Climate monitoring and research could fall victim to coronavirus, scientists fear

Climate monitoring and research could fall victim to coronavirus, scientists fear

Health restrictions have already hit some long-term projects but routine monitoring could be affected if the pandemic drags on

Oliver Milman

 @olliemilman

Fri 3 Apr 2020 10.00 BSTLast modified on Fri 3 Apr 2020 10.26 BST

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/apr/03/climate-monitoring-research-coronavirus-scientists

The coronavirus pandemic has stalled scientific fieldwork and may even start to affect the monitoring of the climate, scientists have warned.

Major projects to gather environmental data have been postponed or canceled over concerns that teams of researchers working together will spread the Covid-19 virus.

The crisis has so far mainly stymied long-term studies, but concerns have been raised that routine monitoring of weather and the climate crisis may be affected if the pandemic drags on for an extended period.

Petteri Taalas, secretary general of World Meteorological Organization, said: “The impacts of climate change and growing amount of weather-related disasters continue.

“The Covid-19 pandemic poses an additional challenge, and may exacerbate multi-hazard risks at a single-country level. Therefore it is essential that governments pay attention to their national early warning and weather-observing capacities despite the Covid-19 crisis.”

Wealthy countries that have deployed land- and ocean-based instruments, as well as satellites, to gauge temperature changes and other readings mostly have done so with fully or partly automated systems.

This means that data will continue to flow without much hands-on human input but should the pandemic stretch out for many more weeks then missed repairs and replacements of instruments will become an “increasing concern”, according to the WMO.

Furthermore, in many developing countries measurements are routinely taken manually by scientists in the field and there are indications this work has dropped off.

A huge slump in air travel since the start of the pandemic has dented the collection of ambient temperature and wind speed taken in-flight by sensors fitted to commercial airliners through an initiative called the Aircraft Meteorological Data Relay program. A coalition of national weather services across Europe are discussing how to compensate for the decrease in the 700,000 climate observations normally provided per day by aircraft.

In the US, a swath of climate research work has been called off or delayed. Nasa-led missions to survey the loss of land in the Mississippi River delta and hurricane recovery in Puerto Rico have been suspended. With all flights to and from Greenland suspended, a project to collect cores from the country’s vast ice sheet has been voided for the year.

Nasa has asked staff to work remotely where possible, with a spokesman telling the Guardian that the agency has a continuity plan to ensure that there is “no interruption of climate-relevant data”.

A five-year Nasa project to study the impact of severe thunderstorms that enter the stratosphere is now mired in uncertainty. Researchers from several universities have partnered with Nasa to use its high-altitude ER-2 aircraft to take measurements this summer but this work is now on hold.

“Because of the delays we haven’t started tests yet and it’s not clear if we are going to be able to do that,” said Kenneth Bowman, a climate scientist at Texas A&M University, who is working on the project. “We don’t really know the timings, we are taking it week to week. It’s always frustrating having all of your plans disrupted, not knowing when we will do what we want to do.”

Bowman said routine climate monitoring is “robust” and that he would be surprised if the pandemic disrupted this work unless it spooled out for many months or years.

Gabriel Vecchi, a climate modeler at Princeton University, said while he was concerned about the impact of the pandemic on data collection he was “quite heartened” that observations of the Earth’s surface have continued unabated so far.

“We should all be grateful for the people and organizations that are continuing these essential forecast and monitoring operations, in spite of the severe challenges they are facing,” he said.

If the pandemic lingers then climate scientists will face challenges shared by some other professions – meetings of teams will have to be reorientated, the maintenance of equipment will somehow have to be done and trips to research sites will be curtailed.

This is occurring at a time when air pollution, as well as planet-heating gases, has declined considerably in China and Europe due to a reduction in human activity.

“For the most part these polluted areas have snuck up on people and they have become the norm and when the public realize it doesn’t have to be that way, I can imagine considerable pressures to not let it go back to how it was,” said Kevin Trenberth, a veteran climate scientist.

“I can imagine that commuting from home may become a lot more common as we move ahead, to the advantage of the climate system and fossil fuel use, and to everyone.”

