Analysis
Geert Wilders’ victory confirms upward trajectory
of far right in Europe
Jon Henley
Europe
correspondent
Dutch general election results show how populist and
far-right parties are advancing into political mainstream
Europe live
– latest updates
Fri 24 Nov
2023 06.00 CET
Geert
Wilders’ shock victory in the Dutch general election confirms the upward
trajectory of Europe’s populist and far-right parties, which – with the
occasional setback – are continuing their steady march into the mainstream.
There is no
guarantee that Wilders, whose anti-Islam Party for Freedom (PVV) won 37 seats
in Wednesday’s ballot – more than twice its 2021 total – will be able to form a
government with a majority in the Netherlands’ 150-seat parliament.
Even if he
can, the coalition process of endless compromise and concession by three, four
or more parties means the most extreme parts of his manifesto, from banning the
Qur’an to holding a Nexit referendum, are not about to become government
policy.
But there
is now a fair chance that a party shunned by the mainstream for more than a
decade because of its radically nativist views could, some time next year, join
the ranks of the far-right parties advancing across much of Europe.
From
Helsinki to Rome and Berlin to Brussels, far-right parties are climbing
steadily up the polls, shaping the policies of the mainstream right to reflect
their nativist and populist platforms, and occupying select ministerial roles
in coalition governments.
Giorgia
Meloni, whose party has neofascist roots, heads Italy’s farthest-right
government since the second world war. The far right is part of the ruling
coalition in Finland and, in exchange for key policy concessions, propping up
another in Sweden.
In Austria,
the FPÖ is well ahead in the polls less than a year from the next election,
while in Germany, the far-right AfD has surged from 10% to more than 21%,
trailing only the centre-right CDU, and this year won its first district
council elections.
If
presidential elections were held today in France, polls suggest Marine Le Pen
of the far-right National Rally – who scored a record 41.46% last time around –
would win. Far-right Flemish nationalists are set to make big gains in the
Belgian elections in June.
Little
wonder that the continent’s far-right leaders, from Le Pen to Hungary’s Viktor
Orbán, Italy’s Matteo Salvini, the AfD’s Alice Weidel and Vlaams Belang’s Tom
Van Grieken, rushed on Wednesday night to proffer Wilders their
congratulations.
The far
right has suffered some setbacks this year: in Spain’s parliamentary election
in July, Vox saw its vote share drop from the 15% it won in 2019 to 12%,
slashing the number of seats it holds in parliament from 52 to 33.
In Poland,
the ruling nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party finished first in October
elections but – while it is trying to form a majority – has no viable path to
government after a three-way opposition alliance led by Donald Tusk won an
overall majority.
But in
Slovakia, Robert Fico – if not far right, certainly populist, and an avowed
Orbán admirer – won September’s election, fulfilled his campaign promise to
halt military aid to Ukraine, and has raised rule-of-law concerns with attacks
on the press.
Continental
analysts also cite Britain’s Conservatives as being under populist, far-right
influence, noting the extreme nationalist sloganeering of the Brexit campaign
and the government’s ferocious rhetoric on immigration and the “war on woke”.
Analysts
note that every far-right party is different, as are the cultures and political
systems in which they operate. But across the continent, populist and far-right
parties have been rising steadily – with the odd interruption – for several
decades.
A range of
factors is driving their advance. For a long time, opposition to immigration,
Islam and the EU were the far right’s core causes. More recently, culture wars,
minority rights, and the climate crisis and the sacrifice needed to combat it
have joined the list.
Their
appeal has been further enhanced by a deep cost of living crisis flowing from
pandemic recovery and Russia’s war on Ukraine, by rapid and confusing social
and digital change, and – everywhere – by mounting mistrust of mainstream
politicians.
Gradually,
far-right parties have become normalised in a two-way process: as the centre
right has adopted nativist talking points and been willing to cut coalition
deals, far-right parties are moderating some of their more voter-repellent
views.
Much of
Europe’s centre right, for example, is now as hardline on immigration as the
far right – while far-right parties are busy projecting economic discipline,
dialling back on Euroscepticism and downplaying their past support for Russia.
Wilders,
who surfed a wave of anti-immigration sentiment and frustration with successive
mainstream coalitions to his victory, has himself softened his more hardline
anti-Islam language, apparently in hopes of entering a coalition.
Whether or
not he leads the Netherlands’ next government, his performance on Wednesday
night is a reminder that, as the Guardian revealed in September, almost a third
of Europeans now vote for populist, far-right or far-left parties.
Wide
support for anti-establishment politics is continuing to surge across the
continent – and, increasingly, challenging the mainstream.
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