Is Macron too toxic to win?
Even his allies don’t want the French president’s face
on their posters or his voice on the radio.
JUNE 12,
2024 4:00 AM CET
BY CLEA
CAULCUTT, VICTOR GOURY-LAFFONT, SARAH PAILLOU AND PAULINE DE SAINT REMY
PARIS — Outside France, President Emmanuel Macron
epitomizes the polished, self-assured European statesman. Inside France, he’s
increasingly seen as a liability.
In the wake
of Macron’s bombshell decision to call a snap election after losing badly in
the European Parliament contest, the French president’s allies fear he could
lead them to disaster.
“You won’t
see Macron’s face on my campaign posters, I can tell you that,” said a member
of parliament belonging to the French president’s coalition. “The Élysée Palace
hasn’t really understood the ‘anti-president’ mood in France,” said an official
with Macron’s Renaissance parliamentary group, who, like others in this story
was granted anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter.
Polls show
the French see their president as disdainful and authoritarian, and a lightning
rod for anti-elite feelings that have been swirling in the wake of numerous
crises, such as the Yellow Vest revolt and the Covid pandemic, that hit France
in recent years. His reluctance to change course in the face of widespread
protests over pension reform last year reinforced the view that he is aloof and
out of touch, while his tone can come across as arrogant and elitist.
On Sunday,
that backlash crystallized at the ballot box. The far-right National Rally
finished first in the European Parliament election in France with 31.4 percent
of the vote — more than double the 14.6 percent received by Macron’s party. A
survey conducted on the day of voting showed nearly half of voters had one key
aim: to “express their dissatisfaction with Emmanuel Macron and the
government.”
In response
to the defeat, Macron shocked Europe by dissolving the French parliament and
calling fresh national elections to seize the initiative and silence the far
right. The vote threatens not only to upend the French government but to blow
up European politics at a critical time, with Russia’s war in Ukraine now deep
into its third year.
But not
only is Macron not wanted on the campaign trail for his own Renaissance party,
he’s also increasingly seen as a loose cannon, with accusations swirling that
the president is out of touch and deluded about his appeal.
While
Macron sees a snap election as the only way to turn back the far-right tide and
rally mainstream voters of all sides behind him, the fear within his own camp
is that the opposite could happen.
“If the
president puts himself forward, it’s a huge risk,” said Mathieu Gallard, a
research analyst at Ipsos. “What’s certain is that if he gets involved, he will
mobilize people against him.”
Early
polling shows Macron’s party could once more take a beating as voters head back
to polls for the two-round parliamentary election on June 30 and July 7. A real
prospect is emerging that the presidential coalition could even be relegated to
being the third force in French politics, behind the far right and potentially
the left.
For many
allies and former supporters, Macron’s extraordinary self-belief is now turning
into a denial of reality that’s making him blind to the antipathy he generates.
While it is
common for French presidents to lose their appeal, he has been blamed for
mishandling a succession of crises. |
The
decision to go back to the polls is “the delirious act of a man who is knocked
out by defeat,” said one former Elysée staffer.
The
tensions within the coalition backing Macron are such that heavyweights are
calling on the French president to take a step back. François Bayrou, a key
ally and one of Macron’s earliest supporters, was at the Élysée Palace on
Monday evening to send the message that Macron “mustn’t get too involved in the
campaign,” according to a centrist lawmaker. Bayrou has even discussed a
necessary “de-Macronization” with his MPs, according to the lawmaker, who, like
others quoted here, was granted anonymity to speak candidly.
“The more
he talks, the more we lose points [in the polls],” said an adviser to an MP
from Macron’s Renaissance party.
This is an
unprecedented change in party dynamics for Renaissance. The French president’s
party, which emerged with him, has long been dismissed as a mere echo chamber
for Macron, which would not exist without him.
While it is
common for French presidents to lose their appeal, he has been blamed for
mishandling a succession of crises, some of which were of his own government’s
making. Last year’s pension protests, in which hundreds of thousands took to
the streets to oppose raising the retirement age, failed to move him. Macron
effectively ignored those voices, using a constitutional backdoor to pass the
law without a vote in parliament.
He’s also
seen widely as a president for the rich rather than a man drawn from the French
people to lead them. He was an investment banker before entering politics and
some of his policies on tax cuts have stoked the view that he’s primarily
concerned with helping big business billionaires such as Bernard Arnault, the
boss of LVMH, the world’s largest luxury goods company and one of the richest
people on the planet.
There’s
also a problem with his presentational style. Macron’s eloquence sometimes
doesn’t work in his favor, often causing him to appear didactic, professorial
or patronizing.
Macron’s dangerous gamble
Despite his
party’s fears, Macron has his own plans for the snap election campaign. On
Wednesday, he is expected to deliver a major speech to set the tone for his
battle with the far right. According to several French outlets, the president
plans to saturate the media with three appearances per week.
While the
presidency is not up for grabs in the election, Macron’s credibility is.
Nevertheless, he has brushed aside suggestions that he could quit if his party
crashes to another humiliating defeat.
“I’m going
[into the fight] to win,” he told Figaro Magazine on Monday.
The risk is
clear: The president was heavily involved in the European election campaign
which just finished with a disastrous result for his party.
“Renaissance
scored catastrophically despite the president and his Prime Minister Gabriel
Attal’s strong involvement in the campaign,” said Gallard from Ipsos. “Their
involvement wasn’t enough to mobilize their voter base, but the stakes are
higher this time around with the plausibility of a [National Rally] government
for the first time,” he said.
Macron has
often enjoyed taking risks during his political career, whether it’s
confronting hostility or making announcements that haven’t been completely
finalized. His rise to power, from lowly adviser to economy minister and then
president, is a tale of good luck and well-timed gambles.
But Macron
has now suffered two election defeats in a row — in parliamentary elections in
2022 and again on Sunday — and is now facing another.
According to several French outlets, the president
plans to saturate the media with three appearances per week. |
“Emmanuel
Macron has lost the aura he had in 2017” when he was first elected, said
Gallard, “and we can clearly see that he’s struggling to communicate where he
is leading the country,” he continued.
From self-belief to self-delusion?
The French
president went into the European election off the back of D-Day commemorations
alongside Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy and U.S. President Joe Biden.
“Intoxicated by his own presence” on the international stage, “the anti-climax
[of the results] hit him hard,” said the same former Elysée staffer.
Macron
explained his own decision with defiance. “France needs a clear majority in
serenity and harmony. To be French, at heart, is about choosing to write
history, not being driven by it,” he said as he announced he was dissolving the
National Assembly.
So what happens if he loses?
The
far-right National Rally would become the leading force in France’s National
Assembly for the first time. Macron’s presidential coalition would be
neck-and-neck with the left-wing bloc. Dozens of his MPs could lose their
seats.
“We are
being thrown under the bus,” said one party adviser, “for a mistake that
belongs to him.”
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