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Giorgia
Meloni clung to her relationship with Trump – now it’s starting to look like a
liability
Riccardo
Alcaro
The
Italian PM has walked a tightrope between Europe and the US. But the Iran war –
and Trump’s attacks on her – have changed everything
Tue 28
Apr 2026 06.00 CEST
The news
last week that the Trump administration sounded out Fifa, world football’s
governing body, about replacing Iran with Italy at this year’s World Cup jolted
insiders and pundits on the beautiful game. It has also cast fresh light on the
unusual and evolving relationship between Donald Trump and Giorgia Meloni.
In recent
weeks, the Italian prime minister’s standing as the darling of the US right has
been imperilled by an unexpected rift with the Oval Office. Trump dramatically
distanced himself from his Italian ally over her refusal to join US attacks on
Iran in an interview. “I’m shocked at her. I thought she had courage, but I was
wrong,” the US president told the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera.
The
reported US approach to Fifa – since ruled out by Italian ministers – may have
signalled a wish by Trump to mend fences with the Italian leader.
Meloni’s
relationship with Trump has never been primarily about policy. It has been
grounded instead in politics, ideology and geopolitics – a triad that has
defined both its strengths and its limits.
Politically,
Meloni has leveraged her proximity to Trump while maintaining pragmatic ties
with EU leaders. This dual track has enhanced her international reputation as a
responsible rightwing leader and a go-to figure in Europe. She has sought to
present herself as someone capable of bridging worlds – aligned with the
nationalist conservative wave emanating from Washington yet credible and
constructive in the European mainstream.
Ideologically,
Meloni and Trump both subscribe to a civilisational vision of the west as a
community of nations bound together by common history, religion and cultural –
if not ethnic – homogeneity. Geopolitically, her approach stems from the
conviction that, in an era of great upheaval and competition between powers,
European countries still have a strategic imperative to remain close to the US
regardless of who sits in the Oval Office. Adaptation, rather than complaint,
has been Meloni’s guiding principle. This explains why she consistently
refrained from confrontation every time Trump lashed out at Europe.
The
problem is that her proximity to Trump has yielded few tangible advantages for
Italy – apart, perhaps, from some clemency on US imports of Italian pasta.
Where Italy has conceded to Trump – on tariffs or higher defence spending – it
has done so alongside the rest of Europe. Where it has resisted US pressure –
on Ukraine or Greenland – it has done so through coordination with EU partners,
not bilateral leverage with Washington.
The war
with Iran has laid bare the strategic limitations of this approach. Its
economic consequences have been felt directly by Italians at the petrol pump.
The war has also reinforced a broader perception among Italians that not only
is Trump seeking to subordinate European allies but he is also making the
international system structurally insecure.
Meloni’s
balancing act has therefore become increasingly difficult, especially in the
wake of last month’s domestic setback in the referendum on judicial reform, in
which her association with Trump proved a liability. Having initially refused
to condemn the war in the Middle East, she eventually stated publicly that it
was not in Italy’s interest.
Then came
the breaking point. Trump’s personal attack on Pope Leo XIV, after the
pontiff’s criticism of the US administration’s war on Iran, left Meloni with
little room for manoeuvre. For an Italian conservative and self-styled Catholic
leader, silence was not an option.
Even then
she avoided direct confrontation. Her response was measured: a defence of the
dignity of the pope and a statement that the president’s words were
“unacceptable”. Most likely she hoped she could create some distance without
provoking a rupture. But Trump’s repeated personal insults towards her
transformed the situation into a political headache.
Short
term, the rift may even offer her political benefits. Meloni has emerged as a
defender of the Italian national interest and of the Catholic church, even
attracting a degree of solidarity from the opposition, which has so far failed
to capitalise on her closeness to Trump. Longer term, it is not going to be so
easy for Meloni. Her most viable course now appears to be a renewed emphasis on
pragmatic relations in Europe. Her participation in the recent Paris summit on
the strait of Hormuz – during which she made a point of physically embracing
Emmanuel Macron, the bete noire of the Italian far right – signals as much.
At the
same time, she will try to mend fences with Washington. Had Trump been less
explicit in his displeasure, this recalibration might have proceeded quietly.
The fact that the idea of Italy replacing Iran at the World Cup came from an
Italian national working for Trump, US special envoy Paolo Zampolli, may be
seen as an indirect olive branch to Meloni. But the lukewarm reaction in Italy
shows the risk of trying to mend ties in such an unorthodox way. It could
easily be seen as an undignified act of contrition by Meloni, costing her some
of the domestic political capital she has gained by standing up to a US
president who is deeply unpopular in Italy.
Meloni
thus finds herself at a crossroads. She can lean more decisively towards Europe
or seek to re-engage with the US on Trump’s terms. Her past suggests a
reluctance to make such binary choices, but circumstances may soon force her
hand. If Europe continues to be excluded from key decisions affecting its
security, as with Ukraine, and its economic stability, as with Iran, the
association with Trump could become an albatross around her neck at a critical
moment in her career.
She will
enter campaign season – the next general election in Italy is scheduled for
December 2027 at the latest – with no major reform attached to her government,
a sputtering economy and a deteriorating security environment for which Trump
bears significant responsibility in the eyes of many Italians.
The
tension between Meloni the party leader and Meloni the statesperson is no
longer abstract. It may become untenable. The question is not whether she can
continue to balance the two but for how much longer.
Riccardo
Alcaro is head of research at IAI, Istituto Affari Internazionali in Rome
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