Analysis
It’s the
best of times for Notre Dame, but the worst of times for the French PM
Angelique
Chrisafis
in Paris
It seems
Michel Barnier’s experience of negotiating Brexit with the British was no match
for the bitter rivalry of French politics
Tue 3 Dec
2024 20.34 CET
When
Emmanuel Macron welcomes world leaders to the reopening of Paris’s Notre Dame
Cathedral this weekend, after fire damaged it five years ago, he might have
hoped it would serve as a metaphor for people from all backgrounds coming
together to prevent a hallowed edifice collapsing.
Instead, it
is likely the French government itself will have fallen by Wednesday evening,
with voters’ trust of politicians and the political process in charred ruins.
The French
president is entering a new period of political uncertainty and parliamentary
chaos, which critics say is of his own making. The repercussions are still
being felt from his gamble of calling a snap parliamentary election in June.
It was never
going to be easy when the rightwing former Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier was
appointed by Macron as prime minister in September, after a summer of political
paralysis in the wake of an inconclusive election.
But it has
taken only three months for Barnier to face being ousted in a no-confidence
vote, likely to become the shortest-lived premier in modern French history.
The
political landscape in France remains more deeply divided than ever. The snap
election saw a leftwing coalition become the biggest political force after
tactical voting held back the rise of Marine Le Pen’s far-right
anti-immigration National Rally party (RN).
But instead
of appointing a prime minister from the left, which fell short of an absolute
majority of 289 seats in the national assembly, Macron hesitated for months
then opted for Barnier, whose traditional rightwing party Les Républicains had
come a lowly fourth in the vote – behind Macron’s damaged but still-standing
centrist grouping, and far behind Le Pen’s party.
The left
called it a denial of democracy. Le Pen, whom many voters on the left and
centre had clubbed together to keep from power, was now essentially propping up
Barnier’s minority coalition in an unprecedentedly powerful role.
Barnier, in
order for his government to last, had to keep Le Pen neutralised to prevent her
from joining the leftwing opposition in a no-confidence vote. He was so keen to
show favour to the RN leader that he personally called her in September to calm
and reassure her when his economy minister, Antoine Armand, spoke publicly
about not wanting to work with MPs from the far right. In recent days, when Le
Pen voiced her “red lines” over Barnier’s budget plans, he made very public
concessions – from electricity taxes to prescription medication costs – until
the final hour. But this failed.
The leftwing
daily Libération said Barnier had “grovelled” to Le Pen. Le Pen and her party
in effect pulled the plug, saying they would vote for the left alliance’s
no-confidence motion on Wednesday night, which will bring Barnier and the
government down.
Le Pen’s
political tactics and ambition appear to have been underestimated by Barnier
and his team. Perhaps Barnier’s experience of negotiating Brexit with the
British, awkward as it often was, was no match for the bitter rivalry of French
politics at home.
Le Pen, for
now, emerges strengthened. Thanks to Barnier, her anti-immigration party –
which for decades was regarded as a danger to democracy that promoted racist,
antisemitic and anti-Muslim views and had to be kept out of mainstream politics
at all costs – has, for the first time in its 50-year history, been openly
negotiated with by a government and treated on a level playing field.
The National
Rally knows many of its voters are struggling with the cost of living. It said
it was opposing Barnier’s social security budget and belt-tightening plans to
protect its almost 11 million voters. Le Pen’s supporters in constituencies
across France were also increasingly angry at Macron and keen for the National
Rally to act against the government.
Barnier’s
team had thought Le Pen would never oust them because she instead wanted to
present herself as a source of stability in parliament rather than plunging
France into crisis with a government collapse.
But as well
as pressure from far-right voters, Le Pen was facing her own legal problems,
which had increased the urgency for her to act. Widely seen as the frontrunner
in the 2027 presidential race, she faces the possibility of being barred from
running in that election after prosecutors sought a mandatory five-year ban
from public office for her alleged role in embezzling EU parliament funds to
pay staff in France. She denies the allegations. A verdict and sentence will be
handed down by judges in March 2025.
Macron
himself is under no obligation to resign over the political chaos and has
previously said he won’t. The president’s final term ends in 2027.
There cannot
be another parliament election until July 2025 at the earliest. So, if the
government falls, Macron must appoint another prime minister to form a new
government to work with the same divided parliament. There is political
uncertainty over how a budget will be decided.
Barnier had
promised a “new era” for France when he was appointed. This week, he warned the
no-confidence vote was “plunging France into the unknown”.
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