Coronavirus: Wuhan residents told to stay inside and be vigilant

Coronavirus: Wuhan residents told to stay inside and be vigilant

China announces day of mourning for ‘martyrs’ as city at centre of outbreak seeks to avoid second wave before travel bans lift

Helen Davidson

 @heldavidson  Email

Fri 3 Apr 2020 04.50 BSTLast modified on Fri 3 Apr 2020 05.48 BST

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/03/coronavirus-wuhan-residents-told-to-stay-inside-and-be-vigilant

Residents of Wuhan have been warned to stay indoors and strengthen protection measures, a few days before travel restrictions on the city at the centre of the pandemic are scheduled to be lifted.

The city’s top official urged vigilance as authorities sought to ward off a second wave of infection from incoming travellers, while also easing some of its stringent containment measures.

China has reported more than 81,600 cases of the virus since the outbreak began, including 3,322 deaths, but the level of transparency around the figures has been questioned. Until this week China’s national health commission was not including people who tested positive but showed no symptoms in its tally. On Friday it reported 31 new confirmed cases, including two locally transmitted infections. Four people died, all of them in Wuhan.

While the number of daily cases has dropped dramatically since February, Wang Zhonglin, Wuhan’s Communist party chief, said the risk of a rebound in the city’s epidemic remained high due to both internal and external risks and it must continue to maintain prevention and control measures.

Wuhan has eased restrictions over recent weeks and authorities have said curbs on travel will lift on 8 April, for those with the green “health code”.

China will hold national mourning on Saturday for 14 “martyrs” who died while responding to the pandemic. National and foreign embassies and consulates will fly flags at half mast and all public entertainment will stop. At 10am there will be three minutes’ silence.

Li Wenliang is among the 14 health workers and police declared to be “martyrs” for their efforts. The Chinese doctor was reprimanded by authorities for “spreading rumours” after he sought to warn colleagues about the emergence of Covid-19 in December, but in March an investigation into his death exonerated Li and recommended the reprimand be withdrawn.

The pandemic has reached new heights across the world – in particular in the US where authorities have reported nearly 240,000 infections and 5,798 deaths, according to the Johns Hopkins university tracker.

More than a million people have been diagnosed with Covid-19 and more than 51,400 people have died.

Donald Trump has ordered defence forces to start making ventilators, after weeks of resisting calls to broadly implement the Defence Production Act. The president has blamed the states for a lack of medical supplies, saying they should have stockpiled and the federal government was “a back-up, not an ordering clerk”.

New York is said to be at risk of running out of ventilators in less than a week. The governor, Andrew Cuomo, has been among many state leaders saying they were desperate for assistance and complaining that states have to bid against each other and federal agencies just to secure supplies. US authorities were expected to release new guidelines on the wearing of masks, amid conflicting recommendations and policies between different countries.

In other developments around the world:

Italy remained the country worst affected with 13,915 fatalities, followed by Spain with 10,003 deaths. The US was the third worst affected country with 5,316 total deaths.

The World Health Organization said Middle Eastern governments needed to act fast on limiting the spread of the virus after cases nearly doubled in a week to almost 60,000.

Half the world’s planes have gone into storage with international seat capacity falling by almost 80% from a year ago. The data suggested the aviation industry may take years to recover.

British Airways suspended 30,000 staff and London’s Heathrow airport said it would shut down one of its two runways from Monday. Cathay Pacific will ground most of its fleet after a huge fall in passenger numbers.

Hong Kong ordered pubs and bars to close for two weeks from Friday night with anyone violating the law facing six months in jail and thousands of dollars in fines.

The Zaandam cruise liner, on which four people died, finally docked in Fort Lauderdale after official wrangling over whether to let it in. Dozens of those on board were sick with flu-like symptoms.

Britain’s National Health Service was preparing to open its first field hospital in London on Friday and was setting up another four temporary hospitals to treat coronavirus patients.

More than 6.65 million people filed for unemployment benefits in the US last week.

Australia’s chief medical officer said global cases could be as high as five to 10 million. Brendan Murphy said he was not confident of numbers coming out of the US.

The coronavirus pandemic is making Earth shake less

The coronavirus pandemic is making Earth shake less

Global containment measures to combat the spread of the coronavirus have seemingly made the world much quieter. Scientists are noticing it, too.

