Spanish
election threatens to blow up Brussels’ political balance
Socialists
warn a Sánchez defeat will alienate them in the Council and strain the
coalition behind Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
Spain's
Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez applauds during the extraordinary parliamentary
session to vote on a government housing decree at the Congress of Deputies in
Madrid on Oct. 2, 2026. | Javier Soriano/AFP via Getty Images
October
6, 2026 4:18 am CET
By Max Griera
BRUSSELS
— A defeat for Pedro Sánchez in Spain’s snap election risks destabilizing
the EU by putting the Socialists and Democrats on the back foot in Brussels and
pushing them into a more confrontational stance.
Sánchez,
the only Socialist-aligned leader currently running a large EU country, has
provided a center-left counterweight to decisions in a Council largely
dominated by the center right. Spain’s lawmakers form the S&D’s largest
national delegation in the European Parliament, and when Sánchez strikes a
Council deal, Spanish MEPs can usually carry his position through the group,
even over internal opposition.
A change
of government in Madrid would disrupt that arrangement, senior S&D
lawmakers told POLITICO. Polls suggest that the
country will vote in an administration led by the center-right People’s Party,
which would likely partner with the far-right Vox party.
“There
might be a temptation to look more critically at Council positions if there is
no [longer] a Socialist prime minister of a large country,” said René Repasi,
head of Germany’s SPD delegation in Parliament.
A second
senior S&D lawmaker said Sánchez helped “balance” decisions at the leaders’
table and that his absence would unsettle the informal alliance of the S&D,
liberals and the center-right European People’s Party that Commission President
Ursula von der Leyen relies on to pass legislation.
“If what
comes out of the leaders’ table, and the guidelines it gives the Commission,
becomes more conservative, it will be less appealing for progressives to feel
part of that governing majority,” said the lawmaker, who was granted anonymity
to speak about sensitive group matters.
The
S&D has lost ground elsewhere in Brussels. Since the 2024 European election
shifted Parliament to the right, the EPP has passed some legislation with
far-right groups. The Socialists have less representation in national
governments and fewer commissioners of their own, fueling repeated
tensions and attempts
to repair the alliance. With Sánchez gone, the last center-left leaders would
be Denmark’s Mette Frederiksen and Malta’s Robert Abela — with Magdalena
Andersson working to form a government in Sweden.
Spain’s
election will sound the starting gun a year of consequential votes across major
EU countries, including Italy, Poland and France, where the far-right National
Rally is leading the polls ahead of the 2027 presidential election. Far-right
forces in Brussels are pressing the EPP to drop its ban on cooperating with
them and break with its traditional ties to the S&D.
Fewer
incentives for compromise
The
S&D, Parliament’s second-largest group, has repeatedly threatened over the
past two years to withdraw support for von der Leyen, with some lawmakers
urging a more forceful stance on EU policy.
Spain’s
Iratxe García, who leads the group, has so far kept Spanish lawmakers in line.
She faces a leadership vote on Oct. 21, though she is broadly expected to keep
her post.
Should
Sánchez lose his election, all the S&D’s largest national delegations —
from Italy, Romania and France — would be in opposition at home. The only
S&D parties still in government would be junior partners in Germany and
Austria, alongside Denmark’s Social Democrats, whose hardline stance on
migration limits their influence in the group.
Without a
heavyweight prime minister from a large EU country to keep the S&D in line,
von der Leyen would face greater pressure to make more concessions to lawmakers
already frustrated by the center-right’s votes with the far right.
“If von
der Leyen still delivers on S&D priorities, she will have the support of
the group, and if that is not the case, then she will lose the support of the
group,” Repasi said. A formal alliance between Spain’s EPP and far-right Vox,
he added, “will drive us even more apart.”
The
S&D would also have fewer “incentives” to compromise without Sánchez’s
presence, the second senior lawmaker said, because the group would have less
responsibility for maintaining stability in EU institutions.
“The
institutional responsibility to guarantee support for the Commission and
stability in the EU institutions will no longer be there,” the lawmaker said. A
tougher line would be easier for the center-left “if the EPP continues striking
deals with the far right, and the European Commission fails to offer a
politically attractive agenda that progressives can sell to their voters.”
One
diplomat called the Socialists’ threat to withdraw support for von der Leyen
“not credible,” saying it would isolate the group further: “They just feel a
need to send a signal to the EPP.” Weakening or firing von der Leyen also runs
against the S&D’s interests, the diplomat added, because the EU has moved
further to the right since she first took office and “the next person coming in
would be much less inclined to work with them.”
Turbulence
ahead
Brussels
is set to become a battleground between Spain’s two main parties, with the
Spanish lawmakers leading the Socialists in Parliament, while their rivals in
the EPP form that group’s second-largest national delegation.
The
election is also weighing on talks over the EU’s next seven-year budget, known
as the Multiannual Financial Framework, which Brussels aims to conclude by the
end of the year.
“It’s not
going to do any good for the MFF,” a Commission official said, warning that
Spain risks dragging its feet during already strained negotiations. The EPP and
its allies will try to put debates on Parliament’s agenda to cause discomfort
for Sánchez, the official said, likely making the talks more “turbulent.”
Spain’s
underlying budget position will not change under a new government, a second
diplomat said, but “the election will be distracting” and “won’t incentivize
finding compromise.”
The EPP’s
Siegfried Mureșan, Parliament’s lead budget negotiator, warned EU countries not
to use the election to delay talks ahead of a leaders’ summit in mid-October.
“The European Council shall not use the political situation in Spain as an
excuse for further delays.”
EPP
leader Manfred Weber declined to comment on what a Sánchez defeat could mean
for the Socialists’ influence in Brussels, but voiced support for Spain’s
opposition leader, Alberto Núñez Feijóo.
“Spain’s
future is now in the hands of the Spanish people,” he said. “At a time when
vision and reform are needed more than ever, the EPP is proud to stand firmly
behind Alberto Núñez Feijóo. He has our full support.”
Zoya
Sheftalovich and Tim Ross contributed reporting.
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