‘The stakes could not be higher’: world is on
edge of climate abyss, UN warns
Top climate figures respond to Guardian survey of
scientists who expect temperatures to soar, saying leaders must act radically
Climate scientists expect global heating to blast past
1.5C target
Damian
Carrington Environment editor
Thu 9 May
2024 15.00 BST
The world
is on the verge of a climate abyss, the UN has warned, in response to a
Guardian survey that found that hundreds of the world’s foremost climate
experts expect global heating to soar past the international target of 1.5C.
A series of
leading climate figures have reacted to the findings, saying the deep despair
voiced by the scientists must be a renewed wake-up call for urgent and radical
action to stop burning fossil fuels and save millions of lives and livelihoods.
Some said the 1.5C target was hanging by a thread, but it was not yet
inevitable that it would be passed, if an extraordinary change in the pace of
climate action could be achieved.
The
Guardian got the views of almost 400 senior authors of reports by the
authoritative Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Almost 80% expected a
rise of at least 2.5C above preindustrial levels, a catastrophic level of
heating, while only 6% thought it would stay within the 1.5C limit. Many
expressed their personal anguish at the lack of climate action.
“The goal
of limiting global warming to 1.5C is hanging by a thread,” said the official
spokesperson for António Guterres, the UN secretary general. “The battle to
keep 1.5C alive will be won or lost in the 2020s – under the watch of political
and industry leaders today. They need to realise we are on the verge of the
abyss. The science is clear and so are the world’s scientists: the stakes for
all humanity could not be higher.”
Alok
Sharma, the president of the Cop26 climate summit in 2021, said: “The results
of the Guardian’s survey should be another wake-up call for governments to stop
prevaricating and inject much more urgency into delivering on the climate
commitments they have already made.” He said world leaders needed to get on and
deliver on the pledge they made to transition away from fossil fuels at Cop28
in December.
Christiana
Figueres, the UN climate chief who oversaw the landmark 2015 Paris climate deal
where the 1.5C goal was adopted, said: “These climate scientists are doing
their job. They are telling us where we are, but now it’s up to the rest of us
to decide what this moment requires of us and [to] turn the seemingly
impossible into the new normal.”
She said
the world was on the edge of positive societal tipping points away from fossil
fuels. “It doesn’t mean a utopian future – we know too much climate change is
already baked into the system – but enormous positive change is coming. A world
in which we pass 1.5C is not set in stone.”
The 1.5C
target was initially proposed by the Alliance of Small Island States (Aosis).
Fatumanava Pa’olelei Luteru, the chair of Aosis, said: “Our islands are quite
literally sinking as the temperatures rise. The lack of ambition on climate
change from bigger countries is consigning our states to a reality of
devastating loss. The [Guardian] report must be a wake-up call to the world.”
Fatumanava
Pa’olelei Luteru, the chair of Aosis, said: “Our islands are quite literally
sinking as the temperatures rise. The lack of ambition on climate change from
bigger countries is consigning our states to a reality of devastating loss. The
[Guardian] report must be a wake-up call to the world.”
Mohamed
Adow, from Power Shift Africa, said: “It’s good to see the experts who follow
climate most closely sharing their horror at the lack of action from
governments. Those of us living in countries facing the worst effects of the
climate crisis feel this too. My country of Kenya has faced its worst drought
in 40 years and then last week saw hundreds killed in devastating floods. We
wish leaders had the same sense of urgency as the climate scientists.”
Youth
climate activists from around the world also shared the climate experts’ fears.
“Crashing through the guardrail of 1.5C would be a death sentence for millions
of people in the global south,” said Vanessa Nakate, at Rise Up Movement
Uganda. “Unless we see immediate action no one will be safe.”
Disha Ravi,
at Fridays For Future India, cited the dire impacts of India’s recent
heatwaves: “The complacency of leaders is killing people. Temperature rises
beyond 2.5C are not inevitable, but averting it requires genuine commitment and
action from those in power.”
Policy
experts, economists and business leaders responded to the Guardian findings
with both frustration and calls for urgent change. Rachel Kyte, a professor of
practice in climate policy at the University of Oxford, said: “It is
desperately frustrating that our political, economic and social systems don’t
know what to do with the science. We need … innovations in our democracy to
give scientists the politics they deserve.”
Nicholas
Stern, an eminent climate economist, said: “The Guardian’s results are a
message from scientists that they lack confidence in our world leaders to take
the necessary action to avert climate catastrophe. It’s not too late for
political leaders to act but the scale and pace of change must be large and
rapid.”
Helen
Clarkson, the chief executive of the Climate Group, which runs a network of 500
multinational businesses, said: “The Guardian survey is a stark reminder of the
gap between climate targets and action.”
The
respondents to the Guardian survey identified lack of political will as the
single biggest barrier to climate action. Harjeet Singh, at the Fossil Fuel
Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative, said: “For decades, governments,
especially in rich countries, have consistently prioritised the fossil fuel
industry’s interests over the wellbeing of their people. We have a narrow
window to avert the worst outcomes, but it requires urgent, transformative
policies that prioritise the wellbeing of people and the planet over profit.”
Some
politicians backed the call for urgent action. Caroline Lucas, a UK Green party
MP, said: “The world’s leading scientists are running out of words to describe
the gravity of the climate emergency we face. Politicians need to wake up and
treat this catastrophic threat with the seriousness and urgency it requires.”
Ed
Miliband, the shadow climate change minister in the UK, said: “Every fraction
of a degree matters to the survival of our planet for future generations.
That’s why we need governments around the world to maximise climate action,
rather than rowing back.”
In the US,
Representative Chrissy Houlahan said: “[The Guardian report] should give all of
us in Congress even more urgency to act swiftly and bipartisanly.” Bas
Eickhout, a Green member of the European parliament, said: “I recognise the
feelings of despair of the scientists very well. However, we simply do not have
the option of giving up.”
Additional
reporting by Nina Lakhani, Helena Horton, Oliver Milman and Lisa O’Carroll.
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