Down and
then out in Paris and London? Why Starmer isn’t the only one with a popularity
problem
European
leaders are facing a coordinated wave of domestic unpopularity because the post-pandemic,
post-Ukraine war "holiday from history" has ended, leaving them to
deliver painful economic truths to frustrated electorates. The headline
reference—inspired by a Guardian analysis—highlights that British Prime Minister
Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron are both suffering from
historical lows in public approval.
The
structural realities behind this widespread democratic discontent across Paris,
London, and the broader continent outline why this popularity deficit is a
European-wide trend.
The Data:
A Continent of Net-Negative Leaders
Domestic
polling across the major European powers demonstrates that voter anger is
systemic, rather than tied to a single party or leader's personality. [1]
|
Leader |
Approval |
Disapproval |
Net
Favourability |
Key
Context |
|
|
United
Kingdom |
Keir
Starmer |
~24% |
~68% |
-45% |
Facing
intense pressure after devastating 2026 local elections. |
|
France |
Emmanuel
Macron |
~23% |
~72% |
-49% |
Plummeted
amid pension backlash and a rising far-right. |
|
Germany |
Friedrich
Merz |
~30% |
~73% |
-43% |
Inherited
a deeply fractured, economically stagnant political climate. |
|
Spain |
Pedro
Sánchez |
~30% |
~61% |
-31% |
Bogged
down by highly polarizing coalition politics. |
1.
London: The Cost of Overpromising
In the UK, Keir Starmer’s center-left Labour government won a
massive majority in 2024, billed as a return to technocratic stability.
However, his net favorability has plummeted to -45%. The Delivery
Deficit: Voters feel the government has failed to rescue deteriorating
public services or adequately ease the grinding cost of living crisis.
- The Vetting Scandal: Personal popularity took
further hits following high-profile domestic controversies, notably the
Peter Mandelson security vetting scandal.
- Party Civil War: Following catastrophic local
council election losses where Labour shed over 1,200 seats, Starmer faces
open internal revolt, with dozens of his own MPs calling on him to step
down.
2. Paris:
The Elitism Backlash
Across the
English Channel, French President Emmanuel Macron is enduring an even harsher
domestic environment, with his approval frequently bottoming out between 16%
and 18% in domestic French polling.
- The EU vs. France Divide: Paradoxically, Eurobarometer surveys rank Macron as the most popular
international statesman outside of France due to his robust
geopolitical stances.
- Domestic Fracture: Domestically, French voters
heavily penalize him for structural pension changes, perceptions of
centralized elitism, and economic stagnation.
- The Far-Right Surge: Macron’s centrist bloc has
fractured, allowing right-wing populists like Jordan Bardella and Marine
Le Pen to dominate domestic approval charts.
3. The
Pan-European Problem: Delivering Bad News
As think
tanks like the Europa Center point out, Western leaders are caught in a
structural trap. Global turmoil—including the ongoing war in Ukraine,
fracturing supply chains, and green transition costs—requires heads of state to
implement deeply unpopular, painful domestic choices. Electorates, exhausted by
sustained inflation, are punishing incumbents regardless of political ideology.
The
Exception: Denmark
The rare
exceptions across Europe prove the rule. In Denmark, Prime Minister Mette
Frederiksen has managed to stabilize her popularity by combining a strict
stance on immigration with long-term energy independent planning (with 80% of
Danish electricity coming from renewables). This has allowed Denmark's economy
to grow by 2% to 3% while shielding its population from the worst of Europe's
broader energy shock.
For leaders
in Paris and London, lacking that economic insulation means bearing the full
brunt of voter fury.
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