Only connecting with voters can stop Europe’s
populist tide
There’s a growing backlash rooted in overall
desperation, compounded by many voters’ perception that their grievances are
being shrugged off.
FEBRUARY
19, 2024 4:00 AM CET
BY JAMIE
DETTMER
Jamie
Dettmer is opinion editor at POLITICO Europe.
https://www.politico.eu/article/european-elections-voting-populism-connecting-with-voters/
Much has
been written about why voters seem likely to turn to populists in greater
numbers and shun established mainstream parties in forthcoming elections —
including those for the European Parliament.
Commentators
have been citing almost everything as the cause — from inflation and the
cost-of-living squeeze to immigration and rising income disparity, from
identity politics and white male resentment to the disorienting pace of
cultural and social change, and fury about shabby corruption in parts of Europe
and Latin America.
But while
all these may well be factors to varying degrees, they’re all part and parcel
of something arguably much bigger, something more elemental: A backlash rooted
in overall desperation, compounded by many voters’ perception — especially in
rural heartlands and small towns — that their grievances are shrugged off. Not
only that, but when they have the temerity to raise them, they’re patronized by
rarefied politicians with disengaged talk of instruments, competencies and
trilogues, further adding to the disconnect.
These
voters feel they’re only taken seriously when they take to the streets in
sufficient numbers, pressing their case by clogging highways, choking capitals
and city centers. Only then do incumbent politicians start running scared —
like with the yellow vest agitation in France.
Take, for
example, the farmer protests that have spread like wildfire across the
Continent in recent weeks. Farmers in Poland blocked cheaper grain arriving
from neighboring Ukraine, their counterparts in Germany jammed highways for a
week to protest net-zero reductions in subsidies for diesel, and French farmers
besieged Paris to vent against cheap food imports and the forest of regulations
they’re forced to navigate. Italy, Spain and Romania, among others, have seen
similar unheaval.
“It takes
all the running you can do, to keep in the same place,” the Red Queen tells
Alice in Lewis Carroll’s “Through the Looking-Glass.” And indeed, many farmers
feel they’ve been shoved through the looking glass. In fact, in the case of
Europe’s farmers, the faster they run the quicker they seem to go backward.
While most
sectors saw sharp wage increases between 2022 and 2023, farming did not.
Rather, the average income of European small farmers fell by 12–22 percent,
according to German multinational financial services company Allianz. “Farmers
have insufficient bargaining power. At the same time, they are faced with
increasing regulation and rising costs for energy, fertilizers, transport,
biodiversity, water quality, climate and farm workers,” noted Allianz’s Johan
Geeroms.
Add to that
the fact that farmers are being asked to reconcile the impossible: “On the one
hand, greening and, on the other, opening up to a globalized world that is not
subject to the same strict environmental rules everywhere,” Geeroms said.
Not that
the European Commission advertises all that. Instead, it blithely chose to lead
an analysis it published last November with this: “Farm income per worker has
grown steadily over time,” noting it was 56 percent higher in 2021 compared to
2013.
And maybe
so, but that’s mainly a reflection of the dramatic decrease in farm employment
and the relentless disappearance of small- and medium-sized farms — which is
only adding to rural areas hollowing out. Unable to cope with the challenges,
over 4 million farms disappeared from 2005 to 2016.
Moreover,
in 2019, a parliamentary policy department crowed there had been an “impressive
30% decrease in the last fifteen years” in agricultural “work units,” falling
from 13.1 million in 2003 to 9.1 million in 2018. Though maybe not so
impressive for the millions of farm workers who lost their jobs to the
increasing dominance of massive factory farms owned by large-scale agribusiness
conglomerates, which sweep up around 80 percent of direct payment subsidies.
Those vast farms can pay their workers higher salaries.
Addressing
the issue, last month, the Commission finally launched its “Strategic Dialogue
on the future of EU agriculture.” And when announcing the exercise in
September, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said its intention was to
foster “more dialogue and less polarisation” and involve everyone “from small
traditional producers of organic food to large wheat producers.” The
discussions should examine how to support rural communities and ensure a fair
standard of living for them, as well as support agriculture “within the
boundaries of our planet and its ecosystem,” she announced.
Many small
farmers would say such a discussion is long overdue, but they also remain
skeptical they will be listened to — or whether it will improve their lot if
they are. And their doubts wouldn’t be misplaced.
Hence, the
conclusion some are drawing that it is protests that get results.
Daunted by
the spread of the farm protests, the Commission has already dropped key
passages from a new 2040 climate proposal on cutting greenhouse gas pollution,
excising recommendations for changes in citizen behavior, like eating less
meat, as well as a push to end fossil fuel subsidies. Several national
governments have also fallen over themselves to placate farmers — though
whether they’ll continue to do so after elections is another matter.
Predictably,
and understandably, climate activists are railing against these U-turns,
bewailing the backtracking. For example, while acknowledging the plight of
farmers, environmental activist and commentator Isabel Schatzschneider, drew attention to how the “far right” has
been stoking the agitation with falsehoods and misinformation.
“Protecting
European democracy requires a resolute stand against the far right and its
alliance with aggravated farmers. Only by prioritizing climate action can
Europe hope to safeguard its values and protect itself from the insidious
influence of far-right ideologies, which thrive on misinformation, hatred and a
blatant disregard for the environmental challenges that endanger us all,” she
wrote.
And caving
is, indeed, risky — it smacks of panic and the same wretched opportunism
populists display all too frequently. But it’s disingenuous to disparage
farmers as some unwitting agents of the hard right — it’s also exactly the type
of rhetoric that will boost the populist vote.
So, why
should politicians worry this much about a sector that represents such a tiny
share of the EU’s economy? For one, it’s because small farms create jobs and
wealth for their communities, helping them thrive and reducing pressure on
young people to leave. If eased into it and assisted they could become climate
sensitive.
Farming
also has an outsized electoral impact. Last year’s Dutch elections dramatically
demonstrated this when the the Farmer-Citizen Movement — founded less than four
years prior — won the most seats in the senate. And Prime Minister Giorgia
Meloni unbuckling Italy’s so-called red belt — formerly the country’s most
reliably left-leaning regions — had much to do with rural voters feeling
overlooked as well.
Finally,
farmers are canaries in the coal mine. Unheeding them and their communities is
reflective of a snootiness that many of those who are left behind or are
falling behind elsewhere sense is the prevalent attitude among established
politicians. The rush to net zero, and the subsequent failure to count and
moderate its costs for already struggling households, is exhausting voters.
As this
column has noted before, dismissive centrist politicians need to connect — not
patronize or disparage. But all too often, they can’t see the wood for the
trilogues.
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