IMAGE BY OVOODOCORVO
Von der
Leyen feels the squeeze as EU liberals implode
The
Commission president needs Renew group’s support for a new term — but the
faction is shedding seats.
JUNE 24,
2024 4:01 AM CET
BY EDDY WAX
AND HANNE COKELAERE
BRUSSELS —
Ursula von der Leyen’s path to victory just got narrower.
Days before
a make-or-break meeting at which EU leaders will decide on her future, Renew
Europe, one of the three parties that von der Leyen hopes will back her for a
second term as European Commission president, is hemorrhaging seats in the
European Parliament.
“The simple
math … makes this very tight for von der Leyen at the moment,” said Jacob
Moroza-Rasmussen, a former secretary general of the pan-European liberal party
ALDE.
A surprise
decision Friday by Czech populist Andrej Babiš to pull his seven MEPs out of
Renew capped a miserable EU election period for the liberals, who have
plummeted from 102 seats to just 74. Renew, which was the third-largest group
in the Parliament, has been overtaken by the hard-right European Conservatives
and Reformists (ECR), home of Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy.
If any more
symbolism about the trajectory of the liberals was needed, one of their
heavy-hitters — Mark Rutte, Dutch prime minister for the past 14 years — will
attend his final European Council this week before taking up his new post as
secretary-general of NATO.
Von der
Leyen and her European People’s Party have so far only engaged in talks with
the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) and Renew, officially ignoring both the
Greens and the ECR, despite saying ahead of the election she would be open to
working with Meloni.
Both the
liberals — with Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas — and the Socialists — with
former Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa — would get big EU jobs if the
EU leadership package of which von der Leyen is part emerges unscathed from the
leaders’ summit on Thursday and Friday.
But even
that won’t be the end of the uncertainty for von der Leyen.
She will
need 361 votes in the Parliament (out of 720) in a secret ballot that could be
held as soon as July 18. Adding up all the EPP, S&D and Renew members of
the Parliament gets her to 398. But not everyone in the EPP and S&D will
back her, and Renew is shedding members.
“We are
confident about getting a deal through at the European Council,” said an EPP
official granted anonymity to speak freely about the mood in the party. “The
European Parliament was always going to be a challenge.”
If EU
leaders feel that von der Leyen won’t make it through the Parliament, they can
buy time by nominating her but push the vote by MEPs from July to September —
as happened in 2009 when José Manuel Barroso was re-elected as Commission
president.
“The EPP are
really pivotal here,” said Simon Hix, a professor of comparative politics at
the European University Institute in Florence. “But that said, it’s going to be
very difficult for them to piece together a stable majority.”
Nonetheless,
there are no real alternatives to von der Leyen, Hix argued, saying that
offering Meloni an important vice presidency portfolio for Italy in the
Commission could secure von der Leyen the support of Meloni’s 24 MEPs.
The
Socialists and Renew are far weaker than the EPP around the European Council
table, but still necessary in the Parliament. The Socialists have repeatedly
warned that their support will not be guaranteed if von der Leyen does a deal
with Meloni or any other forces to the right of the EPP.
“It’s going
to be a very delicate balancing act that she’ll have to play,” said Hix.
Going Green?
With the
majority narrowing, the Greens are making it increasingly clear that they want
to be let into the coalition talks.
“Anyone who
wants stable majorities can negotiate with us Greens. We are ready,” German
Green Rasmus Andresen wrote on X after Babiš announced he was quitting Renew.
But even the
Greens, who have around 50 seats, might not be enough to get von der Leyen over
the line in Parliament — and opening up to them would likely lose her support
within her own EPP group.
“Even if she
expands with the Greens there is a risk that she doesn’t have the numbers now,”
ex-ALDE Secretary General Moroza-Rasmussen said, adding that the weakening of
the center parties will also drive up the price that Meloni will seek to
extract from her.
While
Babiš’s MEPs could not have been relied upon to back von der Leyen anyway —
having taken aim at the European Green Deal and the bloc’s migration policy —
the decision to leave Renew could nonetheless impact the mindset around the
European Council table this week.
“[It
matters] because [of] what it does psychologically because now ECR for sure is
bigger than Renew. That means they will become a little bit more hardline,”
Moroza-Rasmussen said.
“It’s in no
one’s interest that there’s a mess,” a person with knowledge of the
negotiations said after EU leaders’ inconclusive dinner on June 17.
“In the end,
there are no other names really on the table.”
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