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Fears of a
modern religious conflict in Europe often stem from demographic shifts, rising
urban enclaves, and periodic extremist violence. However, sociologists and
political analysts emphasize that a large-scale religious war is not
inevitable. Preventing further cultural polarization requires deliberate policy
adjustments and societal integration strategies.
Risks and
Tensions
- Demographic shifts: Projections show rising Muslim
populations in major European urban centers, which can create social
anxiety and political friction over national identity.
- Urban segregation: High concentrations of recent
migrant communities in specific neighborhoods can hinder broad social
assimilation.
- Extremist friction: Flashpoints involving free
speech, perceived blasphemy, and radicalized networks test the limits of
secular toleranc
Western Europe's Muslim population is expected to reach 50 million by 2035. If formal policies are not enacted, Tibi said, it's "a recipe for civil war."
The
coming religious war in Europe and how it may be averted
Subhash
Kak
Apr 19,
2024
The Pew
Research Center estimates that by 2050 Europe’s Muslim population in several
countries could approach 20%, and for Sweden the figure could be as high as
30%. While one may celebrate it as a sign of diversity, history informs us that
such percentages are likely to trigger social and political conflict, and even
war.
As recent
migrants Muslims are concentrated in urban centers. They are nearly 40% of the
population in several London Boroughs; in Bradford they are 31%; in Birmingham
and Slough 30%; and in Leicester 24%. The Office for National Statistics (ONS)
data show that in 2021 the white British population of Birmingham fell to 43
per cent, and in London the figure declined to 37 per cent. Serious conflict
between Muslims and non-Muslims is likely to arise first in cities.
The
precedent for religious war in Europe already exists. In the 1990s, there was
brutal conflict in Yugoslavia that led to the creation of Islamic majority
states of Bosnia and Kosovo. There have been a series of terror attacks across
Europe. Four of the worst ones since 1980 took place between 2015 and 2017, and
in the one in Paris in 2015, gunmen directed by ISIS murdered 130 people at
various sites in the city. Jihadi efforts to kill people in Europe continue to
this day.
The use
of terror to achieve political power is one aspect of an undeclared World War
3.
This
essay presents factors that will make it difficult for Europe to assimilate
this minority (unlike others) but also speaks of reforms that may lead to
conciliation.
The word
Islam means submission and in it the believers are enjoined to follow the
Shari’ah (Islamic law), wherein lies the call for an unceasing conflict with
the non-believers. [For a scholarly summary of the religious sources of Islamic
terrorism, see here.]
Pew
research informs that most Muslims support Shari’ah. In many Muslim countries
more than 80% want it to be the law of the land with many agreeing that it
should apply to all. There is general backing for a single interpretation of
Shari’ah with no room for dissent. The support for death penalty for leaving
Islam is as high as 86% in Egypt, 82% in Jordan, 79% in Afghanistan, and 76% in
Pakistan. Many migrants in Europe come from countries with extremely regressive
views on religious freedom.
Shari’ah
includes penalties such as whippings or cutting off the hands of thieves and
robbers. The support for stoning for adultery is as high as 89% in Pakistan and
85% in Afghanistan. It is true that some other religions also have books that
speak of violence, but leaders of these other religions have generally
disavowed the material that is offensive to the spirit of modernity, but this
has not occurred in Islam as we can see in the Pew Research figures.
Pew
Research
The
danger of war is also due to a profound misunderstanding of Islam in Europe by
governments leading to policy decisions that have ended up strengthening the
extremists. This was pointed out most notably by Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed,
foreign minister of UAE at a conference in 2017. He said:
There
will come a time when we will see far more radical extremists and terrorists
coming out of Europe because of a lack of decision making and trying to be
politically correct or assuming that they know the Middle East and they know
Islam and know the others far better than we do. I’m sorry but that is pure
ignorance.
Below are
some main points from an excellent summary of Islamic law prepared by the US
military (I have not changed the spelling convention used in this document).
This highlights theological beliefs that lead to extremist behavior [Ref 1].
Framework
for Shari’ah (Islamic Law).
Islam
defines itself as a complete way of life — social, cultural, religious,
military, and political — governed by Islamic Law (Shari’ah). The Shari’ah is
primarily derived from the Qur’an and the Sunnah (the collection of the Hadith
and sayings about the prophet’s life).
There are
hundreds of thousands of Hadith, which have been evaluated by Islamic Legal
Scholars (Jurists) as to their validity based on their chain of transmission
from the Prophet to the reporting author. The Hadith are categorized as mawdu
(false), munkar (ignored), da’if (weak), hasan (good), sahih (sound), and
mutawatir (strongest, most rigorously authenticated).
There are
six primary Hadith and they are, in rank order, Bukhari, Muslim, Abu Dawud,
ai-Sugra, Tirmidhi, and Ibn Majah, of which the first two (Bukhari and Muslim)
are considered the most reliable. In Islamic Law, Mutawatir Hadith from Bukhari
rises to the level of being second only to the Qur’an.
Dar al
Harb / Dar al Islam. In Islamic Law, the entire world is divided into the Dar
al Harb, “the house or abode of war,” and the Dar al Islam, “the house or abode
of peace.”
All lands
which are not under Muslim control and ruled by Shari’ah, are considered Dar al
Harb — enemy lands. All non- Muslims, not submitted to Islamic Law in Muslim
lands are considered “enemy persons, persons from the territory of war.” The
term “non-combatants” does not exist in Islamic Law. All lands occupied by
Muslim forces at any time in history are considered “Muslim Lands.”
Relations
with non-Muslims. It is a permanent command in Islam for Muslims to hate and
despise Jews and Christians and not take them as friends. This comes from both
the Qur’an as well as from the sacred hadith scholars Bukhari and Muslim.
