Pedro
Sánchez is a master of the political comeback. But calling a snap election in
Spain may be a gamble too far
A
thriving economy, a model green transition, social advances – Spain’s PM
shouldn’t be in trouble. Yet he is, and it’s a lesson for progressives
everywhere
Tue 6 Oct
2026 16.57 CEST
To
progressives across the west, Spain has been a rare
glimmer of hope in a world where far-right parties are increasingly
entering government. Under Pedro Sánchez, who became prime minister in 2018,
the country has combined a post-Covid economic boom with a bold green energy
transition programme, and a pro-immigration stance with a principled opposition
to the war agenda of Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu. Yet, at the end of
next month, this rare beacon of democratic progress could fall.
On Monday
Sánchez
called a
snap
general
election,
set for 29 November, after two decrees to address the country’s housing crisis were
voted down in the lower chamber by politicians from rightwing parties.
Speaking from the staircase of the Moncloa palace, Sánchez
admitted that his government had not achieved all it had set out to do.
“Many injustices remain to be corrected … particularly regarding inequality in
public services and access to housing,” he said, adding: “To do more, we need
to renew and expand public support.”
Sánchez
attempted to pass the legislation after tens of thousands took to the streets
to protest against the housing crisis, setting up camps reminiscent of the country’s
15-M anti-austerity movement and the global Occupy movement of 2011. But
this explosion of popular anger has been long in the making. According to
Spain’s national public opinion research institute Centro de Investigaciones
Sociológicas (CIS), housing has been the country’s
top preoccupation since the end of 2024, as a growing number of people
struggle to pay rent.
In the
latest gamble of his long career as master of the political comeback, Sánchez
hopes to ride the wave of popular mobilisation to turn public attention away
from the Ceuta
immigration crisis of July, which rightwing opponents exploited as a
demonstration of the government’s failures, and focus attention on the housing
crisis, an issue where the left holds stronger political ground.
But this
time it will be hard to convince Spaniards that with a new lease of life, the
progressive coalition government will solve an issue it had promised to address
a long time ago.
Sánchez’s
troubles provide useful lessons for progressives all over the world about the
difficulties of translating policy achievements into a solid base of political
support. They are also a reminder that – as championed by New York’s mayor,
Zohran Mamdani – addressing the affordability crisis rather than promising
abstract economic growth is of more significance to voters.
In the US
midterm election campaign, Republicans are struggling because of rising
prices at the gas pump, while in Brazil, rightwing challenger Flávio
Bolsonaro just rode
to an impressive result in the first round of the presidential elections
partly due to discontent with living conditions and household pressures. In
Spain, Sánchez’s government is facing similar concerns about affordability,
which are obfuscating an otherwise impressive macro-economic performance.
Indeed,
seen from the outside, Sánchez’s Spain may appear to be a dazzling political
success. The country, which in the 2010s was derided as part of the European
Piigs – a term coined to mock Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain as
the eurozone’s weakest economies – has become an economic powerhouse. In the
years after the Covid pandemic, Spain’s GDP grew at a rate
of around 3%, while France, Germany, the UK and Italy grew at a miserly 1%
or less.
Spain is
also held up as a model of successful green transition, with renewables now
generating close to 60%
of the country’s power, which has also kept energy bills low and helped
insulate the country from the energy shocks caused by international crises.
Spain, enabled by significant Chinese investment, is also surprisingly becoming
the leading European hub for electric car production, to the dismay of some of the
country’s traditional allies.
To these
economic and environmental achievements add the significant social improvements
achieved under Sánchez, exemplified by the rise in the minimum wage from €736 to €1,184 per month since
2018.
Yet
despite these measurable successes, Sánchez’s centre-left coalition is now trailing the right
by about 7 percentage points in national polling. That’s partly because
while minimum wages have increased, median wages have remained relatively
stagnant. But it is real estate that Sánchez’s government has been judged as
failing to deliver: during its eight years in power, house prices have risen by
an estimated 50%, with rents rising by over 40%.
As
climbing the housing ladder becomes prohibitive, a growing number of young
people in Spain are forced to pay extortionate rents. This is acutely felt in
large urban areas, where the presence of tourists and digital nomads further
increases rents, forcing out local residents; this is enabled by private equity
firms, who purchase entire blocks to expel local inhabitants in order to
create Airbnbs. Sánchez’s government has repeatedly promised to take action
on these issues, but its measures have been thwarted by political gridlock or
otherwise proven indecisive, partly due to fear of alienating homeowners and
antagonising international finance.
If
Spain’s centre-left coalition falls, the country could be left with an alliance
of the mainstream conservative Partido Popular and the far-right party Vox. It
would be the most rightwing Spanish government since Francisco Franco’s
dictatorship. The lesson for progressives everywhere is clear: economic growth
and ambitious reform will count for little unless working people feel the
benefits in their daily lives.
- Paolo Gerbaudo is a senior
researcher at the faculty of political science and sociology of
Complutense University in Madrid and a lead researcher at the Alameda
Institute
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