There's an unlikely beneficiary of coronavirus: The planet

Harmeet Kaur

By Harmeet Kaur, CNN

Updated 0033 GMT (0833 HKT) April 3, 2020

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/02/world/coronavirus-earth-seismic-noise-scn-trnd/index.html?utm_source=fbCNNi&utm_term=link&utm_medium=social&utm_content=2020-04-03T04%3A01%3A29&fbclid=IwAR3ejVaLeCmbRtz0G35JCn_fBcoaMs8wSdDpM7ScBvxAfOA4F17qgqlC-Tk

(CNN)Once-crowded city streets are now empty. Highway traffic has slowed to a minimum. And fewer and fewer people can be found milling about outside.

Global containment measures to combat the spread of the coronavirus have seemingly made the world much quieter. Scientists are noticing it, too.

There's an unlikely beneficiary of coronavirus: The planet

Around the world, seismologists are observing a lot less ambient seismic noise -- meaning, the vibrations generated by cars, trains, buses and people going about their daily lives. And in the absence of that noise, Earth's upper crust is moving just a little less.

Thomas Lecocq, a geologist and seismologist at the Royal Observatory in Belgium, first pointed out this phenomenon in Brussels.

Brussels is seeing about a 30% to 50% reduction in ambient seismic noise since mid-March, around the time the country started implementing school and business closures and other social distancing measures, according to Lecocq. That noise level is on par with what seismologists would see on Christmas Day, he said.

Less noise means seismologists can detect smaller events

The reduction in noise has had a particularly interesting effect in Brussels: Lecocq and other seismologists are able to detect smaller earthquakes and other seismic events that certain seismic stations wouldn't have registered.

Take, for example, the seismic station in Brussels. In normal times, Lecocq said, it's "basically useless."

Seismic stations are typically set up outside urban areas, because the reduced human noise makes it easier to pick up on subtle vibrations in the ground. The one in Brussels, however, was built more than a century ago and the city has since expanded around it.

The daily hum of city life means that the station in Brussels wouldn't typically pick up on smaller seismic events. Seismologists would instead rely on a separate borehole station, which uses a pipe deep in the ground to monitor seismic activity.

"But for the moment, because of the city's quietness, it's almost as good as the one on the bottom," Lecocq said.

Seismologists in other cities are seeing similar effects in their own cities.

Paula Koelemeijer posted a graph on Twitter showing how noise in West London has been affected, with drops in the period after schools and social venues in the United Kingdom closed and again after a government lockdown was announced.

Paula Koelemeijer

@seismo_koel

How the seismic noise on our little @raspishake seismometer running in West London (Twickenham) has been affected by the #covid19UK lockdown. This is a month of data for station R091F. The average noise levels are down reflecting fewer trains, buses and cars.

Still, seismologists say the reduction in noise is a sobering reminder of a virus that has sickened more than one million people, killed tens of thousands and brought the normal rhythms of life to a halt.

It shows people are heeding lockdown rules

Lecocq said the graphs charting human noise are evidence that people are listening to authorities' warnings to stay inside and minimize outside activity as much as possible.

"From the seismological point of view, we can motivate people to say, 'OK look, people. You feel like you're alone at home, but we can tell you that everyone is home. Everyone is doing the same. Everyone is respecting the rules,'" he said.

The data can also be used to identify where containment measures might not be as effective, said Raphael De Plaen, a postdoctoral researcher at Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México.

"That could be used in the future by decision makers to figure out, 'OK, we're not doing things right. We need to work on that and make sure that people respect that because this is in the interest of everyone.'"

Is a global debt crisis coming? | CNBC Explains

Total worldwide debt is expected to continue growing over the coming months, despite

having just climbed to a fresh all-time high. Given the three previous waves of
global debt accumulation have all ended with financial crises, CNBC’s Sam
Meredith takes a look at the risks associated with the latest build-up.

UN delays global climate talks amid coronavirus crisis / Cop26 climate talks in Glasgow postponed until 2021

UN delays global climate talks amid coronavirus crisis

November’s COP26 talks in Glasgow will be pushed back.

By KALINA OROSCHAKOFF AND ZACK COLMAN 4/1/20, 9:49 PM CET Updated 4/1/20, 10:42 PM CET

https://www.politico.eu/article/cop26-climate-summit-postponed/

Global climate talks scheduled for November will be delayed in response to the coronavirus pandemic, the U.N. and the British and Italian governments said Wednesday evening.

"The world is currently facing an unprecedented global challenge and countries are rightly focusing their efforts on saving lives and fighting COVID-19. That is why we have decided to reschedule COP26," said Alok Sharma, the president-designate of the climate talks and the U.K.'s secretary of state for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy.

