Brussels Playbook: Chinese cry for freedom — Cash
for Kyiv’s metro — Oil cap row
BY JAKOB
HANKE VELA
NOVEMBER
28, 2022 7:08 AM CET
POLITICO
Brussels Playbook
By JAKOB
HANKE VELA
with ZOYA
SHEFTALOVICH
DRIVING THE
DAY: CHINA PROTESTS Share on
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PEOPLE TAKE
TO STREETS: For the first time since 1989, people — particularly university
students — are taking to the streets across China on-mass. What started as
unrest over China’s draconian zero-COVID policies is turning into broader calls
for freedom and against President Xi Jinping’s one-party rule.
How it
started: The protests began in the wake of a fire last Thursday night that
killed 10 people in Ürümqi, the Xinjiang regional capital, in an apartment
block which locals said had become a death trap as a result of harsh,
months-long lockdowns. Across China, police have reportedly barricaded people
in their homes to enforce COVID restrictions.
How
zero-COVID works in practice: The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has refused to
roll out Western-made MRNA vaccines to the population, instead sticking to
less-effective locally made jabs. In any case, vaccine uptake has been
comparatively low, especially among the elderly. Amid fears of coronavirus
overwhelming the health care system, the CCP has dealt with coronavirus
outbreaks by confining millions of people in quarantine facilities or in their
homes for months on end.
What’s
happening on the ground now: Demonstrations have now broken out in Ürümqi,
Nanjing, Wuhan, Guangzhou, Beijing — including at Xi’s alma mater, Tsinghua
University — and Shanghai, where police pepper-sprayed around 300 people on
Saturday night.
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What’s
happening to those who are arrested: BBC journalist Edward Lawrence was
arrested and beaten by Chinese police while covering the Shanghai protests,
before being released several hours later, the BBC said in a statement. In a
video posted on social media, Lawrence is seen being dragged away by police,
yelling for someone to “call the consulate now.” In a post on Twitter
overnight, Lawrence said: “I understand at least one local national was
arrested after trying to stop the police from beating me.”
Watch this
space: These protests a rare display of people’s anger at government repression
and are the biggest show of Chinese public disobedience (outside of Hong Kong)
since the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989, POLITICO’s EU-China correspondent
Stuart Lau writes in to say. As was the case then, many of those protesting now
are students. For Xi Jinping, the protests are especially sensitive, coming so
soon after his accession to a norm-breaking third term as head of the Communist
Party.
Chinese
media has made no mention of the protests. But in a nod to the public
discontent, state news agency Xinhua published commentary calling on officials
to “provide maximum convenience” to the public.
JETTING OFF
FOR BEIJING: The protests have taken EU diplomats and officials by surprise,
some of whom believed the Hong Kong democracy movement had been a last gasp for
freedom. While the police have refrained from extreme violence so far, things
could still turn nasty if the party deems the situation out of control. If that
happens, there’ll be enormous pressure on European Council President Charles
Michel, who’s scheduled a trip to China this Thursday.
Speaking of
Charles Michel: An amused diplomat forwarded Playbook a picture sent to EU
countries by the secretariat of the Council, showing preparations for next
month’s EU-ASEAN summit. It seems Michel’s aides are keen to take a leaf out of
Xi’s playbook: “The personality cult knows no limits,” quipped the diplomat.
See for yourself.
NOW READ
THIS — NATO’S LOOMING FAULT LINE: NATO allies finally agreed earlier this year
that China is a “challenge” — but what that means in practice is anyone’s
guess, Lili Bayer writes.
**On
December 7, POLITICO will unveil the POLITICO 28 list during its annual gala
dinner. Our award-winning event and publication will recognize the 28 most
powerful players driving change and solving problems in European politics,
policy and business for the year 2023. The event will also feature an exclusive
interview with European Parliament President, Roberta Metsola. Register
here.**
RUSSIA’S
WAR ON UKRAINE Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Share on Linkedin Share on Handclap9
EIB SEEKS
TO RENEW KYIV’S METRO: The European Investment Bank and the City of Kyiv will
today sign a memorandum of understanding on investment in Ukraine’s capital and
its surroundings, including a €450 million loan to modernize the city’s metro
and another possible €500 million for its extension, Paola Tamma writes in to
report.
Background:
Kyiv’s metro — made world-famous via images of its tunnels used as bomb
shelters — is highly dependent on Russian supply for rolling stock and spare
parts. Currently, 80 percent of its coaches are Russian-made, with more than
half needing upgrading, maintenance and replacement, according to the EIB.
Cameras out
… for a signing ceremony with EIB Vice President Teresa Czerwińska and Kyiv
Mayor Vitali Klitschko during the Kyiv Investment Forum, taking place today in
Brussels.
RUSSIAN OIL
PRICE CAP ROW: Last Wednesday, the world was expecting to be told the level at
which a G7 price cap on Russian oil would be set. But last-minute wrangling
between EU countries means that a new week dawns with no final confirmation,
and EU ambassadors will need to discuss the file again this week to get the cap
over the finishing line, Charlie Cooper writes in to report.
Price
fight: The European Commission proposed a cap of $65 to $70 per barrel to EU
ambassadors meeting last week. But, according to several EU diplomats, that was
considered too high by Russia-hawks including Poland and the Baltic states, who
pointed to the fact that such a cap is around the same price that Russian Urals
crude currently trades (it’s already discounted by around $20 compared to Brent
crude). Meanwhile, Greece, Malta and Cyprus are pushing for either a higher cap
that would affect fewer oil shipments, or some form of compensation for their
shipping industries.
What’s at
stake: “The break-even of Russian oil producers is at $12 to $20,” said one EU
diplomat, so “at this price level they can cover the costs. Every extra dollar
is a dollar for the Russian war budget.”
