French
riots lay bare risks and opportunities for 2027 election candidates
POLITICO
looks at the strategic calculus for Le Pen, Mélenchon, Philippe and Glucksmann.
Police
officers stand near a fire during an unauthorized demonstration marked by riots
and clashes with law enforcement at Place de la Republique in Paris on October
18, 2026. | Gauthier Bedrignans/Hans Lucas/AFP via Getty Images
October
20, 2026 4:00 am CET
By Clea Caulcutt, Marion Solletty and Sofiane Zaizoune
PARIS —
Looting and rioting across France over the weekend are threatening to reshape
the contours of the French presidential race.
Far-right
frontrunner Marine Le Pen is seizing on the crisis to cast herself as the
candidate of law and order, but there are risks for her too. Many voters see
her as a highly divisive leader whose 2027 victory would only deepen the
societal fault lines exposed by the riots.
Far-left
firebrand Jean-Luc Mélenchon, widely tipped to challenge Le Pen in the second
round next year, is also treading carefully as rivals accuse him of encouraging
the rage on the streets that has morphed into pillaging and arson.
For the
flailing centrists, there is now an opportunity to finally make an impression
in the contest — but only if they can distance themselves from President
Emmanuel Macron, who is seen as fluffing his response to the nationwide wave of
vandalism.
Overall,
it’s pushing the election into uncharted waters.
“If
there’s a real crisis, you don’t know where it could lead,” said one
conservative who holds regular talks with officials from the far-right National
Rally and was granted anonymity to discuss the subject.
Where
does that leave the candidates? POLITICO takes a look at the strategic calculus
for the leading runners across the political spectrum.
Marine Le
Pen, on the up
Le Pen is
receiving an immediate boost. Even her rivals admit it.
This
Saturday’s unrest “benefits the far right,” said center-right European Member
of Parliament Nathalie Loiseau. “They are circling around the violence like
vultures,” she said in an interview.
Le Pen
has already cast herself as the alternative president, delivering a sober
address to the nation Sunday and pitching herself as the candidate of a “pacified
France.”
Jordan
Bardella, president of her National Rally party, upped the ante on the protests
and pitched his party as the only one able to restore order, dialing up fears
about the pillaging. The rioters “will soon be breaking into people’s homes,”
he said at a press conference in Paris. “The authorities are collapsing.”
But
excessive, prolonged chaos could backfire on a party long seen as instigating
civil unrest. And the topic is already becoming a talking point inside the
National Rally.
Far-right party Rassemblement National candidate in
France’s 2027 presidential election Marine Le Pen holds a press conference on
the sidelines of a meeting of Patriots parliamentary group on the eve of an EU
Summit in Brussels on October 14, 2026. | Nicolas Tucat/AFP via Getty Images
“Some say
that this shows that there will be riots if the National Rally comes to power,”
said Charles-Henri Gallois, one of Bardella’s advisors. “But I don’t believe
it.”
According
to the conservative quoted above, periods of instability can lead the French to
turn their backs on anti-establishment figures and prefer traditional veterans.
“You
could end up with [Charles] De Gaulle on the Champs-Élysées,” the official
said, referring to how the first president of the Fifth Republic emerged with
extra powers after the 1958 crisis that roiled the nation.
Jean-Luc
Mélenchon, on the defensive
Far-left
leader Mélenchon is in a bind as he walks a tightrope between supporting
protesters and distancing himself from violence.
The
France Unbowed party supported the school protests in the run-up to last
weekend’s riots, and far-left elected officials have played a prominent role in
the blockades, either in decrying alleged police violence or in support of the
protesters.
In the
battle for leadership between Mélenchon and center-left MEP Raphaël Glucksmann,
the former grabbed the limelight.
Jean-Luc Melenchon, during the October 17 demonstration in
Paris on October 17, 2026. | Augustin Pasquini/Hans Lucas/AFP via Getty Images
But the
violence this weekend could end up marginalizing the far left, especially with
the government and political rivals accusing them of fueling the unrest. “They
tried to aggravate the situation,” Loiseau said.
