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Oil price
hits wartime high after Trump warns Iran blockade could last ‘months’
Oil
markets spooked as Donald Trump appears willing to maintain the US Navy
blockade and Iran keeps strait of Hormuz all but shut
Mark
Saunokonoko
Wed 29
Apr 2026 22.55 EDT
The price
of Brent oil soared above $126 a barrel on Wednesday, its highest level since
2022, after Donald Trump warned the US blockade of Iranian ports could last
months and peace talks remained stalled.
Surging
more than 13% in 24 hours, Brent crude hit a record price since the war began
on 28 February. Not since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine has Brent topped
$120, with the price then peaking at $139.
Oil
markets have been spooked this week as Donald Trump appeared willing to
maintain the US Navy blockade of Iranian ports, with Iran responding by keeping
the strait of Hormuz all but shut to other oil tankers.
US-Iran
talks set for Islamabad in Pakistan over the weekend failed to materialise, so
the stalemate grinds on.
Trump on
Wednesday said Iran “better get smart soon” and in a meeting with oil
executives discussed what steps could be taken to “continue the current
blockade for months if needed,” according to a White House official.
US
officials hope the blockade will force Iran to cap its oil wells and shutter
production once its oil facilities, such as Kharg Island, have filled to the
brim. Analysts are unsure how long that could take.
“The
blockade is somewhat more effective than the bombing,” Trump told Axios. “They
are choking like a stuffed pig.”
The war
is about to enter its 10th week, despite Trump’s initial projections of a 4-6
week conflict before Tehran would buckle. Global oil supplies drop by nearly 20
million barrels every day the strait is choked off.
Oxford
Economics warned in a blog post that a six-month impasse in the strait could
send oil prices as high as $190 by August.
The
economist Paul Krug, a former New York Times columnist, said he believed most
analysts have been “far too sanguine” about the effects of a prolonged Hormuz
crisis.
“In my
view, a full-on global recession is more likely than not if the strait remains
closed for, say, another three months, which seems all too possible,” he wrote
on his Substack on 20 April.
In 2008,
during the global financial crisis, oil surged to record highs, with crude
briefly hitting about $147. Two weeks after the US and Israel launched their
first strikes on Iran, Tehran said the world needed to prepare for $200 barrels
of oil.
Beyond
ramping up the cost of petrol, the effects of the supply shock have cascaded
through the global economy, causing inflation to rise and sparking some fears
of a looming global recession.
US
inflation soared in March, with prices up 3.3% over the year. Across the
Atlantic, Britain is facing a £35bn economic hit and the risk of a recession in
2026 because of the war, a thinktank warned.
While
Congress was questioning the US defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, over the war’s
rising costs and strategy, Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, spent the
day making phone calls to India, Kenya and Poland, trying to shore up support
in his country’s staring contest with the US.
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