Massie’s
primary is the most expensive in history. Pro-Israel groups have played a huge
part.
Ad
spending in the race to unseat the rebellious Republican has smashed House
records.
By Lisa
Kashinsky
05/17/2026
10:00 AM EDT
The
pro-Israel lobby that’s pumped millions into Democratic primaries this year is
facing the next test of its political power on the right in ruby-red Kentucky.
The
American Israel Public Affairs Committee and other pro-Israel interest groups
have uncorked over $9 million in a bid to unseat Republican Rep. Thomas Massie
on Tuesday in a competitive primary that has shattered spending records.
Prominent pro-Israel GOP donors have funneled millions more into a super PAC
stood up by President Donald Trump’s political operation that has spent nearly
$7 million on the race. Overall ad spending has topped $32 million, making it
the most expensive House primary on record, per tracking firm AdImpact.
Pro-Israel
groups got the opening they needed to spend big against the isolationist
lawmaker whenTrump decided to front a primary challenger to Massie, presenting
the first serious threat to his reelection in over a decade. The Republican
Jewish Coalition Victory Fund and United Democracy Project, AIPAC’s super PAC,
have attacked the incumbent for his votes against symbolic measures supporting
Israel.
And
unlike in recent Democratic primaries where United Democracy Project has used
shell PACs to shield its involvement, the powerful pro-Israel group’s political
arm is investing directly in taking Massie out.
“He’s the
most anti-Israel Republican in the House,” United Democracy Project
spokesperson Patrick Dorton said of Massie. “This is a competitive, close
primary situation. It’s always hard to defeat incumbents. … But we think
there’s an opportunity here.”
Tuesday’s
primary will serve as a key test of the lobby’s power over a party whose
historically ironclad support for Israel is starting to show cracks in the wake
of wars in Gaza and Iran. Unfavorable views of the U.S. ally are on the rise in
the GOP, driven by slumping support among younger Republicans. Jewish
Republicans are grappling over how to confront antisemitism in the party. And
some prominent conservatives — including key Massie allies like Tucker Carlson
and former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), who have also fallen out of
favor with Trump — are amplifying views that are harshly critical of Israel in
the name of adhering to “America First.”
Massie
insists he is “not antisemitic” and “not against Israel.” In an interview
Friday, he warned against “trying to equate criticism of the policies of
Benjamin Netanyahu with antisemitism.”
Still,
Massie is centering the crush of cash from pro-Israel groups and donors in his
campaign, which he has acknowleged is his toughest reelection fight yet given
Trump’s involvement and the outside spending it’s unleashed. Massie has accused
his opponents of trying to buy his seat by boosting his Trump-backed rival,
former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein. On Thursday, he announced a bill that attempts to
force AIPAC to register under the Foreign Agents Registration Act — a notable
escalation in the closing days of the campaign.
“When
this race is over, whether I won or lost, that’s the story: Were they able to
come in and take out a Republican who’s skeptical of Benjamin Netanyahu’s
policies?” Massie told POLITICO last month after a candidate forum in his
district. “My opponent wouldn’t even be out of the starting blocks if it
weren’t for that money.”
Republicans
who strongly back Israel and its policies say defeating Massie is a step toward
reasserting that supporting Israel is good politics — and a way to ward off
candidates who hold critical views of the country in other races.
“For
those of us who care about these issues, ousting Massie is critical,” said Gabe
Groisman, a former Republican Jewish Coalition board member and Florida-based
donor who is not involved in the race. “It’s super important to build and keep
a wall, and let those [Israel-critical] voices remain outside voices and not
inside voices on the floor making policy and impacting policy in Washington.”
Added one
operative involved in the outside effort to oust Massie: “Other ambitious
politicians might look at this race and think ‘gee, that’s a pretty risky
approach, maybe lining up with Tucker and Massie isn’t actually great
politics.’ Sane incumbents try to avoid primaries, and incumbents who follow
Tucker off the cliff are going to get them.”
A
libertarian-leaning conservative whose stands often make him a lone wolf in
Congress, Massie has long drawn ire from Israel allies over his opposition to
military aid to Israel and to symbolic resolutions supporting the country and
condemning antisemitism. A spending hawk and frequent critic of foreign
interventions who regularly is the sole vote against symbolic resolutions,
Massie has said that he’s against all foreign aid, not just to Israel. He
dismissed the resolutions as “meaningless” measures that he felt violated the
First Amendment or had language equating anti-Zionism with antisemitism.
“Does
Israel have the right to exist? Every country has a right to exist,” Massie
said in his interview last month with POLITICO. He added: “Why do you need 30
resolutions on the floor of the House to support Israel?”
Massie
has also criticized what he believes is AIPAC’s outsized influence in U.S.
foreign policy. He has accused the bipartisan group, which has bundled millions
of dollars for lawmakers on both sides of the aisle over the years, of
leveraging its financial resources to keep congressional Republicans in line on
Israel. With his new bill, he is accusing AIPAC of “lobbying and acting on
behalf of the interests of Israel.”
