The Coming
Collapse of China is a book by Gordon G. Chang, published in 2001, in which he
argued for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to be the root cause of many of
the China's problems and would cause the country's collapse in the near future.
His book also made specific forecasts on the year that the party would collapse
since Chang insisted that it would occur by 2011. When 2011 was almost over,
Chang admitted that his prediction was wrong but said it was off by only a
year.
On 29 December 2011, Chang asserted
in the Foreign Policy magazine, "Instead of 2011, the mighty Communist
Party of China will fall in 2012. Bet on it." Consequently he made the
magazine's "10 worst predictions of the year" twice when his
prediction proved wrong again.
In the
introduction of his first edition published in 2001, Gordon G. Chang, an
American lawyer, predicted the following scenario:
The end of
the modern Chinese state is near. The People's Republic has five years, perhaps
ten, before it falls. This book tells why.
Based on
the perceived inefficiency of state-run enterprises and the inability of the
Chinese Communist Party to build an open democratic society, Chang argued that
the hidden non-performing loans of the "Big Four" Chinese state banks
would likely bring down China's financial system and its communist government,
along with the entire country. He prediced specifically that the party would
collapse by 2011.
Reception
Dexter
Roberts of Bloomberg Businessweek described the book as "Pessimism on a
grand scale."
In 2002,
Julia Lovell of The Observer noted that although China's entry to the World
Trade Organization could provide Western investors with many new opportunities,
Chang's book "marshalled ample evidence to dampen such
expectations."[6] In 2001, Patrick Tyler of The New York Times wrote:
As Chang
discovered, China is a nation of contradictions. Many of its state industries
are virtually bankrupt; its banking system sits on a mountain of unrecognized
bad debts; its agriculture is primitive; pollution is out of control; and
government interference and corruption are killing off a number of new business
ventures...
— The New York Times, September 9, 2001
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