The
tragedy of Michel Barnier
The former
European commissioner is expected to go down as France’s shortest-serving prime
minister in modern history.
Michel
Barnier’s brief stint as prime minister will end in a cataclysmic flop that
could send shockwaves across Europe. |
December 4,
2024 4:00 am CET
By Clea
Caulcutt
PARIS — He
was supposed to be the man who could pull France back from the brink. Instead,
barring a last-minute miracle, Michel Barnier’s brief stint as prime minister
will end in a cataclysmic flop that could send shockwaves across Europe.
When he took
up his role on Sept. 5, hopes were high that the lanky 73-year-old Gaullist
conservative could calm a political storm that was not only tearing France
apart but also threatening the eurozone.
Surely this
was to be the venerable grandee’s last great hurrah: Having served four times
as cabinet minister and twice as European commissioner, Barnier was viewed as a
battle-hardened negotiator who could build consensus among the political
extremes and pass a budget that would reduce France’s eye-watering deficits.
After all,
if he could run rings round the British in Brexit negotiations, he could surely
pull off one final legendary coup, assuage fears about the debt bomb, and
steady the ship for President Emmanuel Macron.
But it was
not to be. Barnier is expected to be ousted in a no-confidence vote on
Wednesday after failing to get Marine Le Pen and her far-right National Rally
party to sign off on a slimmed-down budget to wrestle the country’s finances
back in line.
After nearly
three months of tacit support for the government, the National Rally is now set
to join forces with the left-wing New Popular Front coalition and bring the
government down, Barnier’s prescription of tax hikes and public spending cuts
having proved indigestible.
The downfall
is expected to be brutal. If he is booted out, Barnier will become the first
prime minister to be ousted since 1962 and will leave his post with his
reputation tainted.
“In France,
he blundered in a big way,” said Gaspard Gantzer, a former Élysée advisor under
former President François Hollande. “I don’t know in what world he thought he
would be able to negotiate with the far right, an extremist party.”
The Barnier
effect
From the
moment he was appointed it was clear Barnier had been handed an impossible
mission, given the intense divisions in French politics.
The prime
minister was supported by a mishmash of conservatives and centrist lawmakers,
who were quickly at each other’s throats and did not command a majority in
parliament.
For a time,
however, it looked as if Barnier was hitting his stride. The French press noted
the so-called Barnier effect: The elder statesman was embracing his rather
plodding style, maintaining a zen-like calm and modestly walking to important
appointments.
The prime
minister even earned the nickname “Babar” after the famed unflappable elephant
from French children’s literature whose clothes were too baggy for him — not
unlike Barnier’s flappy jackets.
Michel
Barnier is expected to be ousted in a no-confidence vote on Wednesday after
failing to get Marine Le Pen and her far-right National Rally party to sign off
on a slimmed-down budget to wrestle the country’s finances back in line. |
Alain Jocard/Getty Images
Barnier
prescribed a bitter potion of fiscal prudence and old-fashioned values that
appeared to chime with the gloomy mood of the country, exhausted after of weeks
of political uncertainty triggered by Macron’s capricious decision to call a
snap election in July.
“[The]
Barnier effect was a real thing,” said senior conservative party official
Pierre-Henri Dumont, who hails from the same party as the PM. “People want a
breather from the slim-suited [Macronist] politician. When Barnier became prime
minister, you could clearly see the difference between a great servant of the
state, and a kid,” Dumont added, in a dismissive reference to Barnier’s
predecessor, the 35-year-old Gabriel Attal.
Barnier also
appeared able to tame the far right, after the National Rally refrained from
immediately toppling his government.
On Tuesday
evening, Barnier made one last attempt to woo the far right, refraining from
criticizing their tactics in an interview on French television, and instead
calling on lawmakers across the board to “show responsibility.”
Not such a
great negotiator
In
retrospect, the halcyon phase in French politics was short-lived. Barnier is
now on his way out, and some are saying his super-negotiator reputation may
have been, in Gantzer’s words, “a whole lot of bull.”
Benjamin
Morel, a prominent constitutional expert and political scientist at Paris
Panthéon-Assas University, argued Barnier had wasted his honeymoon period by
not using it to negotiate more frankly with Le Pen and “hand her a clear win”
to satisfy her voters.
“His
management of parliamentary politics was cataclysmic,” Morel said.
Barnier’s
track record negotiating the Brexit divorce deal with successive British
governments may have helped inflate expectations he would find a way to work
with a deeply fractured and fragmented French parliament.
The bête
noire of the British Brexiteers had shown undaunted calm during the four years
he negotiated a Brexit deal, despite the acrimonious relations with the British
conservative government, sticking to his talking points and his famous
catchphrase: “The clock is ticking.”
Many found
Barnier’s reputation unwarranted, however. JoJo Penn, who was deputy chief of
staff to former British Prime Minister Theresa May, said the reality was that
Barnier was less significant than other officials when it came to the crunch
talks.
Michel
Barnier was viewed as a battle-hardened negotiator who could build consensus
among the political extremes and pass a budget that would reduce France’s
eye-watering deficits. |
“Barnier
seemed to be happy to be seen at key moments but leave the rest to his deputy,”
she said.
Should
Barnier’s tenure end on Wednesday, his legacy will undoubtedly be tarnished.
He will
likely be remembered as having successfully helped prevent the spread of Brexit
populism across Europe, only to be defeated by a populist back home.
“Michel
Barnier was presented as the great European negotiator,” Morel said. “But
frankly I haven’t seen any sign of that.”
Tim Ross
contributed to this report.
Sem comentários:
Enviar um comentário