deal Obama struck with Tehran.
Trump aides
also are planning new sanctions and other measures to constrain China, a rival
Biden must both deal with and counter. They are further considering designating
Houthi rebels in Yemen as terrorists, a move that could make it harder for the
United States to help end the conflict in that country.
Last week,
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited Israel, where he announced that the
United States will consider the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions movement to
be anti-Semitic and that it will allow products from certain Israeli
settlements to be labeled as “Made in Israel.” The decisions were just the
latest of numerous blows Trump has dealt to the Palestinians, imperiling the
goal of a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which Biden
supports. And Pompeo suggested more pro-Israel moves were coming.
“There’s
every reason to expect that the direction of travel for U.S. policy with
respect to Israel will continue,” the outgoing diplomat — who has yet to
acknowledge there will be no second Trump term — told The Jerusalem Post.
Biden
allies say many of the Trump administration’s attempts to salt the earth are
easily reversible. But they concede that there could be political costs to
trying to undo some of the moves.
For
instance: The Trump administration has labeled Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary
Guard Corps a terrorist organization. That decision is one of many by the Trump
team aimed at permanently killing the Iran nuclear deal. But for Biden to
declare he’s reversing that designation could also lead to an outcry in
Congress, including among hawkish members of his own Democratic Party.
Some
Washington figures argue that Biden should build on Trump’s efforts instead of
wholesale rejecting them, and he likely will to some extent.
Mark
Dubowitz of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a think tank deeply
opposed to the Islamist regime in Tehran, said Biden should use the fact that
Trump has imposed so many sanctions on Iran as leverage to force that
government to agree to a tougher nuclear deal.
“I worry
that the political constraints of the Democratic Party and the theological
nature of the adherence to the [Iran deal] may prevent them from doing what
they otherwise would do as pragmatic and highly competent national security
professionals,” Dubowitz said of Biden’s team. The selections have received
praise from many in the Washington and beyond.
Some
progressives, whose movement has pushed Biden to decrease defense spending,
reduce American troop deployments and work more with Congress on foreign
policy, gave cautious approvals on Blinken in particular. They noted that he
was willing to listen to them during the campaign.
“Tony has
at least gone out of his way and established a relationship and rapport with
progressives,” said Yasmine Taeb, a senior fellow with the Center for
International Policy, a progressive think tank. “Even if we don’t necessarily
see eye to eye or necessarily agree, the respect he’s afforded … goes a long
way.”
Michael
Singh, a former George W. Bush administration official with expertise in the
Middle East, wrote of Blinken, Sullivan and Flournoy: “All are highly
qualified, work well across the aisle, and are just plain good people.” (Singh
is an adviser to WestExec, the consulting firm co-founded by Blinken and
Flournoy.)
Foreign
officials say that, when it comes to the changes the world has experienced in
the years since Obama, perhaps the most consequential is the growing feud
between United States and China.
Many, in
private conversations, say Biden should not reflexively reject the Trump
administration’s efforts, through sanctions, tariffs and other means, to hold
China accountable on everything from religious oppression to trade malpractice.
Biden and
his aides, including Blinken, have indicated they are well aware that the
U.S.-Chinese relationship is in a new phase. They insist, however, that they
saw it coming even under Obama. They also have said that while they will be
tough on China, they will be more strategic than Trump.
For one
thing, they say they will coordinate with allies and work through multilateral
institutions when feasible to counter Beijing. Trump has expressed disdain for
many of America’s allies, including by imposing tariffs on them, and has taken
steps to leave or otherwise weaken a number of multilateral bodies.
Biden’s
pick for U.S. Trade Representative could send a message about how he plans to
repair economic ties with allies chastened by Trump’s trade wars, while staying
tough on China.
One figure
some lawmakers say could fulfill that role is Katherine Tai, the head trade
lawyer for the House Ways and Means Committee. Backers hope Tai, a former China
enforcement head at USTR who is fluent in Mandarin, can help challenge Beijing
on issues like forced labor and intellectual property rights while preserving a
functioning trade relationship between the world’s two largest economies.
“She is
uniquely prepared to tackle issues on China and knows how to partner with our
allies to advance U.S. interests,” Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown told POLITICO.
Foreign
officials expect that, at least early on, Biden will focus more on domestic
challenges, including a U.S. economy battered by the coronavirus pandemic. But
they hope and expect that Biden will use international levers to address those
issues when he can, even if it’s something as relatively simple as resuming
U.S. membership in the World Health Organization, which Trump quit.
Their
expectations of how much Biden can accomplish on foreign policy are tempered,
however, by the deep partisan divisions that persist in U.S. society.
Foreign
diplomats are well aware that if Republicans keep the Senate, they can cause
headaches for Biden on everything from the Iran deal to refusing to confirm his
picks for his national security team to investigations of his son’s business
dealings.
There’s
also the possibility that a Republican, maybe even Trump if he runs again,
could win the White House back in 2024. Given the Trump-infused populism into
the GOP, that could lead to another wild swing in U.S. foreign policy, some
analysts added.
“Let’s not
look that far,” one foreign diplomat pleaded when asked about 2024.
The
diplomat argued that, given Trump’s predilection for abruptly changing his
mind, and being out of sync with the rest of his administration, it will be
refreshing if Biden’s team offers “stability over the course of one
administration.”
“They’ll
work through institutions — that’s the main point,” the diplomat said. “At
least we’re going to go back to the way things were done.”
Gavin Bade contributed.
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