Analysis
Netanyahu uses hostage rescue to justify Rafah
strikes as his support dwindles
Peter
Beaumont
Reports of a fractured relationship with Joe Biden and
collapse in public support are isolating Israeli PM
Mon 12 Feb
2024 15.07 GMT
Israel’s
prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, is deploying the successful rescue of two
Israeli hostages to justify continued military pressure on Rafah, even as
Israel has come under intense international pressure not to launch a ground
offensive against the southern Gaza city.
In the
immediate aftermath of the rescue, which took place in the early hours of
Monday, Netanyahu said it demonstrated the need for continuing pressure on
Hamas in order to secure the release of the remaining hostages.
Others,
however, may draw different lessons from the raid, which stands as a grim
metaphor for Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza.
The Israeli
military has rescued just three hostages in more than four months of fighting,
fewer than the number of hostages who have been killed in Israeli efforts to
free them.
Instead,
the vast majority of hostages who have been released have had their freedom
secured in negotiations with Hamas, with more than 100 freed during a week-long
ceasefire last year. More than 30 more are confirmed to have died in captivity,
with fears for the lives of at least 20 others.
At least 67
Palestinians were killed during the raid, according to the Gaza ministry of
health, as Israeli aircraft bombarded the neighbourhood with bombs, and the
high death toll will be seen as telling its own grim story in the ratio of dead
to rescued. It also underlines the enormous risk to civilian life in the event
of an Israeli offensive against Rafah.
Amos Harel,
writing in Haaretz, an Israeli newspaper, suggested it was unlikely that Hamas
would not learn from the rescue to ensure it was not repeated.
He said:
“It was a rare achievement … it will be hard to repeat this success despite the
pressure that the army is exerting on Hamas, which will certainly learn from
the experience by identifying weak points in the rescue that it can exploit and
order its units holding the rest of the Israeli hostages to be more vigilant.”
The Israeli
threat to launch a ground offensive against Rafah, where more than 1.3 million
displaced Palestinians are sheltering in a city with a prewar population of
about 300,000, defines the bigger picture: one where international patience
with Netanyahu is fast running out.
With almost
30,000 Palestinians killed since the campaign began after the 7 October Hamas
attacks, mounting international anger with Netanyahu is boiling into the open.
Confirming
other reporting last week about the fraught relationship with the US president,
NBC reported on Monday that Joe Biden had described Netanyahu as an “asshole”
and “this guy” on three separate occasions. “He just feels that enough is
enough. This (referring to war) needs to stop,” one source told the channel.
At the
centre of the growing friction between Biden and Netanyahu has been Netanyahu’s
refusal to contemplate an end to the fighting and his rejection of a two-state
solution.
While the
White House last week denied a report in Politico that Biden had called
Netanyahu “a bad fucking guy”, the accumulation of recent reports of Biden’s
private remarks points to a relationship at rock bottom despite regular calls
between the two leaders.
Last week
the Biden administration issued an executive order requiring countries
receiving US arms to provide written assurances that they are not breaking
international law, seen by some as aimed at Israel, a major recipient of US
weapons.
That
announcement followed US sanctions against four Israeli settlers implicated in
acts of violence against Palestinians in the occupied West Bank.
Discontent
over Israel’s policies, enacted by Netanyahu’s government that is held up by
two far-right parties, has also been seen elsewhere.
On Monday
the British government issued its own sanctions against four settlers accused
of violence while, in perhaps the most significant move, a Dutch court issued a
ban on the export of parts for Israeli F-35s over concern they could be used to
commit war crimes.
Coming on
top of the complaints against Israel’s conduct in the war, including an
allegation by South Africa of “genocide” at the international court of justice,
the politics surrounding a large-scale Israeli assault on Rafah have become
more complicated by the day, explaining why Monday’s rescue mission – although
a small moment of limited significance in the wider context of the war – has
taken on the meaning that it has.
Faced with
collapsing public support for continuing in office, Netanyahu finds himself in
a bind, amid evidence that after months of war governments are prepared to take
concrete and consequential steps, even if they are small for now.
Set against
that is the knowledge in Netanyahu’s inner circle that an end to the war in all
likelihood will mean the end of his political career, a reckoning that an
assault on Rafah is now unlikely to deflect even if it resulted in the killing
or capture of Yahya Sinwar, Hamas’s leader in Gaza, and other senior figures
from the militant group.
While in
the past Netanyahu has used the pretext of political pressure from Washington
in particular as an excuse for avoiding difficult decisions, it is far from
clear whether that logic still holds amid his preoccupation with survival.
As
Netanyahu ponders his next move – whether to attack Rafah in force – the rescue
of two hostages is at best a momentary diversion amid the continuing bloodshed
and Israel’s increasing isolation.
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