Von der
Leyen, Meloni and the battle for Brussels’ top jobs: What’s next?
EU leaders
scramble to sign off on top jobs package at a summit next week.
The party of
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is getting greedy — and it
could have major repercussions for her and for the continent. |
JUNE 21,
2024 5:50 AM CET
BY BARBARA
MOENS AND JACOPO BARIGAZZI
BRUSSELS —
Seconds out, Round 2!
EU leaders
this week failed to agree on who should fill the EU’s top jobs. Next week,
they’ll try again. But the party of European Commission President Ursula von
der Leyen is getting greedy — and it could have major repercussions for her and
for the continent.
So what’s
next for von der Leyen and where do Europe’s big hitters stand? POLITICO has
the answers to some of the biggest questions about the big top jobs carve-up.
Will Ursula
von der Leyen get EU leaders’ blessing next week?
Von der
Leyen’s first hoop to jump through — getting the sign-off from EU leaders — is
not a done deal yet. Her center-right European People’s Party, also the winners
of the European election, raised the stakes by demanding a bigger slice of the
top jobs cake after their victory. At a summit on Monday, the EPP pushed to
split the five-year term of the European Council president with the socialists.
The hubris
of the conservatives has irked the socialists, the second biggest group in the
European Parliament.
“The EPP has
lit a fire that they are no longer in control over,” said one EU official who,
like others quoted in this piece, was granted anonymity to discuss the EU’s top
leadership. “If they continue this bullying, [Charles] Michel’s biggest dream
to tackle Ursula will become a reality” — a reference to the European Council
president’s plans to thwart von der Leyen’s second-term ambitions.
So far, von
der Leyen remains the clear front-runner to stay on. While other names, such as
Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenković and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos
Mitsotakis, were floated before the election, no one considers them as real
alternatives, especially as they would also have to find support in the
European Parliament.
The next
step for the EU’s top brass is to double down on behind-the-scenes negotiations
to lock in von der Leyen at the EU leaders’ meeting next week in Brussels.
“No one is
telling us: ‘you are fucked,’” an EPP official close to von der Leyen said.
But it’s not
that straightforward. The longer it takes to find support for the current top
jobs package — von der Leyen at the Commission, Portugal’s António Costa as
European Council president, Malta’s Roberta Metsola as the European Parliament
boss and Estonia’s Kaja Kallas as foreign policy chief — the more it risks
being undermined. Another EU official quipped that “if you’re being fucked over
in politics, you usually don’t get a polite warning beforehand.”
What does
Giorgia Meloni really want?
Then there
is Italian Prime Minister Meloni, who is part of the hard-right European
Conservatives and Reformists group in the EU Parliament. She has been firing
warning shots that she’s not happy about being excluded from the top jobs
negotiations involving the coalition partners — EPP, socialists and liberals.
“If I have
to talk on behalf of [Brothers of Italy] I have to tell you that for now, for
us, it’s impossible to vote in favor of Ursula von der Leyen or all the others,
because we don’t know the political agenda,” said Nicola Procaccini, an
European lawmaker from Meloni’s Brothers of Italy.
Meloni has
pointed out that her group is currently the third biggest in the 720-seat
European Parliament, inching ahead of the liberals for that spot.
“When we
were at the European Council, some arrived with proposals for the top jobs
without even reflecting on what the indications of voters were and the change
in step on priorities,” Meloni said on Wednesday. “I think those trying to do
this deal tried to rush because they realize that it could be a fragile
agreement.”
As ECR will
not be part of the coalition supporting von der Leyen, the top negotiators from
the three centrist parties don’t see why it should take part in the backroom
consultations.
In terms of
demands, Meloni is keeping her cards close to her chest, five EU diplomats
said.
She has her
eyes on a top economic portfolio for Rome in the next Commission, along with an
executive vice-president or vice-president title for ECR. One of the top names
floated for such a job is Raffaele Fitto, the current Italian EU minister. A
moderate, Fitto is seen as a bridge between parties since he left Silvio
Berlusconi’s Forza Italia, a member of the EPP, in 2015, to join the ECR. His
departure from government also would not lead to a reshuffle of Meloni’s
Cabinet.