The two co-hosts, Italy and the U.K., are dealing with the full force of the pandemic; as of Wednesday evening 13,155 had died in Italy and 2,352 in the U.K.

The U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change COP26 meeting planned for Glasgow in Scotland had been viewed as a key political deadline for countries to release new, more ambitious national plans to combat planet-warming gases. That has now been put on hold as countries struggle to arrest the spread of the deadly virus.

"COVID-19 is the most urgent threat facing humanity today, but we cannot forget that climate change is the biggest threat facing humanity over the long term," said U.N. Climate Change Executive Secretary Patricia Espinosa.

Most countries are far behind in meeting the national commitments they made as part of the 2015 Paris climate agreement, the first global pact of countries to address climate change. The Glasgow conference was designed to ratchet up pressure on nations to reach those marks while simultaneously setting more ambitious goals.

The U.N said that "Dates for a rescheduled conference in 2021, hosted in Glasgow by the UK in partnership with Italy, will be set out in due course following further discussion with parties."

An intermediate meeting in Bonn, Germany,  will be shifted from June to October 4-13. The U.N. "will review the feasibility of this date by 4 August at the latest," said a note seen by POLITICO.

As the coronavirus rattled countries around the world, it became clear that governments would be too stretched to focus on climate goals amid immediate public health and economic concerns.

Laurence Tubiana, the architect of the Paris agreement, called postponement "the right thing to do" and suggested nations consider climate outcomes in their eventual economic recovery plans.

"The UK Presidency and all Governments should use this time to design resilient recovery and transition plans that consider climate, biodiversity, development and social justice in an integrated way," she said in a statement. "This crisis has shown that international cooperation and solidarity are essential to protect global well-being and peace."

Cop26 climate talks in Glasgow postponed until 2021

Crucial UN conference will be delayed until next year as a result of the coronavirus crisis

Jillian Ambrose and Fiona Harvey

Wed 1 Apr 2020 21.20 BSTFirst published on Wed 1 Apr 2020 19.14 BST

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/apr/01/uk-likely-to-postpone-cop26-un-climate-talks-glasgow-coronavirus

The UN climate talks due to be held in Glasgow later this year have been postponed as governments around the world struggle to halt the spread of coronavirus.

The most important climate negotiations since the Paris agreement in 2015 were scheduled to take place this November to put countries back on track to avoid climate breakdown. They will now be pushed back to 2021.

A statement from the UN on Wednesday night confirmed that the meeting of over 26,000 attendees would be delayed until next year. It said new dates for the conference would be decided in due course.

The UK energy minister and president of the Cop26 conference, Alok Sharma, held crunch talks with the UN and several other countries on Wednesday evening to confirm the timing of the summit. “The world is currently facing an unprecedented global challenge and countries are rightly focusing their efforts on saving lives and fighting Covid-19. That is why we have decided to reschedule Cop26,” he said.

“We will continue working tirelessly with our partners to deliver the ambition needed to tackle the climate crisis and I look forward to agreeing a new date for the conference.”

The Cop26 meeting was scheduled to be held in Glasgow at the SEC arena, a venue that the Scottish government plans to turn into a field hospital to treat virus victims.

The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change agreed to delay the vital talks because of the widespread disruption caused by coronavirus, and will also delay a key preliminary meeting scheduled for Bonn, Germany, which was also expected to be derailed by widespread lockdowns and travel restrictions.

John Sauven, executive director of Greenpeace UK, said it was vital that the delay should not allow governments to back down on their commitments to tackle the climate crisis. “The decision to postpone the climate talks in Glasgow was inevitable given the health emergency the world is currently facing,” he told the Guardian. “But while the summit has been delayed, the climate emergency can’t be put on hold. Government stimulus packages will hold the key as to whether this emergency significantly delays or advances progress on tackling the climate emergency.”

Some campaigners believe there could be another advantage to delay, as the US presidential elections take place this November, just before Cop26 was scheduled to begin. With the summit delayed to next year, other governments will have time to adjust either to a second term of Donald Trump – who opposes the Paris agreement and is withdrawing the US from it – or a new president who is likely to support climate action.

But several prominent climate experts had feared that delaying the talks would mean governments eased off on pursuing stronger commitments to fulfil the Paris goals.