The
Prophet said, “The hour [of judgment] will not come until the Muslims fight the
Jews and kill them. it will not come until the Jew hides behind rocks and
trees. it will not come until. the rocks or the trees say, ‘0 Muslim! 0 servant
of God! There is a Jew behind me. Come and kill him.’” [Sacred Hadith, Bukhari,
103/6, number 2926]
Jihad.
Jihad is a permanent obligation on the Muslim community until the entire world
is made the Dar al Islam.
Islamic
Law provides three options for ‘People of the Book’ (those who had a holy book
prior to Muhammad): (1) They may convert to Islam; (2) they may be killed; or
(3) they may pay the jizya (non-Muslim tax) and be subjugated to Islamic Law
having little rights as non-Muslims under the law.
Pagans
and others who had no holy book prior to Muhammad must either convert to Islam
or be killed.
Slander
and apostasy. in Islamic Law, anyone who criticizes a Muslim, Islam, or the
Prophet is guilty of slander. The punishment for slander in Islamic Law is
death.
Apostasy
is when a Muslim leaves Islam. This is a capital crime and is punishable by
death. There is a requirement for the Muslim to be advised of his error before
he is killed.
The
quandary of the religious man
The
Shari’ah framework otherizes the non-Muslim who is called by the pejorative
term “kafir”. It is natural, therefore, for the observant Muslim to remain in
continuing conflict with non-Muslims.
Praying
aggressively in public spaces in non-Islamic countries is one consequence of
this framework. It also explains why Charlie Hebdo murders took place, or why
ISIS established its reign of terror.
The
Hadith contain material that extremist preachers use to provoke their
congregants to fight against real or perceived injustice.
Most
significantly, Muslim migrants in the West do not wish to assimilate in the
host culture.
Polygyny
as a significant reason
Scholars
have argued that scarcity of mating partners for many young males due to the
practice of polygyny in Islamic societies creates the perfect conditions for
extreme violence. If some people have multiple wives, then there will be
sharply reduced number of available mates for non-alpha males.
Polygyny
creates pressures both on males who have multiple mates to increase their
social status, making it even harder for have-nots to be successful, and on
those who have no mates to do extraordinary acts to rise above others. The low
status males are sometimes ready to sacrifice their life in a suicide bombing
and become shaheed (martyr) for the promise of many virgins in heaven.
According to Miller and Kanazawa (2007): “[Polygyny is] also often associated
with lack of female autonomy in marriage and the union of older men with much
younger wives, both of which trends are also associated with less female choice
in the use of contraception and abortion… Across all societies, polygyny makes
men more violent, increasing crimes such as murder and rape, even after
controlling for such obvious factors as economic development, economic
inequality, population density, the level of democracy and political factors in
the region.”
The
Koranism reform advocated by MBS
A good
sign is that the current ruler of Saudi Arabia, Mohammad bin Salman, is in
favor of fundamental reform and discarding most of the Hadith and other
post-Qu’ran material. He speaks of the need for a new contemporary
“interpretation” of the Koran (the alternate spelling “Koran” has been used in
reports on MBS). In the reformed version of Islam, there will be no more
stoning, scourging, killing apostates and homosexuals.
The
reformed version is being called Koranism; it is a view that rejects the
authority of the hadiths and supports the idea that interpretations of Koranic
texts should be consistent with scientific knowledge, humanism, and values of
the host culture. Koranism is in favor of each country having its own Islam
that is assimilated into the host culture.
According
to MBS, “The government, where Sharia is concerned, has to implement
regulations and teachings based on mutawatir hadith (with multiple narrators),
and to look into the veracity and reliability of ahad hadiths (with only one
narrator), and to disregard khabar hadiths (based on hearsay) entirely.” [Ref
2]
MBS
presents a powerful argument. He says that if modern Muslims continue to be
guided by scholars and jurists of the olden times, they are then privileging or
even deifying human beings. He is thus arguing for a direct connection between
God and man, wherein the individual retains the agency to reach his or her own
understanding.
I think
there will be inter-religious harmony if the Islamic world adopts MBS’s
reforms. But there is no certainty that this will happen, and the Islamic world
most likely will have conflict between its sects over any proposed changes.
Furthermore, given that in many countries there is support for continuing with
the single interpretation of Shari’ah, it is unlikely that reforms will be
easily implemented.
In any
event, a conversation on reforms as advocated by MBS can become a catalyst for
change.
If
nothing is done, change may be forced on Islamic society as has happened in
Xinjiang.
Governance
models
Another
possibility is that Europe will transition away from liberal democracy to a
Singapore style governance in which there will be restrictions such as
prohibition of speech that breeds ill will or causes disharmony within the
multiracial, multi-religious society.
In this
governance there will be stiff fines or even jail for minor misdemeanors and
frequent use of capital punishment for murder and drug trafficking.
It is
possible that Europe will use massive surveillance to nab bad actors to keep
peace. But that will succeed only so long the number of such actors is small.
Just as
the United States used Islamic extremists in Afghanistan and Syria as proxies
for their fight against the Soviet Union/ Russia, inimical powers might use
Islamic extremists to create mayhem in Europe.
After
massive demographic transformation, Muslims may wish to carve out separate
lands for themselves in Europe, and there may be a transfer of population as
happened during India’s Partition.
Part 4 —
From prosperity to despair
References
1.
Executive Services Directorate of US DoD document on Islam
2.
Mohammed Bin Salman’s proposed reforms
3.
Thayer, B.A. 2009. Considering population and war: a critical and neglected
aspect of conflict studies. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 364(1532),
3081–3092.
4. Miller
A. S., Kanazawa S. 2007. Ten politically incorrect truths about human nature.
Psychol. Today, 40, 89–95.
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