The
Middle East is drifting leaderless to catastrophe. War is just an airstrike
away
Simon
Tisdall
From
Netanyahu to Nasrallah, the region’s politicians are flailing. Will no one stop
the lunacy?
Sat 22 Jun
2024 17.00 BST
When
Benjamin Netanyahu flies to Washington next month, he would be advised to avoid
British airspace and airports. As a founding party of the international
criminal court (ICC), the UK could find itself legally and morally obliged to
detain Israel’s prime minister should he stray into its territory.
That’s
because the ICC’s chief prosecutor is seeking a warrant for Netanyahu’s arrest
for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza, where more than
37,000 people, mostly civilians, have died since the 7 October Hamas terrorist
attacks in southern Israel, which killed about 1,200 people.
Sadly, the
prospect of Netanyahu being led away in cuffs remains remote. It’s probably too
much to hope that Keir Starmer, as Britain’s newly installed prime minister,
would try to intercept this fugitive from justice. In its election manifesto,
Labour strongly backs the ICC, which relies on member states to enforce
arrests.
But when it
comes to Gaza, there are plainly pragmatic limits to Labour’s devotion to
justice for Palestinians, notwithstanding overwhelming evidence of criminality
and revelations that Israel’s spy agencies tried to subvert the ICC. Netanyahu
is also flouting an international court of justice order to halt army
operations in Rafah.
British
double standards, not to say hypocrisy, over the atrocious behaviour of
Israel’s leadership are as nothing to that of the US Congress. The reason
Netanyahu will soon be on his travels is an invitation to address a joint
session of the Senate and the House of Representatives on 24 July.
This
platform comes courtesy of hard-right, pro-Trump Republicans who count
Netanyahu an honorary member of their cult. How galling this must be for
President Joe Biden, who rushed to Jerusalem after 7 October, put his arm
around Netanyahu’s shoulder, and generously promised support.
Biden is
paying a high election-year price for an ill-judged display of unquestioning
solidarity. Younger voters are appalled by the Gaza carnage, much of it caused
by US-supplied bombs. Far from showing gratitude, Israel’s leader obstructs
US-brokered peace efforts and picks fights with his benefactor.
Netanyahu
attacked Biden last week for supposedly withholding arms deliveries while
presumptuously casting himself as a latter-day Winston Churchill, demanding
“the tools to finish the job”. The White House was furious. In fact, only
“wide-area effect” 2,000lb US-made bombs, which kill indiscriminately, have
been held back. Washington is increasingly concerned that Netanyahu, more
dependent than ever on racist extremists and religious Zionists after the
collapse of his unity war cabinet, is spoiling for a no-holds-barred fight with
Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon after months of skirmishing.
Many in
Israel share the US’s apprehension, accusing the prime minister of perpetuating
the Gaza war to stay in power and out of jail (he faces domestic criminal
charges in addition to the ICC). Invading Lebanon would be a logical next step
in this mad progression.
Even as
Biden’s special envoy was in Beirut and Jerusalem trying to prevent escalation,
Israel’s foreign minister, Israel Katz, was warning that Israel Defense Forces’
(IDF) plans for full-scale war against Hezbollah are complete and a decision is
“very close”. Katz vowed Hezbollah’s forces, though more numerous and better
armed than Hamas, would be “destroyed and Lebanon will be severely beaten”.
These are the same sort of dangerously unrealistic promises made before the
Gaza campaign.
Given what
some Israeli commentators see as the IDF’s worst wartime performance, such
threats are nevertheless terrifying. If a repeat of the Lebanon invasions of
2006 and 1982 does occur, huge civilian casualties and suffering are a
certainty.
It’s often
said that Hezbollah, despite its intensified rocket barrages into northern
Israel last week, does not seek all-out conflict, and neither does its sponsor,
Iran. If there’s a Gaza ceasefire, tensions will ease. But such analysis offers
limited reassurance. Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s chief bullyboy,
issued dire threats of his own last week. Like Netanyahu, Nasrallah lacks both
a plan to end the violence and a strategic vision for a postwar future.
Meanwhile, his bosses in Tehran are preoccupied with choosing a new president.
The death
last month of the hardline incumbent, Ebrahim Raisi, created an opportunity for
Iran to reconsider its aggressive policy of regional “forward defence” using
Iraqi, Syrian, Lebanese and Yemeni proxies to extend its influence, protect its
borders and pressure Israel and its allies. That opportunity is slipping away
as six officially approved and vetted candidates vie to replace Raisi on 28
June. Only one, Masoud Pezeshkian, is considered a reformist. His long-shot
candidacy gives the false impression of an open contest. The favourite is a
veteran conservative, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf – the supposed choice of Iran’s
hardline supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. If he wins, Iran will continue
down the blind alley of confrontation with Israel and the US on everything from
Palestine to nuclear arms.
Another
flashpoint could draw in the US. “The Syrian theatre risks sparking an even
more deadly direct conflict between Israel and Iran,” the European Council on
Foreign Relations suggests, pointing to 170 attacks against US bases in Syria
and Iraq since 7 October, Israel’s bombing of Iran’s consulate in Damascus, and
Tehran’s retaliation.
A final
descent into chaos may be only one random airstrike or assassination away.
After nine merciless months in Gaza, rarely has the risk of all-engulfing,
region-wide war seemed higher. Yet if it happens, it will probably be more by
accident than by design.
Who can halt
this anarchic, rudderless drift towards catastrophe? The Arab states are
ineffectual or disengaged. Russia plays spoiler, China is not serious, Iran’s
intentions are malign. Hamas hides behind civilians, the EU and UN are
sidelined, Biden is flailing.
And in
Israel, Netanyahu is living, daily proof of a larger truth: everywhere, able
leaders of integrity and vision are fatally lacking.
Simon Tisdall is the Observer’s Foreign
Affairs Commentator
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