Are China’s lockdown protests the beginning of
the end for Xi Jinping?
Here’s what you need to know about the demonstrations
that swept across China in recent days.
BY STUART
LAU
NOVEMBER
29, 2022 9:43 PM CET
The wave of
demonstrations across China demanding an end to the draconian zero-COVID measures
is like nothing the country has seen in decades.
From
university campuses to busy streets in the downtown areas, people held up
pieces of white paper as a symbol of protest after a deadly fire in a Xinjiang
neighborhood under lockdown. The most dramatic moments happened over the
weekend, when protesters could be heard shouting "Xi Jinping, step
down."
It is a
brave and risky gesture to defy the Chinese president so publicly. Beijing's
strongman has only recently secured a third term in office, breaking with
tradition and consolidating his unchallenged power base.
POLITICO
breaks down what this means for China's leader.
How bad is
it for Xi?
So far,
there's no sign to suggest any significant damage to Xi's position at the top
of the Communist Party.
Nevertheless,
it is the first major show of resistance from the public under Xi's rule, and
the grievances directed against the top of the Chinese government are too loud
to be unheard.
Xi has made
zero-COVID a personal political project. With the public now openly opposing
the symbols of that policy — such as the strict PCR test requirements and mask
regulations — he will no doubt be seen as personally liable for the public
anger.
Ho-fung
Hung, an academic at Johns Hopkins University specializing in China's protest
movements, says the government and society "are in the process of seeking
a new equilibrium. There can be conflicts and instability in the process.”
Still, the
timing could have been worse for Xi, if the protests had taken place before the
20th Communist Party congress last month, when he was confirmed in his position
for a precedent-breaking third term.
How
significant is the public defiance?
The last
comparable episode was the 1989 student protest in Tiananmen Square, but back
then the demonstration was much larger in scale and occupied the iconic square
at the heart of Beijing.
Most of the
young people protesting against COVID restrictions this year had little or no
recollection of that deadly protest more than 30 years ago. Not only were they
not yet born, but there's also no footage of Tiananmen Square available under
the censorship regime.
In a way,
the most dangerous shock to Xi could be the political awakening of so many
young, educated minds who are ready publicly to come out against him.
Students
from more than 100 universities have shown solidarity with the protesters,
according to Cai Xia, a defector from the Communist Party's ideology school who
now lives in the U.S.
Is brutal
repression avoidable?
For now,
the police have refrained from a bloody crackdown on the protesters, even
though there were arrests. Cases of physical assaults were also reported, like
BBC journalist Ed Lawrence, who was covering the protest in Shanghai.
After an
intense weekend, the police presence was significantly beefed up on Monday.
Some of the streets in Shanghai, for instance, had been cordoned off with
barricades, turning some of the country's wealthiest neighborhoods into no-go
zones.
On Tuesday,
there was no word of protests in Beijing, Shanghai or other major mainland
cities due to the heavy police presence, according to the Associated Press.
At this
stage, it is unclear whether the unrest is over or whether the protesters are
simply waiting for their next opportunity.
Some
universities also announced plans to send students back home for the winter
break earlier than scheduled, in an apparent move to stop them from organizing
further protests.
How's the
market reacting?
Not great —
initially. The immediate reaction across global stock markets was pessimistic
on Monday, fuelled by a sense of political uncertainty.
The
benchmark Chinese market, Shanghai Composite, dropped by 2.2 percent briefly,
while the Shenzhen Component Index, with a focus on tech, fell by 0.7 percent.
On Tuesday,
however, both indexes rose 2 percent, as there were no reports of new protests
overnight. “Mass protests would deeply tilt the scales in favor of an even
weaker economy,” Stephen Innes, managing partner of SPI Asset Management, said.
How does
the West see it?
In the
U.K., Foreign Secretary James Cleverly weighed in. "Protests against the
Chinese government are rare and when they do happen, I think the world should
take notice, but I think the Chinese government should take notice,"
Cleverly told reporters.
European
Council President Charles Michel will arrive in Beijing on Thursday, as he
faces calls to send a strong message to Xi to respect the peaceful protests.
German
Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s spokesman questioned why China’s still not using
Western vaccines and instead relying on the policy of draconian lockdowns.
Speaking at
a regular press conference in Berlin on Monday, spokesperson Steffen Hebestreit
said Germany had "taken note" of the protests as well as
"reports about partly violent actions of the [Chinese] security forces
against the demonstrators."
In the
U.S., the Biden administration is responding cautiously, reflecting in part a
U.S. desire to stabilize a vital but increasingly adversarial relationship with
Beijing.
There were
no statements or tweets from President Joe Biden. Secretary of State Antony
Blinken and national security adviser Jake Sullivan also avoided comment.
Some
slightly critical comments came from an unnamed National Security Council
spokesperson.
“As we’ve
said, we think it’s going to be very difficult for the People’s Republic of
China to be able to contain this virus through their zero Covid strategy,” the
spokesperson said in a statement.
What are
Xi's options?
They're
limited. In the battle to contain the coronavirus, strict lockdown measures
have been Xi's preference from the start. China remains opposed to using
Western mRNA vaccines — which have proven to be much more effective in dealing
with the latest variants of the coronavirus. The number of cases in Beijing,
for instance, doubled over the weekend and remained on a rise by Tuesday.
Still, the
nationwide statistics over recent days — over 30,000 daily new cases — account
for only a tiny minority of the country's 1.4 billion population. Officially,
just over 5,200 have died from the virus since the pandemic began.
A sudden
removal of lockdown measures would likely trigger a surge in infections among a
population that has not been well vaccinated. Opting for Western vaccines,
however, would entail a very public loss of face for the man in charge. It
seems more of the same is the likeliest course of action in Beijing.
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