AIPAC
spokesperson Deryn Sousa responded to that charge by yoking Massie to
Israel-critical Democrats, saying the lawmakers have long “tried to demonize
millions of Americans, including thousands of AIPAC members in Kentucky’s
Fourth District, for advocating that America stand with an ally that makes us
safer, stronger, and more prosperous.”
Israel-friendly
groups have targeted Massie before. Days before Massie’s 2024 primary, AIPAC’s
super PAC dropped $300,000 on ads assailing the representative for being
“hostile to Israel.” RJC backed a primary challenger in his 2020 race, but
later rescinded its endorsement and PAC support for Todd McMurtry after
problematic social media posts surfaced.
But
Trump’s involvement this round ratcheted up the stakes — and unleashed an
unprecedented amount of spending.
RJC
Victory Fund has unloaded more than $4 million on a sextet of ads attacking
Massie over his opposition to the joint U.S.-Israel war in Iran and promoting
Trump’s endorsement of Gallrein. It’s the most the group has ever spent in a
House primary, according to AdImpact. AIPAC, meanwhile, has put almost $5
million behind a trio of spots slamming Massie for siding with progressive
Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) in rejecting
pro-Israel resolutions, including ones reaffirming U.S. support for Israel
after Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack and condemning an Iranian drone attack on the
country in 2024. Their combined spending has helped propel Massie’s primary
into the record books, eclipsing the more than $25 million in combined ad
spending tracked by AdImpact when pro-Israel groups groups successfully
targeted Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.) in 2024.
It’s a
more direct approach than AIPAC has taken in other races this year. And it
reflects the different political realities the bipartisan group is facing
depending on which side of the aisle it’s playing, as the deeply divided
Democratic base openly wars over AIPAC after its interventions in New Jersey
and Illinois.
“AIPAC’s
views on Thomas Massie are no secret,” Dorton said. “We use different tactics
in different districts. Our goal is to win.”
Several
prominent donors who are supportive of Israel have also bankrolled the MAGA KY
super PAC started by former Trump campaign manager Chris LaCivita and pollster
Tony Fabrizio, including $1 million from hedge fund manager Paul Singer and
$750,000 from a super PAC linked to casino magnate Miriam Adelson. Another
group, the Christians United for Israel Action Fund, has spent six figures on
billboards targeting Massie. A representative for Singer declined comment on
the record. LaCivita and representatives for Adelson and Christians United for
Israel Action Fund did not respond.
The glut
of outside spending has caught the attention of some of the GOP’s biggest
Israel critics.
Two weeks
out from the election, Massie traveled to Maine to appear on Carlson’s podcast
for a lengthy segment in which the two bashed Israel-aligned groups’ efforts to
influence the race. James Fishback, a longshot candidate for Florida governor
who has been sharply critical of Israel’s actions in Gaza and U.S. aid to its
ally, endorsed Massie this week. Fishback told POLITICO that he views the
deluge against Massie — who is “not some hardline Israel skeptic” — as a sign
Israel supporters are “on their last legs.”
The race
has generated some explicitly antisemitic moments as well.
Hold The
Line PAC, a group that says it is focused on election integrity, ran a
pro-Massie ad claiming Gallrein was “bought and paid for by the LGBTQ mafia.”
The ad focuses on Singer, who is Jewish, and shows an unexplained rainbow Star
of David in the background. The group did not immediately respond to a request
for comment on why the image was included. Tim Murtaugh, an adviser to
Gallrein’s campaign, said “this is just sad” in a statement in response to the
ad.
And the
son of Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), a close Massie ally, drunkenly lobbed
antisemitic insults at Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.), who is not Jewish, over the
race while at a Capitol Hill bar this week, according to NOTUS. William Paul
later apologized. Massie has not publicly addressed the ad or the Paul-Lawler
incident.
Surveys
show a competitive race. Gallrein pulled ahead of Massie by 8 percentage points
in a Quantus Insights poll released Wednesday, after the incumbent narrowly led
earlier surveys. But a Big Data Poll released Friday showed Massie up by 1
point.
The slim
margins show Trump’s imprimatur and the outside spending it unlocked have
elevated the first-time federal candidate into a formidable contender.
Michael
Antonopoulos, who is advising Gallrein’s campaign, knocked Massie in a
statement, saying the representative made the choice to poke the president in
the eye every day, oppose his agenda, and take campaign cash from Obama, Biden,
and Harris donors. Kentucky is fed up with Thomas Massie’s act and is ready to
call in the Navy SEAL.”
But even
Massie’s detractors acknowledge it will be difficult to pick off an incumbent —
particularly one with entrenched support in a district that mirrors his
libertarian streak.
“If he
wins, the battle will continue,” said Sam Markstein, the RJC’s national
political director. “But we do not expect that to be the case. We expect to win
on Tuesday.”
Sem comentários:
Enviar um comentário