According
to a poll from Cluster 17 for POLITICO, the 75-year-old
far-left firebrand is already one of the most commonly “rejected” politicians in
France.
On
Monday, Mélenchon tried to turn the tables, firing back at the government,
saying the prime minister was fomenting “disorder” with his
accusations that ultra-left groups were trying to disrupt the election.
Edouard
Philippe, looking for a reset
For the
center-right presidential hopeful Philippe, the riots aren’t good news either.
He has to work hard to distance himself from his old boss, President Emmanuel
Macron, who is seen as failing to respond sufficiently to the crisis. (Philippe
was Macron’s first prime minister.)
But the
protests could also be his opportunity to show some character, and rebut
critics who think his campaign lacks energy and panache. Philippe, the
best-placed centrist candidate to beat the far-right, has seen his poll ratings
stall in recent months and has struggled to cut through the campaign noise.
Edouard Philippe gives a speech during a meeting between the
Alliance for General News Press and several presidential candidates in Paris on
October 14, 2026. | Dimitar Dilkoff/AFP via Getty Images
A break
with Macron might just be what he needs.
Philippe
came out hard against the president after he failed to announce any measures
during his primetime television address Sunday. “I would have preferred…
decisions and initiatives to restore order,” he wrote online. “This country
needs someone in command.”
But the
former PM will need to stick his neck out more if he’s going to make an impact.
“He’s
very presidential, and it’s a posture that suits him,” said one of Macron’s
ministers, who, like others cited here, was granted anonymity to speak
candidly.
“But he’s
not saying anything. What’s his measure? Why doesn’t he say we need to call a
state of emergency? “
Raphaël
Glucksmann, on the offensive
For the
MEP Raphaël Glucksmann, the protests are a trial by fire after he won the
Socialist Party primary contest earlier this month and became the center-left’s
presidential candidate.
On
Monday, Glucksmann tried to strike a very different note from Mélenchon, telling
reporters that “it’s unbearable … that hordes of looters should attack
symbols of the state.”
Raphaël Glucksmann, Member of the European Parliament,
co-chair of Place publique, and winner of the left-wing primary for the 2027
presidential election, speaking after his victory during the first-round
results night at the Solaris in Paris on October 11, 2026. | Benjamin
Vodant/Hans Lucas/AFP via Getty Images
Sensing a
chink in the far-left leader’s armor, he accused the leader of France Unbowed
of being “a springboard” for Le Pen, who would be “the beneficiary of the
chaos.”
Glucksmann
has seen his poll ratings go up since he won the Socialist Party primary
outright, reaching 15% to 16.5% according to a recent Elabe poll — in a similar territory to Mélenchon
and Philippe.
But the
minister quoted above expected Glucksmann to peak soon.
“He can
only take voters away from Mélenchon,” the minister said. “A left-wing voter
may vote for the right, but a right-wing voter won’t vote for the left anytime
soon,” the person said.
Emmanuel
Macron, on the skids
Macron is
being roasted for going on television to address the nation and announce …
absolutely nothing.
On
Sunday, Macron promised that rioters
who “destroyed” things would have to pay the price and called for “clear
answers” on why the protests turned violent.
“Fucking
hell, it’s rubbish,” said one former senior government official.
Macron
has cultivated an image of being above the fray and went on a trip to the
Middle East on Monday. But his failure to respond to the violence risks
damaging his final months in power. “It’s out of touch,” a regional official
said.
According
to the minister quoted above, Macron should have let his prime minister do the
talking but instead was encouraged to make “a speech to calm” the situation.
On
Monday, Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu tried to get a grip on the situation,
announcing localized curfews, movement restrictions, and bans on public
demonstrations.
But
another day of demonstrations has already been announced for next Saturday,
sparking fears the protests will snowball into sustained protests similar to
the Yellow Vests movement in 2018 and 2019.
If so,
this chaos will be a defining element of the 2027 campaign.
.jpeg)
.jpeg)
Sem comentários:
Enviar um comentário