Food
price fears after Europe’s heatwave destroys estimated €2bn of crops
Record
June temperatures expected to cut grain harvest by 9m tonnes to its lowest
level since 2018
Joanna
Partridge
Wed 22
Jul 2026 15.12 BST
The
heatwave that swept across Europe in June is estimated to have cost the
continent’s grain farmers €2bn (£1.7bn) in lost revenue and destroyed 9m tonnes
of crops, sparking concern about the impact on the price of food.
Coceral,
the European cereals and oilseeds trade association, made the estimate for the
harvest of crops such as wheat, barley, maize and oats following the heatwave.
The
reduction of 9m tonnes would mean the 27 EU member states and the UK will
record their smallest harvest since 2018, and represents lost crop production
larger than the combined total forecast grain production of Austria, Ireland
and the Netherlands.
Coceral
has linked the crop losses to the hottest June on record in western Europe.
Maize was affected during the crucial pollination period, while wheat was
affected during the time known as “grain fill”, when cereals need moisture to
fill out, a key stage of development for crop yield.
Based on
current prices, the value of lost grain production is estimated by the Energy
and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) thinktank to be about €2bn, although this
figure does not include wider costs of the heatwave, such as lost vegetable
crops and livestock.
Tom
Lancaster, the ECIU’s land, food and farming analyst, said: “This will hit
farmers in the pockets, reducing their income and undermining European food
security at the same time. In the UK we have already seen three of the five
worst harvests on record this decade, and recent heatwaves here will inevitably
have cost British farmers again.”
France is
expected to suffer reductions in grain production, where an estimated 3.4m
tonnes of maize has been lost, with the cost of lost grains expected to reach
€891m. The next biggest grain losses are expected in Hungary (2.4m tonnes) and
Spain (1.4m tonnes).
Benoît
Merlo, a farmer in the Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes region of France, said a decade of
adapting his farm to hotter and drier conditions had not helped this year:
“With temperatures exceeding 38C for weeks on end, everything is breaking down.
I’m expecting yield losses of at least 50%, or even 70%, for certain crops,
such as soya.”
British
farmers are reporting dry conditions across much of the UK following the June
heatwave and a dry spring, although this has been felt most acutely in East
Anglia and parts of south-east England, with regional variations expected.
Helen
Plant, the lead analyst for cereals and oilseeds, at the Agriculture and
Horticulture Development Board (AHDB), said: “The dry conditions through April
and much of May have clearly taken a toll on crop development, particularly for
spring crops and winter cereals with limited moisture reserves.”
The
result of the UK harvest is uncertain, the AHDB said, while many farmers have
had to bring forward harvesting as a result of the hot, dry weather.
Paul
Tompkins, deputy president of the National Farmers’ Union, said: “Farmers and
growers across the country are working around the clock to harvest crops which
have come early, keep fruit and vegetables watered, and care for their
livestock.
“For many
arable farmers, this could be another difficult and expensive harvest after
extreme weather impacts in both 2024 and 2025 which saw both drought and
flood.”
The lost
crops are expected to make Europe more dependent on grain imports, pushing
global commodity prices higher, although this will also be affected by the
southern hemisphere harvest in late 2026 and early 2027.
The
shortfall in European grain production comes as global crop supplies are also
tightening, as southern and western parts of the US are suffering from severe
drought, affecting grain and meat production.
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