Is Trump growing “unpredictability,” a sign of mental health decline?

 

Is Trump growing “unpredictability,” a sign of mental health decline?

Whether Donald Trump’s increased unpredictability in 2025–2026 signifies a decline in mental health is a subject of intense debate, with some experts arguing it suggests underlying cognitive issues while others attribute it to his established personality and political style.

 

Concerns of Mental Health Decline (2025–2026 Observations)

Expert Analysis: Several psychologists, including Dr. John Gartner, have publicly argued that Trump shows "unmistakable signs" of dementia, citing progressive deterioration in memory, speech patterns, and impulse control.

Erratic Behavior & Memory: Reports from 2025 noted confused behavior, such as rambling about unrelated topics (e.g., sharks and boats), fabricating stories, and displaying disorientation.

Increased Paranoia & Disinhibition: Observers have noted an intensification of his pre-existing narcissistic traits, including heightened paranoia—seeing enemies everywhere—and a, reduction in impulse control, leading to chaotic decision-making.

Speech and Motor Skills: Observers have highlighted "phonemic paraphasia" (struggling to finish words) and a strange gait, which are listed as potential indicators of cognitive decline.

 

Alternative Explanations & Perspective

Long-Standing Personality: Supporters and some analysts argue that Trump's behavior is not a new decline but rather a continuation of his established, combative, and mercurial, "ADHD-like" style.

"Sanewashing" Debate: Some critics argue that the media has "sanewashed" Trump's behavior, making his erratic actions seem more coherent than they are, while defenders suggest his opponents are exaggerating, similar to debates over Joe Biden's health in 2024.

Political Calculation: Some observers suggest his unconventional actions are deliberate attempts to dominate the narrative and keep opponents off-balance, rather than evidence of cognitive impairment.

 

Context on Diagnosing

It is important to note that many mental health professionals have not examined Trump personally, which raises ethical concerns regarding the "Goldwater Rule," which discourages psychiatrists from diagnosing public figures they have not treated. Conversely, some experts argue that the potential "dangerousness" of a political leader makes it an ethical obligation to warn the public based on observed behavior.

In summary, as of early 2026, there is a sharp divide between those who believe Trump is experiencing a significant, accelerated cognitive decline, and those who view his actions as an intensification of his known personality, compounded by the stresses of a second term.