Elisabetta
Belloni, the current head of Italian intelligence who organized the G7 meeting
last week, is another name circulating in Rome and Brussels for the EU’s chief
diplomat role. In the current top jobs package, that job is set to go to
Estonian Prime Minister Kallas.
Officials
stressed the chances of Belloni getting that role seem slim as Meloni appears
more interested in an economic portfolio and it is important that someone from
the eastern part of the bloc gets one of the EU’s top jobs.
Why does
everyone care so much about Meloni?
Technically,
von der Leyen doesn’t need the support of all EU leaders. She can sail through
with the backing of a majority of them and without the support of the Italian
prime minister.
However, “I
don’t see a new Commission president coming into office without the support of
the Italian prime minister,” said Sophia Russack, a researcher at the Centre
for European Policy Studies, a think tank.
Meloni, the
leader of the bloc’s third-largest economy, is one of the few European leaders
who came out of the European election strengthened.
“You can’t
just keep ignoring Meloni,” said another EU diplomat, who warned that things
could quickly escalate if no one reaches out to Rome.
Another EU
official stressed that “there is no such thing as a boycott against Meloni” on
the part of the negotiators from the EPP, socialists and liberals. “There is no
intention of including ECR in the coalition. But there is respect for Meloni’s
role in the European Council.”
Is there
enough to keep the East happy?
The current
package would give a top job to a candidate from one of the Eastern EU
countries (Estonia’s Kallas), whose political weight has become more important
since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Poland also
has clout in the negotiations. Prime Minister Donald Tusk is the only EPP
leader of a big European country and came out stronger from the European
election. His foreign minister, Radosław Sikorski, has snubbed a potential role
as EU defense commissioner because it doesn’t have enough weight.
Warsaw is
instead said to be eyeing a bigger portfolio, such as enlargement, while other
Central and Eastern European nations are hoping to secure the transport
portfolio, seeing it as key for them to increase trade volumes with the rest of
the bloc.
What are the
next steps?
The three
main political groups’ lead negotiators are in constant talks about locking in
the current top jobs package when EU leaders meet next week. Ahead of that
meeting, the negotiators have penciled in a video call, two officials briefed
on the negotiations said.
Then the
ball will be in the court of the European Parliament, which is set to vote on
the next European Commission president in mid-July. This scenario avoids a
summer of political uncertainty at the EU’s highest level while Russia
continues to wage war in Ukraine and with a looming U.S. election in November,
diplomats stressed.
Will von der
Leyen get through the European Parliament?
The European
Parliament, the second hoop for von der Leyen to jump through, is also still
far from a done deal. The coalition of the EPP, socialists and liberals risks
being too small to get von der Leyen the required 361 votes (out of 720), as
some experts reckon about 10 percent of MEPs within those ranks are unlikely to
vote for her. That coalition has about 400 MEPs. The EPP’s recent “greedy and
arrogant behavior” could lead to more leakage of votes from the socialists,
another EU official said.
In the
European Parliament, it’s one strike and you’re out. If von der Leyen fails,
it’s up to the European Council to suggest an alternative candidate to become
European Commission president. That risks leading to an institutional crisis,
diplomats warned.
“It’s a high
gamble” if von der Leyen fails, said Russack. “It would be quite damaging for
the reputation of the EU institutions and it will delay things terribly … then
the whole shebang starts from scratch.”
One diplomat
suggested if von der Leyen’s appointment is not approved, the rest of the top
jobs puzzle could be in jeopardy. The gender and nationality of an alternate
candidate might throw off the current balance that von der Leyen strikes with
Costa and Kallas.
“It would be
hard to replace her with another female EPP member from Northern Europe,” said
one diplomat. “Depending on who is proposed as a replacement, everyone else
might also have to be reshuffled.”
When does
this end?
If EU
leaders approve the top jobs package next week and the European Parliament
backs von der Leyen in mid-July, the new European Commission is set to be
installed around November 1.
If EU
leaders fail to agree on a package next week, they are set to meet again for an
extra European Council in the summer (and if necessary, another one, and
another one). The next opportunity to vote on the future leader of the EU’s
executive in the European Parliament is not until September (if there is no
consensus in July), which would also delay the start of the next European
Commission.
Hannah
Roberts contributed reporting from Rome. Eddy Wax, Nicholas Vinocur and Sarah
Wheaton contributed reporting from Brussels.
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