JUNE 10, 2024: Von der Leyen aims for a second term but still needs a deal

 

Von der Leyen aims for a second term but still needs a deal

 

European Commission presidency is hanging in the balance after EU election.

 

Ursula von der Leyen is scrambling for a political deal that keeps her at the European Commission's helm for the next five years. |

 

JUNE 10, 2024 4:54 AM CET

BY STUART LAU, BARBARA MOENS, EDDY WAX AND ELISA BRAUN

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-european-election-results-2024-ursula-von-der-leyen-second-term-political-deal-european-commission-conservatives/

 

BRUSSELS — Ursula von der Leyen is scrambling for a political deal that keeps her at the European Commission’s helm for the next five years, with her conservatives set to win the EU elections.

 

Amid a rise in support for the far right, von der Leyen’s European People’s Party was on track to secure the most seats of any single group in the Parliament, with vote-counting still ongoing, putting her in a strong position to retain the top job.

 

At stake is not only the leadership of the European Union’s executive arm but the bloc’s political stability as far-right parties advance and disrupt the EU’s power centers at a critical time. With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in its third year, the EU is on the brink of a trade war with China and faces losing a vital economic and security ally if Donald Trump wins the U.S. election in November.

 

If in the days and weeks ahead EU leaders agree to nominate von der Leyen for a second term, she will still need the support of 361 MEPs in the newly elected Parliament. That will involve striking alliances with other parties on the center, left or even — potentially — further to the right.

 

She said Sunday night that she would first seek support from the socialists and the liberals, who backed her for her first term.

 

But she will likely need to reach beyond these groups to secure the support she requires. That could involve some precarious choices: She could seek backing from the Greens but would then likely alienate some of her own EPP conservatives who object to key Green Deal climate measures.

 

If she opts to continue courting the hard right European Conservatives and Reformists grouping, led by Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, von der Leyen risks putting off the socialists and liberals.

 

The center and left are likely to be particularly sensitive to any alliance with hardline right-wingers after the far-right stunned centrist leaders in France and Germany and made substantial gains in many other major EU economies in the election.

 

Von der Leyen stressed on Sunday that “the center is holding.” Given that the extremes on the left and the right have gained support, she added: “The result comes with great responsibility for the parties in the center.”

 

On paper, the numbers so far work in her favor. Altogether, these three groups — the EPP, Socialists & Democrats and Renew — are now set to add up to 407 seats in the European Parliament, according to updated figures. She only needs 361 votes to get her nomination approved.

 

However, not all the EPP lawmakers will back her, including most prominently the French EPP politicians who see her as a loyalist not to the political family, but to their rival French President Emmanuel Macron.

 

Experts and party officials assume that more than 10 percent of the lawmakers in each of the three centrist groups — including her own EPP — will either oppose her or abstain.

 

Backroom deals

Frantic backroom horse-trading is likely to get underway in earnest as the dust settles on the election result. Von der Leyen will have an opportunity to put her case directly to the German, French and Italian leaders at the G7 summit starting in Italy on Thursday.

 

EU leaders will meet next Monday in Brussels, followed by another summit at the end of this month to hammer out agreements on the top jobs in the European institutions, including the presidencies of the Parliament and the European Council. Von der Leyen’s pitch will be as a safe pair of hands amid political and security turmoil.

 

It’s also not just the parliamentary numbers that will determine von der Leyen’s fate.

 

It remains unclear who the 27 national leaders in the European Council will back as their preferred choice for the top job. Despite being the biggest political grouping in Parliament, the EPP is represented by only 12 of those leaders — and none of them are from traditional powerhouses such as Germany, France, Italy or Spain.

 

A senior official from French President Emmanuel Macron’s Renew group, speaking on Sunday, floated the idea of replacing von der Leyen with European Parliament President Roberta Metsola, who’s also from the EPP.

 

“Many MEPs campaigned against her [von der Leyen],” the official said, whereas Metsola is “liked by everyone.”

 

Socialists’ lead candidate Nicolas Schmit, on the other hand, signaled his group’s willingness to work with von der Leyen on finding a majority.

 

There is “no possibility for us social democrats to have cooperation with those who want to dismantle, who want to weaken this Europe we have built [for] several decades,” said Schmit, who’s also part of von der Leyen’s first term Commission.