Christiana Figueres, the UN climate chief who oversaw the Paris summit in 2015, had argued for keeping Glasgow on track. On Wednesday night she accepted the delay but added: “Emissions must peak this year if we want to limit warming to 1.5C and the Paris agreement set the Cop26 summit as the moment when all countries would ramp up their targets in line with the steep emissions decline we need to see in this decisive next decade.”

The Institutional Investors Group on Climate Change (IIGCC) welcomed the delay as the best hope of rebuilding diplomatic momentum before the talks take place. Stephanie Pfeifer, the group’s CEO, said investors would support the decision because it “improves the likelihood of a strong outcome and ensuring that the world is put on a path to tackle the climate crisis”.

But the delay will come as a blow to some climate campaigners, who have urged the UK government to proceed with the conference despite the outbreak to avoid stalling progress on global climate action. They believe since the Paris agreement, countries have failed to develop climate commitments that go far enough to avoid a catastrophic environmental breakdown. The Glasgow talks aim to galvanise tougher plans to cap rising temperatures by limiting greenhouse gas emissions.

Asian countries face possible second wave of coronavirus infections / Brazil confirms first indigenous case of coronavirus in Amazon

Asian countries face possible second wave of coronavirus infections

Daily numbers of confirmed cases rising again as people rush home to beat border closures

Helen Davidson

 @heldavidson  Email

Thu 2 Apr 2020 08.44 BSTLast modified on Thu 2 Apr 2020 09.14 BST

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/02/asian-countries-face-possible-second-wave-of-coronavirus-infections

Asian countries that started to feel tentative hope that their responses to the coronavirus pandemic were bearing fruit are now facing possible second waves, brought by a rush of panicked people racing home to beat border closures and quarantine orders.

As daily numbers of confirmed cases start to rise again, and new evidence of asymptomatic cases spark fear of unwitting community transmission, many have now brought in far stricter measures.

Jason Kindrachuk, assistant professor and Canada research chair at Manitoba University’s department of medical microbiology & infectious diseases, said it was hard to know how daily life could return to normal until there was a vaccine and until governments know what the immunity levels are across the population.

“The concern with this virus … is how to reduce social distancing measures and enforcement in such a way that you don’t reignite transmission chains for the virus and find yourself back at square one with trying to get things contained,” he said.

One of the first affected by the virus, Hong Kong had already closed schools and some buildings and parks but never enacted a full lockdown.

It has now banned foreign arrivals, closed venues and restricted gatherings, strengthened testing, opened quarantine centres, and handed out jail sentences for non-compliance. Tracking bracelets ensure people mandatorily isolating don’t leave their homes.

Prof Ben Cowling, an epidemiologist at Hong Kong University’s school of public health, said that while Hong Kong could claim to have prevented an epidemic so far, there was still a risk of one with incoming travellers.

Hong Kong never saw more than 11 cases confirmed in a day during the early stages of the outbreak. After thousands of people flew home the number is now regularly above 50, and the city’s health system is strained.

Taiwan’s response to the pandemic is considered one of the world’s most successful. It maintains a ban on foreign entrants, and with its infection rate still low – around 330 cases – is more focused on a spat with the World Health Organization.

Singapore is also considered to be an example of best practice but is facing a potential second wave. Amid warnings of growing community “complacency”, all four of Singapore’s deaths and more than 60% of its 1,000 or so confirmed cases have been in the past three weeks.

Singapore has introduced fines and jail terms for breaching stay-at-home orders, banned all international short-term visitors and transits, cancelled mass gatherings, and closed venues, places of worship and educational institutions.

This week it announced all long term pass-holders needed approval before entering the country, and cancelled the passport of a citizen who flouted stay-at-home orders.

Japan’s daily case reports grew slowly over January and February, not reaching more than 50 until last month. While it has held off a major outbreak, Tokyo has become a concern, reporting record high case numbers for four consecutive days in late March.

The country’s social distancing and lockdown measures appear far more lax than its neighbours and there has been accusations of under-testing and speculation the number of infected people is far higher than reported.

South Korea was once one of the worst outbreak sites, but after implementing aggressive contact tracing, quarantining and isolation, it appeared to get control. Amid fears of a second wave, however, some health experts are calling for the country to extend its entry ban, currently one of the most lax in the region.