Get on with
it: Meanwhile, a senior diplomat from a country pushing for a higher cap told
POLITICO’s Nektaria Stamouli that “vital interests are at stake” and that EU
countries should not “punish ourselves more than the guilty ones.” But, they
added: “There is pressure from the U.S. as well for the oil price cap to be
adopted, both at an EU and to us at a national level.”
Zelenskyy’s
view: The Ukrainian president on Saturday called for the price cap to be set at
$30-$40 per barrel.
Watch out
for … talks formally resuming today.
IN OTHER
NEWS Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Share on Linkedin Share on Handclap1
LE MAIRE
SAYS FRANCE WENT ‘TOO FAR’ IN RELYING ON CONSULTANCIES: The French government
has relied too much on external consultants such as U.S. firm McKinsey, French
Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said Sunday. The admission came after
investigators launched probes into the role consultancies played in the 2017
and 2022 elections, amid allegations of irregular campaign financing and
suspicions of under-billing.
WHAT THE
FTX? The cryptocurrency world is reeling after the collapse of crypto exchange
FTX — but EU policymakers argue the bloc’s upcoming crypto rulebook, Markets in
Crypto-assets (MiCA), would prevent such scandals in the future, Gian
Volpicelli reports.
MUSK-BACKED
LOBBY GROUP WANTS EU TO FIGHT AI WEAPONS: A lobby group backed by Elon Musk and
associated with a controversial ideology popular among tech billionaires is
fighting to prevent killer robots from terminating humanity, and it’s taken
hold of Europe’s Artificial Intelligence Act to do so, Gian also reports.
ICYMI —
EUROPE’S ROCKET RIDDLE: The European Space Agency introduced a new cohort of
astronauts last week, but big questions remain over how they will actually ever
reach orbit, Joshua Posaner reports. The options aren’t exactly tempting: one
is Russia’s sanctions-hit Roscosmos; an alternative is Musk’s SpaceX.
IRAN READ:
Reporter Fariba Nawa has this story about Iranian LGBTQ+ activists who have
fled to Turkey, where they now live in fear for their lives. “My biggest fear
is being raped, it’s a nightmare I have,” says Mikaeil Alizadeh, who uses
social media to advocate for LGBTQ+ rights and gender equality in Iran.
**U.S.
President Joe Biden has signed an executive order on transatlantic data flows
that paves the way forward for a new EU-U.S. data agreement early next year.
What needs to happen between now and March 2023 in the EU? Tune in to our event
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AGENDA Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Share on Linkedin Share on Handclap10
— Kyiv
Investment Forum in Brussels from 9 a.m. Justice Commissioner Didier Reynders
among those participating. POLITICO’s Paola Tamma moderates panel at 1:20 p.m.
Full program. Watch.
—
Development ministers meet for their Council meeting in Brussels, 9 a.m.
—
Education, youth, culture and sports ministers meet for Council in Brussels.
Education session begins at 10 a.m.; press conference expected 1 p.m. Youth
session begins at 3 p.m. Watch.
— Monetary
dialogue with ECB President Christine Lagarde at European Parliament’s Economic
and Monetary Affairs Committee, 3 p.m. Watch.
—
Inauguration of the European Parliament’s Forum for Academic Freedom in
Brussels. Parliament President Roberta Metsola participates.
— 11th
Commission-to-Commission meeting between the EU and African Union.
— President
of the African Union Commission Moussa Faki in town; meets with Commission
President Ursula von der Leyen (time tbc) and European Council President
Charles Michel at 9 a.m.
— NATO
chief Jens Stoltenberg travels to Romania; meets President Klaus Iohannis —
press conference 4 p.m.; meets Prime Minister Nicolae Ciucă; meets Foreign
Minister Bogdan Aurescu — press statements at 4:35 p.m. Watch.
—
Commission Vice Presidents Frans Timmermans and Margaritis Schinas meet with Saudi
Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Adel Al-Jubeir.
—
Neighborhood Commissioner Olivér Várhelyi in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
—
Environment Commissioner Virginijus Sinkevičius in Vietnam; participates in
Green Economy and Forum Exhibition 2022; meets Vietnamese Prime Minister Phạm
Minh Chính, among others.
— G7
justice ministers meet in Berlin. Welcome dinner from 7 p.m.
BRUSSELS
CORNER Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Share on Linkedin Share on Handclap23
UGLY SIDE
OF THE BEAUTIFUL GAME: Police used tear gas and water cannons against crowds
who had set fires and thrown rocks at vehicles in central Brussels last night,
as fans turned violent in the aftermath of Morocco’s 2-0 victory against
Belgium in the football World Cup. Riot police were deployed to a Christmas
market and some public transport lines were shut down, with a group of young
Morocco fans smashing up a car and rental scooters. Eddy Wax has the details.
MONDAY
PODDY: Paul Adamson talks to the Economist’s Stanley Pignal about how Brussels
has changed over the past decade: “The big difference, since I was here 10
years ago, is POLITICO,” Pignal says, adding that we have “turbo-charged the
kind of bubble-vision, as I call it.”
NEW JOB:
Agnieszka Bartol will become the new director-general for communication and
information in the General Secretariat of the EU Council, starting in her new
post on May 1, 2023. She replaces Reijo Kemppinen, who retired earlier this
year.
BIRTHDAYS:
Former Latvian Prime Minister Māris Kučinskis; MEPs Lucia Ďuriš Nicholsonová,
Balázs Hidvéghi and Romana Jerković; Former MEP Liadh Ní Riada; Former French
PM Edouard Philippe, now the mayor of Le Havre; U.S. National Security Advisor
Jake Sullivan.
THANKS to
Paola Tamma, Charlie Cooper, Stuart Lau, Eddy Wax, Camille Gijs and our
producer Grace Stranger.
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