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Politics
Will the
Iran War Backlash Save an Anti-Trump Republican?
Katie
Glueck
By Katie
Glueck
May 15,
2026
President
Trump’s influence and popularity are about to be tested in a series of
must-watch Republican primary races.
Tomorrow
is Primary Day in Louisiana, where Senator Bill Cassidy, who voted for an
impeachment conviction of Trump after the Capitol riot on Jan. 6, 2021, will
face his party’s voters. Trump is supporting Representative Julia Letlow, one
of Cassidy’s opponents.
After
that comes Kentucky, home to the most expensive congressional primary on
record, as the libertarian-leaning Representative Thomas Massie tries to fight
off the Trump-backed Ed Gallrein. That Tuesday race is especially interesting
because Massie is a rare Republican critic of Trump — and he has been
especially outspoken against Trump’s foreign interventions, particularly the
war with Iran.
My
colleague Jennifer Medina just got back from Kentucky, where she looked at how
the war is shaping this fascinating House race. Tonight, she’s joining us with
fresh details from the ground. Our conversation has been edited and condensed.
Jenny,
thank you so much for joining. Typically, most Americans don’t vote on foreign
policy. How much did the war with Iran — and the related rise in gas prices at
home — seem to be motivating the voters you met in Kentucky?
Hi Katie,
thanks for having me! You’re right, of course, that foreign policy rarely moves
voters.
What’s
different here is that Massie has made opposition to foreign aid and
intervention one of his central positions. And his opposition to the war has
prompted a lot of anger from President Trump. It was fascinating to hear from
many Massie supporters who view that as a sign of his strength and integrity.
But even
more than that, so many voters are furious about the way the war is driving up
costs, especially for gas.
I was
struck by some of the criticism of Trump from Republican voters in your story.
That’s quite rare to see. Did you detect a brewing backlash to Trump on the
right, or were most voters not going that far?
The
criticism of Trump was really striking to hear from these voters, who
absolutely consider themselves conservatives. “What happened to ‘America
First’?” was a refrain I heard. Several told me they thought the president had
abandoned one of his core campaign promises to get out of foreign wars and
focus on problems in our own country — especially the economy. I spoke to a few
who said they regretted voting for Trump.
There is
a backlash is some quarters, no doubt, but it’s hard to know how much that
grows. Many voters remain fiercely loyal to Trump, even if they think he is
making a mistake on Iran.
I would
never ask a fellow political reporter to make predictions about the outcome of
a race — but was it possible to gauge momentum at all? How did it feel on the
ground?
I would
never make a prediction! The polls have consistently suggested that this race
is extremely tight.
I will
say that most Massie voters sounded quite optimistic — certainly more so than
the congressman himself. There is just a lot of loyalty to him. His vocal
criticism of Trump got him into the toughest battle of his career, but his
image as an iconoclast may help him in the district. This is a place where
people are extremely proud of their independence.
Aspects
of this race have gotten quite ugly. In one weird and dramatic twist, William
Paul, the son of Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, drunkenly told a New York
congressman that if Massie lost, it would be the fault of “you Jews.” (The
congressman, Mike Lawler, who is not Jewish, condemned the younger Paul’s
antisemitic tirade, which unfolded at a Washington bar and was reported by the
outlet NOTUS.)
How are
issues related to antisemitism and debates about Israel playing out in this
race?
The
debate over Israel has consumed the Democratic Party over the last few years,
but it is also playing out in very real ways in this Republican primary.
Massie
has long opposed providing more aid to Israel and has been an outspoken critic
of the country’s actions since the Hamas-led Oct. 7, 2023, attacks. Several
outside groups, including the Republican Jewish Coalition and a pro-Israel
super PAC, have spent millions. That has brought its own backlash.
One
television advertisement attacking Ed Gallrein said he was supported by
“weirdos” and showed an image of Paul Singer, a donor who is Jewish, with a
rainbow Star of David behind him.
I also
saw hints of the tensions over Israel, and pro-Israel groups like the American
Israel Public Affairs Committee, among voters. When I went to hear Massie speak
to a group of Republicans in Boone County, I saw a guy in his 20s wearing a
shirt emblazoned “Defund AIPAC.”
What
surprised you most about your time on the ground?
I was
struck by how engaged and nuanced so many voters were. There was no question
that they thought about the war mostly in terms of the price of gas. At the
same time, many of these voters are still broadly supportive of the president.
And yet:
Even some of those voters told me they planned to vote for Massie. It’s another
reminder that voters are endlessly complicated and races are often
unpredictable.
It also
made me think that it’s impossible to know where the Republican base goes once
Trump leaves office.
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