In mainland China the initial outbreak, which killed thousands, has slowed but there remains concern over people who returned home from abroad and foreigners, all of whom have been banned from entering, including those with residency visas. Restrictions have been lifted in Hubei but across the country people’s movements are policed by a colour-coded health app.

This week authorities imposed lockdown on a Chinese county of 600,000 after a woman is thought to have contracted the virus from asymptomatic doctors at a hospital.

A study in the Lancet Public Health Journal said the extreme restrictions on Wuhan helped control the outbreak, and lifting them now could see a second wave by August.

Dozens of new cases are reported daily in mainland China, almost all imported. However, there are accusations of coverups, and it was not until this week that Chinese health authorities included asymptomatic people who tested positive – estimated to be 18-31% of cases – among its reported number.

China’s national health commission said that as of Tuesday, 20,000 people were under observation as possible silent carriers, and the president, Xi Jinping, on a visit to Zhejiang, called for more focus on asymptomatic cases.

Brazil confirms first indigenous case of coronavirus in Amazon

Positive test for 20-year-old woman from Kokama tribe comes amid fears virus could devastate remote communities

Bill and Melinda Gates FoundationAbout this content

Reuters

Thu 2 Apr 2020 01.51 BST

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/apr/02/brazil-confirms-first-indigenous-case-of-coronavirus-in-amazon

An indigenous woman in a village deep in the Amazon rainforest has contracted the novel coronavirus, the first case reported among Brazil’s more than 300 tribes, the Health Ministry’s indigenous health service Sesai has said.

The 20-year-old from the Kokama tribe tested positive for the virus in the district of Santo Antonio do Iá, near the border with Colombia, 880km (550 miles) up the Amazon river from the state capital Manaus, Sesai said in a statement on Wednesday.

Four cases of coronavirus have been confirmed in the same district, including a doctor who tested positive last week, raising fears the epidemic could spread to remote and vulnerable indigenous communities with devastating effect.

Sesai said the woman was a medical worker who had been in contact with the doctor. She was the only person to test positive among 15 health workers and 12 patients tested after the doctor was found to have the virus, Sesai said. Their names were not made public.

The doctor had returned from vacation in southern Brazil to work with the Tikunas, one of the largest tribes in the Amazon with more than 30,000 people who live in the upper Amazon near the borders with Colombia and Peru.

The woman has not shown symptoms of Covid-19 and has been isolated with her family, Sesai said.

Health experts warn that the spreading virus could be lethal for Brazil’s 850,000 indigenous people, who have been decimated for centuries by diseases brought by Europeans, from smallpox and malaria to the flu.

They fear indigenous peoples’ way of life in communal hamlets under large thatched structures increases the risk of contagion if any single member contracts the virus.

Financial help for airlines 'should come with strict climate conditions'

“While all of our minds are rightly focused on the need to protect ourselves and our communities against the serious health threat of COVID-19 and its wider economic impacts, the climate and nature emergencies have not gone away and are quietly getting worse. Indeed, aviation sector carbon emissions are increasing globally, and airports are a major contributor to local air and noise pollution, risking public health.

Any bailouts that are granted must be used to address these challenges together, and avoid exacerbating them.

Therefore any support packages for airline companies must set conditions to protect workers’ rights, prevent public money from being diverted into the pockets of shareholders, and reorientate the industry towards helping to meet the Paris climate agreement. Demand reduction measures should be implemented gradually over time to bring the sector within safe limits for the climate.”

Financial help for airlines 'should come with strict climate conditions'

Former EU climate chief Miguel Arias Cañete fears end of Covid-19 will bring higher carbon emissions

“We are not flying as much – why not keep not flying?” asked Kevin Anderson, professor of energy and climate change at Manchester University. “Why not reinforce the good things that are coming out of Covid-19?”

Fiona Harvey Environment correspondent

Wed 1 Apr 2020 11.00 BSTLast modified on Wed 1 Apr 2020 13.43 BST

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/apr/01/financial-help-for-airlines-should-come-with-strict-climate-conditions

Financial help from taxpayers to airlines hit by the coronavirus crisis must come with strict conditions on their future climate impact, the former EU climate commissioner and a group of green campaigners have said.

“It must be conditional, otherwise when we recover we will see the same or higher levels of carbon dioxide [from flying],” said Miguel Arias Cañete, the EU climate commissioner who led the bloc to the Paris agreement, in an interview with the Guardian. “We know the level of emissions we have to commit to [under Paris]. They [airlines] are worried about survival and will need lots of support, lots of liquidity – that gives them a big responsibility.”

