Brussels Playbook: MBS dinner date — Ukraine Statehood
Day — ECB preview
BY SUZANNE
LYNCH AND JAKOB HANKE VELA
July 28,
2022 7:00 am
POLITICO
Brussels Playbook
By SUZANNE
LYNCH and JAKOB HANKE VELA
with ZOYA
SHEFTALOVICH
GUESS WHO’S
COMING TO DINNER
SEAT AT THE
TABLE: French President Emmanuel Macron will host Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed
bin Salman for dinner this evening in Paris, the Elysée has confirmed. That
sets the stage for one of the most controversial meetings to date for the
French president on his home turf.
What’s a
murder between friends? The French working dinner is part of the crown prince’s
first trip to the EU since the 2018 assassination of Saudi journalist Jamal
Khashoggi — reportedly ordered by Mohammed bin Salman himself.
Recap: The
brutal killing of Khashoggi inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul sent
shockwaves through the international community and drew global condemnation.
MBS became an international pariah as Western leaders fell over themselves to
cancel meetings with him. But that was then …
Back in the
fold: Tonight’s tête-à-tête with Macron is the latest stage in Mohammed bin
Salman’s rehabilitation. He arrives in the French capital from Greece, where it
was all smiles as he signed a series of bilateral agreements, including a new
deal on undersea data cables. Earlier this month, U.S. President Joe Biden
abandoned his assurances from the 2020 presidential campaign that he would not
meet the 36-year-old prince, and greeted MBS with a fist bump in Jeddah.
On the
menu: The Elysée has provided little details of the soirée, but the pair are
expected to discuss energy and the fight against terrorism. This is not the
first meeting between the two since the Khashoggi murder — Macron
controversially became one of the first Western leaders to meet him in
December.
Short
memories: MBS’ European tour is a reminder that for all the talk of European
values, economics trumps morality for many EU governments, particularly as they
seek new sources of energy amid Russia’s war on Ukraine. The Saudi visit comes
at a time when the EU is already facing questions about its willingness to do
business with regimes that have shameful track records on human rights. Exhibit
A: Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s recent visit to Azerbaijan to
tap new sources of energy.
METSOLA TO
ADDRESS THE RADA
UKRAINIAN
STATEHOOD DAY: Almost four months since European Parliament President Roberta
Metsola became the first EU leader to visit Kyiv, she will once again address
the Ukrainian parliament, this time via video.
New
meaning: July 28 is traditionally the day Ukraine marks its independence from
the Soviet Union more than 30 years ago. But this year it is taking on extra
resonance due to the Russian invasion.
EU
assurances: Metsola will use the speech to reassure Ukraine that Brussels is
committed to admitting the country to the 27-member union, following last
month’s decision by the European Council to grant it candidate status.
Speech
preview: “Today is symbolic not just for Ukraine and for Ukrainians, but for
all of Europe,” Metsola will say, according to a draft seen by Playbook.
“Granting Ukraine candidate status on 23 June confirms our commitment to
walking side by side towards your full membership into the European Union. It
may not be an easy road, but the European Parliament, your strongest advocate,
is there for you to assist you on every step of the way.”
PARLIAMENT’S
ACCESSION SCORECARD: Metsola’s speech today comes as the European Parliament
published a report this week on the accession prospects of Ukraine, Moldova and
Georgia. The update by the European Parliamentary Research Service gives an
enthusiastic welcome to Ukraine and Moldova’s plans — but is somewhat cooler on
Georgia.
Worries:
The report sounds alarm bells about violations of media freedom and journalist
safety in Georgia, as well as the need for higher standards on rule of law and
judicial independence.
What’s
missing: The European Political Community. The idea of a new, broader community
that would include non-EU members was first floated by Macron at the European
Parliament in Strasbourg in May and picked up by European Council President
Charles Michel at the June summit. The proposal only gets a cursory mention at the
end of the report, despite being the new big idea when it comes to enlargement,
and likely to feature in October’s summit in Prague.
Commission
scorecard: The Commission this week published its annual report card on
Ukraine’s implementation of its Association Agreement with the EU. Covering the
period from December 1, 2020 until the start of the Russian invasion, the
report finds that despite the war, “key reforms have gained new momentum.”
More to do:
But Enlargement Commissioner Olivér Várhelyi warned that, despite the European
Council granting Ukraine a membership perspective in June, Kyiv still needs to
pursue further reforms, particularly when it comes to rule of law and
corruption and fundamental rights.
BERLIN UPS
MILITARY AID: The German government has approved a request by defense company
Krauss-Maffei Wegmann to produce 100 howitzers for the Ukrainian army, reports
POLITICO’s Hans von der Burchard. Berlin’s readiness to sell such a large
quantity of the Panzerhaubitze 2000 howitzer marks a significant increase in
military support for Ukraine — although it will likely take many months before
the first artillery units arrive there.
Speaking of
delays, where are those tanks Berlin promised? Remember the tank-swap scheme
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz proposed in April, in which he promised European
allies that if they sent Ukraine their older tanks, Berlin would quickly
replace them from its own supply? Three months later, Germany is struggling to
implement many of these deals, Hans also reports.
