Barely 10% of Europeans believe Ukraine can still
defeat Russia, finds poll
Exclusive: Shift in sentiment requires EU politicians
to focus on defining an acceptable peace, say authors
Jon Henley
Europe correspondent
@jonhenley
Wed 21 Feb
2024 05.00 GMT
Support for
Ukraine among Europeans remains broad, but nearly two years after the
full-scale invasion barely 10% now believe it can defeat Russia, according to
an EU-wide survey – with some form of “compromise settlement” seen as the most
likely end point.
The shift
in sentiment – this time last year, more Europeans than not said Ukraine must
regain all its lost territory – will demand that politicians take a more
“realistic” approach that focuses on defining what an acceptable peace must
actually mean, the report’s authors argue.
“In order
to make the case for continued European support for Ukraine, EU leaders will
need to change how they talk about the war,” said co-author Mark Leonard of the
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), which commissioned the polling.
Most
Europeans “are desperate to prevent a Russian victory” but do not believe Kyiv
can win militarily, Leonard said, meaning that the most convincing argument for
an increasingly sceptical public was that continuing aid “could lead to a
sustainable, negotiated peace that favours Kyiv – rather than a victory for
Putin”.
The January
polling in 12 EU member states – including France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, the
Netherlands, Poland, Spain and Sweden – found that Ukraine’s stalled
counteroffensive, growing fears of a US policy shift and the prospect of a
second US presidential term for Donald Trump were fuelling pessimism about the
war’s outcome.
It was
carried out before Ukraine’s retreat at the weekend from the eastern town of
Avdiivka, which handed Russia its most significant military victory since the
capture of Bakhmut by Wagner troops in May 2023. Russia launched its full-scale
invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022.
The report,
Wars and Elections: How European leaders can maintain public support for
Ukraine, found that only one in 10 Europeans across the 12 countries surveyed
believed Ukraine would win on the battlefield, while twice as many (20%)
predicted a Russian victory. Even in the most optimistic member states surveyed
– Poland, Sweden and Portugal – fewer than one in five (17%) believed Kyiv
could prevail.
In all
countries, the polling showed, the most common opinion, shared by an average of
37% of respondents, was that the war would end in a compromise settlement –
although some countries were keener on that outcome than others.
In Sweden
(50%), Portugal (48%) and Poland (47%), respondents were more likely to say
Europe should help Ukraine fight back, while in Hungary (64%), Greece (59%),
Italy (52%) and Austria (49%), they preferred pushing Kyiv to accept a
settlement. In France, Germany, the Netherlands and Spain, opinions were more
evenly divided.
The polling
yielded evidence that many Europeans increasingly considered Russia’s war
against Ukraine to be of direct concern to them, with 33% saying it had a
greater impact on their country – and on Europe (29%) – than the war in the
Middle East (compared to 5% who said the opposite on both counts).
The
possible return of Trump to the White House was broadly seen as bad news, with
56% of respondents across the 12 countries surveyed saying they would be very
or fairly disappointed if the former president was re-elected.
The only
exception was Hungary, where 27% of respondents said they would be pleased by
Trump’s return and 31% disappointed. Similarly, supporters of only one major
political party – Hungary’s Fidesz – were hopeful of a Trump victory.
Among other
far-right parties previously expressing support for Trump, only about a third
of voters for Germany’s AfD, Austria’s FPÖ or Brothers of Italy said they would
welcome his return, with pro-Trump sentiment even weaker among supporters of
France’s National Rally and Poland’s Law and Justice.
If the US
were to halt military aid to Ukraine under a Trump presidency, 41% of Europeans
said that the EU should either increase its support or maintain it at its
current level, while 33% would prefer the EU to follow the US lead.
On the
second anniversary of Russia’a invasion of Ukraine, the report’s authors said
Europeans were not in a “heroic mood”, or even optimistic about the situation.
But, they said, Europeans’ commitment to preventing a Russian victory had not
moved.
The
challenge for western policymakers, they argued, would be to successfully
address the dichotomy between falling public confidence about how the war would
end, and the desire to maintain support in order to prevent a Russian victory.
“As Europe
and the US enter election season, the quest to define peace will be a critical
battleground,” the authors wrote. “Leaders will need to find a new language
that resonates with current sentiment.”
Ivan
Krastev, the report’s other co-author, said the biggest danger was that Trump –
and the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, who has hinted that he is open to
negotiations on his terms – “try to portray Ukraine and its backers as the
‘forever war’ party, while they claim the mantle of ‘peace,’”
A Russian
victory “is not peace”, said Krastev, who is chair of the Sofia-based Centre
for Liberal Strategies thinktank. “If the price of ending the war is turning
Ukraine into a no man’s land, this will be a defeat not only for Kyiv but for
Europe and its security.”
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