A group of 26 civil society groups in the UK have written to the chancellor, Rishi Sunak, demanding “stringent conditions” on any rescue, including strict targets on greenhouse gases in line with the Paris agreement and measures to help workers. “Public money must be used to address social and environmental priorities, as well as economic needs,” they wrote.

Aviation has all but ceased in some countries and flights are vastly down in most others, owing to the lockdowns and other suppression measures. Airlines have been appealing to governments for bailouts as fleets have been grounded.

But campaigners and experts fear that after the Covid-19 outbreak has waned, the sector could bounce back with the aid of public money and send emissions soaring.

In their letter to the chancellor, the campaigners – including Greenpeace, Flight Free, the IPPR and New Economics Foundation thinktanks, and Tax Justice – call for the government to take equity stakes in airlines rather than handing out cash or loans. They want to see social benefits with workers’ rights enforced, including a living wage and no mass redundancies a condition of any rescue. In the longer term, they want to see support for a “just transition” for workers to move to jobs in lower carbon industries.

They also want a new fiscal regime that includes a frequent flyer levy or air miles levy, replacing air passenger duty, which would reduce demand without removing access to flights from those with limited alternatives or limited resources, by shifting the tax burden to frequent leisure flyers. About half of people in the UK do not fly in any given year, but 1% of people take a fifth of all flights.

Rebecca Newsom, head of political affairs at Greenpeace UK, said: “Emergency funding must be used to tackle emergencies, not to support business as usual. Conditions are needed to protect workers’ rights, prevent public money from being diverted into the pockets of shareholders, and reduce demand gradually over time through a frequent flier levy, so that the sector operates within safe limits for the climate.”

Attaching conditions to any bailout could take several forms. Cañete wants to see a carbon tax or emissions trading system such as the one operating under the EU. “Market mechanisms are needed,” he said.

Airlines UK, a trade body, said the industry was already taking steps to reduce their environmental impact before the coronavirus crisis hit. “The UK aviation sector has already committed to achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050 – the only national aviation industry to do so,” said a spokesperson. “This will be achieved via a range of measures, including airspace modernisation, the development and commercialisation of sustainable aviation fuels, new cleaner planes, and the UN carbon offsetting scheme Corsia.”

Airlines face difficult choices ahead. More efficient aircraft will help to reduce emissions, but the impact will be limited. Biofuels offer a possible answer, but they are still expensive and there are difficulties in ensuring that the sources are environmentally sustainable. Electric planes are still some way in the future, and solar-powered flight a distant dream.

“We need to stimulate research and development into things like hydrogen fuel,” said Barbara Buchner, managing director of the Climate Policy Initiative. “We need more proactive thinking from airlines – they can’t imagine we will go back to the way they were before.”

The coronavirus disruption may also bring about permanent changes in people’s habits, some experts hope. Business flying has stopped meetings from happening, but people have found ways to work with video conferencing and other cheap technology, forcing businesses to question whether their staff need to fly as much in future.

 “We are not flying as much – why not keep not flying?” asked Kevin Anderson, professor of energy and climate change at Manchester University. “Why not reinforce the good things that are coming out of Covid-19?”

One effect of the coronavirus crisis has yet to be felt. Under the Corsia (Carbon offsetting and reduction scheme for international aviation) system adopted by the International Civil Aviation Organisation, airlines would have to curb their future emissions using efficiencies, alternative fuels and offsetting, such as investing in forests, renewable energy or other carbon-cutting projects.

Before the coronavirus crisis emerged, airlines pushed for the average emissions in the years 2019 and 2020 to be used as the baseline by which future emissions would be judged. In any years from 2021 onwards, when emissions from the sector exceed the average of 2019 and 2020, the difference between actual emissions and the baseline will have to be offset, meaning airlines will have to buy carbon credits from carbon-cutting projects.

Choosing 2019 and 2020 should have made those targets easy to meet for airlines if air travel had continued to rise this year as it has in recent years. With the Covid-19 pandemic, however, the disruption to travel means emissions are likely to be drastically lower than envisaged for 2020 – meaning Corsia’s future carbon targets will be much tougher for them to reach, if the scheme goes ahead without changes.