LAVROV’S
AFRICA OUTREACH GETS EUROPE THINKING: Russia’s overtures in Africa have left
European officials anxious about the EU’s cautious pace to re-engage the
Ethiopian government, despite accusations of war crimes and ethnic cleansing,
reports our colleague Ilya Gridneff.
GRAIN DEAL
WORRIES: Ukraine is hoping the British government and international financial
institutions will ensure that sea captains are safe to navigate heavily mined
Black Sea waters. POLITICO’s Eddy Wax and Sarah Anne Aarup interviewed
Ukraine’s Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov — who signed the Black Sea
deal in Turkey last week — and have the details.
DOING
BUSINESS WITH CHINA
BUILDING
BRIDGES: Relations between China and Brussels may not be at their best right
now, but that didn’t stop the EU from celebrating the opening of a new bridge
in Croatia — built by a Chinese company.
Hey, big
spender: Commission Vice President Dubravka Šuica attended the opening of the
Pelješac Bridge in Croatia this week, linking the mainland to the Pelješac
peninsula. The project is one of the biggest outlays of EU cohesion funds in
recent years, with the EU contributing a hefty €357 million.
Chinese
presence: The China Road and Bridge Corporation (CRBC) was chosen to build the
bridge in 2018 after a tender process — in one of the biggest EU
infrastructural contracts signed with a Chinese company. (The CRBC is better
known as a major player in Africa, where it has completed billions of dollars
worth of projects in Kenya, Rwanda and elsewhere.)
Don’t
mention democracy: Also at Tuesday’s opening event? Chinese Premier Li Keqiang,
who addressed attendees via videolink. Li hailed the bridge as a reflection of
“cooperation between China and the EU.” Playbook wonders if Šuica, in her
capacity as commissioner for democracy and demography, got a chance to raise
issues of democracy with the high-ranking Chinese official, given Beijing’s
shortcomings on that front.
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IN OTHER
NEWS
ECB
INTERVIEW: Will the European Central Bank raise interest rates by another 50
basis points in September? Not so fast, Governing Council member Ignazio Visco
has hinted in an interview with POLITICO. Speaking to our own Johanna Treeck,
the Italian central bank governor suggested the ECB may refrain from another
robust interest rate increase at its next meeting amid the tepid growth outlook
in the eurozone.
DUTCH GET
DIRTY: Dutch farmers dumped manure and set hay on fire along major highways on
Wednesday, prompting traffic jams in central and eastern parts of the
Netherlands — the latest protest against government plans to reduce fertilizer
use and livestock numbers. The Hague has presented plans to slash emissions
largely produced by livestock in half by 2030. Our colleague Camille Gijs has
an explainer.
Broader
trend: The Netherlands is not the only EU country facing a clash between
climate and farming priorities. Ireland’s three-party coalition government is
locked in a standoff over plans to cut emissions from the agricultural sector,
with the Green Party demanding more stringent cuts than coalition partners
Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.
MELONI IN
POLE POSITION: The party with the most votes will choose the prime minister if
the right-wing bloc wins Italy’s election in September, the alliance announced
Wednesday. That makes Brothers of Italy leader Giorgia Meloni the favorite to
succeed Mario Draghi. More from Reuters.
US SENATORS
WARN ABOUT RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA IN SPANISH: American big tech platforms are
getting better at policing Russian disinformation in English — but a group of
influential U.S. senators on Wednesday warned about a Spanish blind spot. In a
letter, they called on the CEOs of Meta, Twitter, and Telegram to increase
efforts to moderate content by Russian state media services RT en Español and
Sputnik Mundo.
US
REPUTATION TAKES A HIT: America’s reputation in Europe’s biggest countries is
at its lowest point in nine months, a drop that can be linked to the Texas
school shooting in Uvalde and the U.S. Supreme Court decision to overturn the
Roe v. Wade ruling that afforded Americans federal abortion rights.
Reversal:
The dip follows a high point in Europe’s views of America following the Russian
invasion of Ukraine. But the research — which covers the United Kingdom,
France, Germany, Italy and Spain — shows that goodwill evaporated after the
Uvalde shooting and plummeted further following the U.S. Supreme Court’s June
24 decision.
SPOILS OF
WAR: Sweden and Poland are locked in a dispute, and it’s got nothing to do with
the current geopolitical situation in Europe. Right-wing MP Björn Söder, from
the Sweden Democrats, is demanding the return of Łaski’s Statute, a document
dating from the early 1500s which was swiped by Sweden during an invasion in
the mid-17th century.
No chance:
The original book, which first codified Polish law, is now held by Uppsala
University — and Sweden’s Foreign Minister Ann Linde said she won’t return it,
as it was a “legitimate” spoil of war. POLITICO’s Wilhelmine Preussen has more.
UK TORY
LEADERSHIP RACE LATEST: Liz Truss, the foreign secretary, and Rishi Sunak, the
former chancellor, are falling over one other to convince Conservative Party
members that they would be toughest on Beijing if chosen as the next Tory
leader and PM. POLITICO’s Eleni Courea and Stuart Lau put their claims to the
test here.
OP-ED —
DON’T GIVE UP ON TAIWAN: European leaders are ignoring the peril Taiwan is
facing from China, argues Jonas Parello-Plesner, executive director of the
Alliance of Democracies Foundation and a non-resident senior fellow at the
German Marshall Fund, in this opinion piece for POLITICO.
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