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NEWS
ANALYSIS
Israel’s Strike Was Smaller Than Expected, and So
Was Iran’s Reaction
The relatively limited scope of the attack, as well as
a muted response from Iranian officials, may have lowered the chances of an
immediate escalation, analysts said.
Patrick
Kingsley
By Patrick
Kingsley
Reporting
from Jerusalem
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/19/world/middleeast/iran-response-israel-strikes.html
April 19,
2024
Updated
11:27 a.m. ET
The
relatively limited scope of Israel’s overnight strikes on Iran, and a subdued
response from Iranian officials, may have lowered the chances of an immediate
escalation in fighting between the two countries, analysts said Friday.
For days,
there have been fears that a forceful Israeli response to Iran’s attack on
southern Israel last weekend could prompt an even more aggressive riposte from
Iran, potentially turning a tit-for-tat confrontation into a wider war. Foreign
leaders advised Israel to treat its successful defense against Iran’s missile
barrage as a victory that required no retaliation, warning against a
counterattack that might further destabilize the region.
But when it
finally came early on Friday, Israel’s strike appeared less damaging than
expected, allowing Iranian officials and state-run news outlets to downplay its
significance, at least at first. In public, no Iranian official blamed Israel
for the strike, even if in private several acknowledged Israel’s hand.
Iranian
officials said that no enemy aircraft had been detected in Iranian airspace and
that the main attack — on a military base in central Iran — had been initiated
by small unmanned drones that were likely launched from inside Iranian
territory. The nature of the attack even had precedent: Israel used similar
methods in an attack on a military facility in Isfahan early last year.
By sunrise,
Iranian state-run news outlets were projecting a swift return to normality,
broadcasting footage of calm street scenes, while officials publicly dismissed
the impact of the attack. Airports were also reopened, after a brief overnight
closure.
Analysts
cautioned that any outcome was still possible. But the initial Iranian reaction
suggested that Iran’s leaders would not rush to respond, despite warning in
recent days that they would react forcefully and swiftly to any Israeli strike.
“The way
they present it to their own people, and the fact that the skies are open
already, allows them to decide not to respond,” said Sima Shine, a former head
of research for the Mossad, Israel’s foreign intelligence agency, and an Iran
expert.
But, she
added, “We have made so many evaluation mistakes that I am very hesitant to say
it definitively.”
In a
miscalculation that set off the current round of violence, Israel struck an
Iranian embassy compound in Syria on April 1, killing seven Iranian officials
including three senior commanders.
For years,
Israel had mounted similar attacks on Iranian interests in Syria as well as
Iran, without provoking a direct response from Iran. But the scale of the
attack appeared to change Iran’s tolerance, with Iranian leaders warning that
it would no longer accept Israeli strikes on Iranian interests anywhere in the
region. Early on April 14, Iran fired more than 300 missiles and drones at
Israel, causing little damage but shocking Israelis with the scale of the
attack.
Even if
Iran does not respond in a similar way to Israel’s latest strike on Friday, it
could still react forcefully to future Israeli attacks on Iranian assets in
Syria and elsewhere in the Middle East, Ms. Shine said.
That
possibility became more pressing early on Friday, after the Syrian authorities
said that Israel had again struck a site in Syria, at roughly the same time as
its attack on Iran.
Israel did
not claim responsibility for the strike, in line with its policy of not
commenting on such attacks. But if the attack harmed Iranian interests, and if
Iran attributes the attack to Israel, it remains unclear how Tehran will
respond.
“The
question is whether they will stand by their red line,” Ms. Shine said. “But
what exactly is the red line? Is it only high ranking people? Is it only
embassies? Or is it every Iranian target in Syria?”
Johnatan
Reiss and Rawan Sheikh Ahmad contributed reporting.
Patrick
Kingsley is The Times’s Jerusalem bureau chief, leading coverage of Israel,
Gaza and the West Bank. More about Patrick Kingsley
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